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Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:External validation of prognostic risk models is essential before they are implemented in clinical practice. This study evaluated the recently developed MEGNA score for survival prediction after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), with a focus on the direct comparison of its prognostic value to that of the current International Union Against Cancer (UICC)/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer staging system. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Between 1997 and 2018, 417 consecutive patients with ICC were referred to our tertiary care centre and were retrospectively identified out of a dedicated clinical database. Of this group, 203 patients underwent surgical resection and met the inclusion criteria. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the predictors of the recently proposed MEGNA score regarding overall survival (OS). Concordance indices (C-indices) and integrated Brier scores (IBS) were calculated to assess the ability of both the MEGNA score and the current (8th) edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system to predict individual patient outcome. RESULTS:Stratification according to the MEGNA score resulted in a median OS of 34.5 months, 26.1 months, 21.5 months, and 16.6 months for MEGNA scores 0, 1, 2, and ?3, respectively (log rank p < 0.001). However, of the five factors that contribute to the MEGNA score, age > 60 years was not a predictor for poor OS in our cohort. The C-index for the MEGNA score was 0.58, the IBS was 0.193. The 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC system performed slightly better, with a C-index of 0.61 and an IBS of 0.186. CONCLUSION:The ability of the MEGNA score to predict individual patient outcome was only moderate in this external validation. Its prognostic value did not reach that of the more widely known and used UICC/AJCC system. However, neither scoring system performed well enough to support clear-cut clinical decisions.

SUBMITTER: Hahn F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6996849 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system.

Hahn Felix F Müller Lukas L Mähringer-Kunz Aline A Schotten Sebastian S Düber Christoph C Hinrichs Jan B JB Maschke Sabine K SK Galle Peter R PR Bartsch Fabian F Lang Hauke H Weinmann Arndt A Kloeckner Roman R

PloS one 20200203 2

<h4>Background</h4>External validation of prognostic risk models is essential before they are implemented in clinical practice. This study evaluated the recently developed MEGNA score for survival prediction after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), with a focus on the direct comparison of its prognostic value to that of the current International Union Against Cancer (UICC)/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer staging system.<h4>Material and methods</h4>Between 1997 a ...[more]

PMID: 32012198

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Project description:AimThis study aims to improve the classification performance of the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) by proposing the Khon Kaen University (KKU) staging system developed in cholangiocarcinoma-prevalent Northeast Thailand.MethodFour hundred eighty-eight patients with pCCA who underwent partial hepatectomy between 2002 and 2017 at the Srinagarind Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Thailand, were included. Overall survival (OS) related to clinicopathological features was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Logrank test was performed in univariate analysis to compare OS data of clinicopathological features to determine risk factors for poor survival. Significant features were further analyzed by multivariate analysis (Cox regression) to identify prognostic factors which were then employed to modify the eighth AJCC staging system.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that growth pattern (HR = 4.67-19.72, p < 0.001), moderately and poorly differentiated histological grades (HR = 2.31-4.99, p < 0.05 and 0.001, respectively), lymph node metastasis N1 and N2 (HR = 1.37 and 2.18, p < 0.05 and 0.01, respectively), and distant metastasis (HR = 2.11, p < 0.001) were independent factors when compared to their respective reference groups. There was a clear separation of patients with pCCA into KKU stage: I [OS = 116 months (mo.)], II (OS = 46 mo.), IIIA (OS = 24 mo.), IIIB (11 mo.), IVA (OS = 7 mo.), and IVB (OS = 6 mo.).ConclusionThe new staging system was based on the incorporation of growth patterns to modify the eighth AJCC staging system. The classification performance demonstrated that the KKU staging system was able to classify and distinctly separate patients with pCCA into those with good and poor outcomes. It was also able to improve the stratification performance and discriminative ability of different stages of pCCA classification better than the eighth AJCC staging system. Hence, the KKU staging system is proposed as an alternative model to augment the accuracy of survival prognostication and treatment performance for patients with pCCA.

Dataset Information

Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system.

Publications

Risk prediction in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Direct comparison of the MEGNA score and the 8th edition of the UICC/AJCC Cancer staging system.

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