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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

ABSTRACT: Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

SUBMITTER: Riou J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7001239 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

Riou Julien J Althaus Christian L CL

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20200101 4

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number <i>R0</i> of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenz ...[more]

PMID: 32019669

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Project description:BackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission and epidemiological parameters. In particular, accumulating evidence points to a substantial fraction of asymptomatic or subclinical infections, which influences our understanding of the transmission potential and severity of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government-chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020 reached values at 3.49 (95% CrI 3.39-3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23 in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95% CrI 0.81-0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e., cumulative infections) estimated at 1,906,634 (95% CrI 1,373,500-2,651,124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95% CrI 13.5-26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI 0.03-0.06%) and 0.12% (95% CrI 0.08-0.17%), respectively, estimates that are substantially smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%.ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, during January-February 2020 using an ecological modeling approach that is suitable to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems. Our estimate of time-delay adjusted IFR falls in the range of the median IFR estimates based on multiple serological studies conducted in several areas of the world.

Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in 5,817,385 reported cases and 362,705 deaths worldwide through May, 30, 2020,† including 1,761,503 aggregated reported cases and 103,700 deaths in the United States.§ Previous analyses during February-early April 2020 indicated that age ?65 years and underlying health conditions were associated with a higher risk for severe outcomes, which were less common among children aged <18 years (1-3). This report describes demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, symptoms, and outcomes among 1,320,488 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases individually reported to CDC during January 22-May 30, 2020. Cumulative incidence, 403.6 cases per 100,000 persons,¶ was similar among males (401.1) and females (406.0) and highest among persons aged ?80 years (902.0). Among 599,636 (45%) cases with known information, 33% of persons were Hispanic or Latino of any race (Hispanic), 22% were non-Hispanic black (black), and 1.3% were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN). Among 287,320 (22%) cases with sufficient data on underlying health conditions, the most common were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%), and chronic lung disease (18%). Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations were six times higher among patients with a reported underlying condition (45.4%) than those without reported underlying conditions (7.6%). Deaths were 12 times higher among patients with reported underlying conditions (19.5%) compared with those without reported underlying conditions (1.6%). The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be severe, particularly in certain population groups. These preliminary findings underscore the need to build on current efforts to collect and analyze case data, especially among those with underlying health conditions. These data are used to monitor trends in COVID-19 illness, identify and respond to localized incidence increase, and inform policies and practices designed to reduce transmission in the United States.

Dataset Information

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

Publications

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

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