Dataset Information

Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

ABSTRACT: Coastal flooding is increasingly common in many areas. However, the degree of inundation and associated disruption depend on local topography as well as the distribution of people, infrastructure and economic activity along the coast. Local measures of flooding that are comparable over large areas are difficult to obtain. Here we use the remarkability of flood events, measured by flood-related posts on social media, to estimate county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties along the east coast of the United States. While thresholds in most counties are statistically-indistinguishable from minor flood thresholds of nearby tide gauges, we find evidence that several areas experience noticeable flooding at tide heights lower than existing flood thresholds. These 22 counties include several major cities such as Miami, New York, and Boston, with a total population over 13 million. Our analysis implies that large populations might currently be exposed to nuisance flooding not identified via standard measures.

SUBMITTER: Moore FC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7000679 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

Moore Frances C FC Obradovich Nick N

Nature communications 20200204 1

Coastal flooding is increasingly common in many areas. However, the degree of inundation and associated disruption depend on local topography as well as the distribution of people, infrastructure and economic activity along the coast. Local measures of flooding that are comparable over large areas are difficult to obtain. Here we use the remarkability of flood events, measured by flood-related posts on social media, to estimate county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties along the ea ...[more]

PMID: 32019916

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Project description:For facilitating tuberculosis (TB) control, we used a whole-genome sequencing (WGS)-based approach to delineate transmission networks in a country with an intermediate burden of TB. A cluster was defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates with identical genotypes, and an outbreak was defined as clustered cases with epidemiological links (epi-links). To refine a cluster predefined using space oligonucleotide typing and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit variable tandem repeat typing, we analyzed one pansusceptible TB (C1) and three multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB (C2-C4) clusters from different scenarios. Pansusceptible TB cluster (C1) consisting of 28 cases had ≤5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) difference between their isolates. C1 was a definite outbreak, with cases attending the same junior high school in 2012. Three MDR-TB clusters (C2-C4) with distinct genotypes were identified, each consisting of 12-22 cases. Some of the cases had either ≤5 or ≤15 SNPs difference with clear or probable epi-links. Of note, even though WGS could effectively assist TB contact tracing, we still observed missing epi-links in some cases within the same cluster. Our results showed that thresholds of ≤5 and ≤15 SNPs difference between isolates were used to categorize definite and probable TB transmission, respectively. Furthermore, a higher SNP threshold might be required to define an MDR-TB outbreak. WGS still needs to be combined with classical epidemiological methods for improving outbreak investigations. Importantly, different SNP thresholds have to be applied to define outbreaks.ImportanceTB is a chronic disease. Depending on host factors and TB burden, clusters of cases may continue to increase for several years. Conventional genotyping methods overestimate TB transmission, hampering precise detection of outbreaks and comprehensive surveillance. WGS can be used to obtain SNP information of M. tuberculosis to improve discriminative limitations of conventional methods and to strengthen delineation of transmission networks. It is important to define the country-specific SNP thresholds for investigation of transmission. This study demonstrated the use of thresholds of ≤5 and ≤15 SNPs difference between isolates to categorize definite and probable transmission, respectively. Different SNP thresholds should be applied while a higher cutoff was required to define an MDR-TB outbreak. The utilization of SNP thresholds proves to be crucial for guiding public health interventions, eliminating the need for unnecessary public health actions, and potentially uncovering undisclosed TB transmissions.

Project description:Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

Dataset Information

Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

Publications

Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

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