Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is combination of progressive lung diseases. The diagnosis of COPD is generally based on the pulmonary function testing, however, difficulties underlie in prognosis of smokers or early stage of COPD patients due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the pathogenesis. Computational analyses of omics technologies are expected as one of the solutions to resolve such complexities. METHODS:We obtained transcriptomic data by in vitro testing with exposures of human bronchial epithelial cells to the inducers for early events of COPD to identify the potential descriptive marker genes. With the identified genes, the machine learning technique was employed with the publicly available transcriptome data obtained from the lung specimens of COPD and non-COPD patients to develop the model that can reflect the risk continuum across smoking and COPD. RESULTS:The expression levels of 15 genes were commonly altered among in vitro tissues exposed to known inducible factors for earlier events of COPD (exposure to cigarette smoke, DNA damage, oxidative stress, and inflammation), and 10 of these genes and their corresponding proteins have not previously reported as COPD biomarkers. Although these genes were able to predict each group with 65% accuracy, the accuracy with which they were able to discriminate COPD subjects from smokers was only 29%. Furthermore, logistic regression enabled the conversion of gene expression levels to a numerical index, which we named the "potential risk factor (PRF)" index. The highest significant index value was recorded in COPD subjects (0.56 at the median), followed by smokers (0.30) and non-smokers (0.02). In vitro tissues exposed to cigarette smoke displayed dose-dependent increases of PRF, suggesting its utility for prospective risk estimation of tobacco products. CONCLUSIONS:Our experimental-based transcriptomic analysis identified novel genes associated with COPD, and the 15 genes could distinguish smokers and COPD subjects from non-smokers via machine-learning classification with remarkable accuracy. We also suggested a PRF index that can quantitatively reflect the risk continuum across smoking and COPD pathogenesis, and we believe it will provide an improved understanding of smoking effects and new insights into COPD.

Project description:BackgroundAirflow limitation is a critical physiological feature in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), for which long-term exposure to noxious substances, including tobacco smoke, is an established risk. However, not all long-term smokers develop COPD, meaning that other risk factors exist.ObjectiveThis study aimed to predict the risk factors for COPD diagnosis using machine learning in an annual medical check-up database.MethodsIn this retrospective observational cohort study (ARTDECO [Analysis of Risk Factors to Detect COPD]), annual medical check-up records for all Hitachi Ltd employees in Japan collected from April 1998 to March 2019 were analyzed. Employees who provided informed consent via an opt-out model were screened and those aged 30 to 75 years without a prior diagnosis of COPD/asthma or a history of cancer were included. The database included clinical measurements (eg, pulmonary function tests) and questionnaire responses. To predict the risk factors for COPD diagnosis within a 3-year period, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree machine learning (XGBoost) method was applied as a primary approach, with logistic regression as a secondary method. A diagnosis of COPD was made when the ratio of the prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to prebronchodilator forced vital capacity (FVC) was <0.7 during two consecutive examinations.ResultsOf the 26,101 individuals screened, 1213 met the exclusion criteria, and thus, 24,815 individuals were included in the analysis. The top 10 predictors for COPD diagnosis were FEV1/FVC, smoking status, allergic symptoms, cough, pack years, hemoglobin A1c, serum albumin, mean corpuscular volume, percent predicted vital capacity, and percent predicted value of FEV1. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the XGBoost model and the logistic regression model were 0.956 and 0.943, respectively.ConclusionsUsing a machine learning model in this longitudinal database, we identified a number of parameters as risk factors other than smoking exposure or lung function to support general practitioners and occupational health physicians to predict the development of COPD. Further research to confirm our results is warranted, as our analysis involved a database used only in Japan.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major public health problem and cause of mortality worldwide. However, COPD in the early stage is usually not recognized and diagnosed. It is necessary to establish a risk model to predict COPD development. METHODS:A total of 441 COPD patients and 192 control subjects were recruited, and 101 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were determined using the MassArray assay. With 5 clinical features as well as SNPs, 6 predictive models were established and evaluated in the training set and test set by the confusion matrix AU-ROC, AU-PRC, sensitivity (recall), specificity, accuracy, F1 score, MCC, PPV (precision) and NPV. The selected features were ranked. RESULTS:Nine SNPs were significantly associated with COPD. Among them, 6 SNPs (rs1007052, OR?=?1.671, P?=?0.010; rs2910164, OR?=?1.416, P?<?0.037; rs473892, OR?=?1.473, P?<?0.044; rs161976, OR?=?1.594, P?<?0.044; rs159497, OR?=?1.445, P?<?0.045; and rs9296092, OR?=?1.832, P?<?0.045) were risk factors for COPD, while 3 SNPs (rs8192288, OR?=?0.593, P?<?0.015; rs20541, OR?=?0.669, P?<?0.018; and rs12922394, OR?=?0.651, P?<?0.022) were protective factors for COPD development. In the training set, KNN, LR, SVM, DT and XGboost obtained AU-ROC values above 0.82 and AU-PRC values above 0.92. Among these models, XGboost obtained the highest AU-ROC (0.94), AU-PRC (0.97), accuracy (0.91), precision (0.95), F1 score (0.94), MCC (0.77) and specificity (0.85), while MLP obtained the highest sensitivity (recall) (0.99) and NPV (0.87). In the validation set, KNN, LR and XGboost obtained AU-ROC and AU-PRC values above 0.80 and 0.85, respectively. KNN had the highest precision (0.82), both KNN and LR obtained the same highest accuracy (0.81), and KNN and LR had the same highest F1 score (0.86). Both DT and MLP obtained sensitivity (recall) and NPV values above 0.94 and 0.84, respectively. In the feature importance analyses, we identified that AQCI, age, and BMI had the greatest impact on the predictive abilities of the models, while SNPs, sex and smoking were less important. CONCLUSIONS:The KNN, LR and XGboost models showed excellent overall predictive power, and the use of machine learning tools combining both clinical and SNP features was suitable for predicting the risk of COPD development.

Project description:BackgroundTelemonitoring of symptoms and physiological signs has been suggested as a means of early detection of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, with a view to instituting timely treatment. However, algorithms to identify exacerbations result in frequent false-positive results and increased workload. Machine learning, when applied to predictive modelling, can determine patterns of risk factors useful for improving prediction quality.ObjectiveOur objectives were to (1) establish whether machine learning techniques applied to telemonitoring datasets improve prediction of hospital admissions and decisions to start corticosteroids, and (2) determine whether the addition of weather data further improves such predictions.MethodsWe used daily symptoms, physiological measures, and medication data, with baseline demography, COPD severity, quality of life, and hospital admissions from a pilot and large randomized controlled trial of telemonitoring in COPD. We linked weather data from the United Kingdom meteorological service. We used feature selection and extraction techniques for time series to construct up to 153 predictive patterns (features) from symptom, medication, and physiological measurements. We used the resulting variables to construct predictive models fitted to training sets of patients and compared them with common symptom-counting algorithms.ResultsWe had a mean 363 days of telemonitoring data from 135 patients. The two most practical traditional score-counting algorithms, restricted to cases with complete data, resulted in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) estimates of 0.60 (95% CI 0.51-0.69) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.50-0.67) for predicting admissions based on a single day's readings. However, in a real-world scenario allowing for missing data, with greater numbers of patient daily data and hospitalizations (N=57,150, N+=55, respectively), the performance of all the traditional algorithms fell, including those based on 2 days' data. One of the most frequently used algorithms performed no better than chance. All considered machine learning models demonstrated significant improvements; the best machine learning algorithm based on 57,150 episodes resulted in an aggregated AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80). Adding weather data measurements did not improve the predictive performance of the best model (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.79). To achieve an 80% true-positive rate (sensitivity), the traditional algorithms were associated with an 80% false-positive rate: our algorithm halved this rate to approximately 40% (specificity approximately 60%). The machine learning algorithm was moderately superior to the best symptom-counting algorithm (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.79 vs AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63-0.68) at predicting the need for corticosteroids.ConclusionsEarly detection and management of COPD remains an important goal given its huge personal and economic costs. Machine learning approaches, which can be tailored to an individual's baseline profile and can learn from experience of the individual patient, are superior to existing predictive algorithms and show promise in achieving this goal.Trial registrationInternational Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN96634935; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN96634935 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/722YkuhAz).

Dataset Information

When Harry Met Sally, or When Machine Learning Met Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

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