Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is combination of progressive lung diseases. The diagnosis of COPD is generally based on the pulmonary function testing, however, difficulties underlie in prognosis of smokers or early stage of COPD patients due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the pathogenesis. Computational analyses of omics technologies are expected as one of the solutions to resolve such complexities. METHODS:We obtained transcriptomic data by in vitro testing with exposures of human bronchial epithelial cells to the inducers for early events of COPD to identify the potential descriptive marker genes. With the identified genes, the machine learning technique was employed with the publicly available transcriptome data obtained from the lung specimens of COPD and non-COPD patients to develop the model that can reflect the risk continuum across smoking and COPD. RESULTS:The expression levels of 15 genes were commonly altered among in vitro tissues exposed to known inducible factors for earlier events of COPD (exposure to cigarette smoke, DNA damage, oxidative stress, and inflammation), and 10 of these genes and their corresponding proteins have not previously reported as COPD biomarkers. Although these genes were able to predict each group with 65% accuracy, the accuracy with which they were able to discriminate COPD subjects from smokers was only 29%. Furthermore, logistic regression enabled the conversion of gene expression levels to a numerical index, which we named the "potential risk factor (PRF)" index. The highest significant index value was recorded in COPD subjects (0.56 at the median), followed by smokers (0.30) and non-smokers (0.02). In vitro tissues exposed to cigarette smoke displayed dose-dependent increases of PRF, suggesting its utility for prospective risk estimation of tobacco products. CONCLUSIONS:Our experimental-based transcriptomic analysis identified novel genes associated with COPD, and the 15 genes could distinguish smokers and COPD subjects from non-smokers via machine-learning classification with remarkable accuracy. We also suggested a PRF index that can quantitatively reflect the risk continuum across smoking and COPD pathogenesis, and we believe it will provide an improved understanding of smoking effects and new insights into COPD.

Project description:The study developed accurate explainable machine learning (ML) models for predicting first-time acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, AECOPD) at an individual level. We conducted a retrospective case-control study. A total of 606 patients with COPD were screened for eligibility using registry data from the COPD Pay-for-Performance Program (COPD P4P program) database at Changhua Christian Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. Recursive feature elimination technology was used to select the optimal subset of features for predicting the occurrence of AECOPD. We developed four ML models to predict first-time AECOPD, and the highest-performing model was applied. Finally, an explainable approach based on ML and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and a local explanation method were used to evaluate the risk of AECOPD and to generate individual explanations of the model's decisions. The gradient boosting machine (GBM) and support vector machine (SVM) models exhibited superior discrimination ability (area under curve [AUC] = 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.745-0.921] and AUC = 0.836 [95% CI 0.757-0.915], respectively). The decision curve analysis indicated that the GBM model exhibited a higher net benefit in distinguishing patients at high risk for AECOPD when the threshold probability was <0.55. The COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the symptom of wheezing were the two most important features and exhibited the highest SHAP values, followed by monocyte count and white blood cell (WBC) count, coughing, red blood cell (RBC) count, breathing rate, oral long-acting bronchodilator use, chronic pulmonary disease (CPD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and others. Higher CAT score; monocyte, WBC, and RBC counts; BMI; diastolic blood pressure (DBP); neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; and eosinophil and lymphocyte counts were associated with AECOPD. The presence of symptoms (wheezing, dyspnea, coughing), chronic disease (CPD, congestive heart failure [CHF], sleep disorders, and pneumonia), and use of COPD medications (triple-therapy long-acting bronchodilators, short-acting bronchodilators, oral long-acting bronchodilators, and antibiotics) were also positively associated with AECOPD. A high breathing rate, heart rate, or systolic blood pressure and methylxanthine use were negatively correlated with AECOPD. The ML model was able to accurately assess the risk of AECOPD. The ML model combined with SHAP and the local explanation method were able to provide interpretable and visual explanations of individualized risk predictions, which may assist clinical physicians in understanding the effects of key features in the model and the model's decision-making process.

Project description:Objectives: Cigarette smoking has been recognized as a predisposing factor for both osteoporosis (OP) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study aimed to investigate the shared gene signatures affected by cigarette smoking in OP and COPD through gene expression profiling. Materials and methods: Microarray datasets (GSE11784, GSE13850, GSE10006, and GSE103174) were obtained from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and analyzed for differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method and a random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm were used to identify candidate biomarkers. The diagnostic value of the method was assessed using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Finally, immune cell infiltration was analyzed to identify dysregulated immune cells in cigarette smoking-induced COPD. Results: In the smoking-related OP and COPD datasets, 2858 and 280 DEGs were identified, respectively. WGCNA revealed 982 genes strongly correlated with smoking-related OP, of which 32 overlapped with the hub genes of COPD. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis showed that the overlapping genes were enriched in the immune system category. Using LASSO regression and RF machine learning, six candidate genes were identified, and a logistic regression model was constructed, which had high diagnostic values for both the training set and external validation datasets. The area under the curves (AUCs) were 0.83 and 0.99, respectively. Immune cell infiltration analysis revealed dysregulation in several immune cells, and six immune-associated genes were identified for smoking-related OP and COPD, namely, mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma translocation protein 1 (MALT1), tissue-type plasminogen activator (PLAT), sodium channel 1 subunit alpha (SCNN1A), sine oculis homeobox 3 (SIX3), sperm-associated antigen 9 (SPAG9), and vacuolar protein sorting 35 (VPS35). Conclusion: The findings suggest that immune cell infiltration profiles play a significant role in the shared pathogenesis of smoking-related OP and COPD. The results could provide valuable insights for developing novel therapeutic strategies for managing these disorders, as well as shedding light on their pathogenesis.

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When Harry Met Sally, or When Machine Learning Met Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

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