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Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

ABSTRACT: Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces as well as environmental factors on population dynamics with a spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical approach. We found red squirrel abundance to be positively associated with both the abundance of Norway spruce (Picea abies) cones and the predators, the pine marten (Martes martes) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), probably due to shared habitat preferences. The results suggest that red squirrel populations are synchronized over remarkably large distances, on a scale of hundreds of kilometres, and that this synchrony is mainly driven by similarly spatially autocorrelated spruce cone crop. Our research demonstrates how a bottom-up effect can drive spatial synchrony in consumer populations on a very large scale of hundreds of kilometres, and also how an explicit spatiotemporal approach can improve model performance for fluctuating populations.

SUBMITTER: Turkia T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7002333 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

Turkia Tytti T Jousimo Jussi J Tiainen Juha J Helle Pekka P Rintala Jukka J Hokkanen Tatu T Valkama Jari J Selonen Vesa V

Oecologia 20200111 2

Spatial synchrony between populations emerges from endogenous and exogenous processes, such as intra- and interspecific interactions and abiotic factors. Understanding factors contributing to synchronous population dynamics help to better understand what determines abundance of a species. This study focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics in the Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) using snow-track data from Finland from 29 years. We disentangled the effects of bottom-up and top-down forces ...[more]

PMID: 31927627

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Project description:Infectious disease introduced by non-native species is increasingly cited as a facilitator of native population declines, but direct evidence may be lacking due to inadequate population and disease prevalence data surrounding an outbreak. Previous indirect evidence and theoretical models support squirrelpox virus (SQPV) as being potentially involved in the decline of red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) following the introduction of the non-native gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) to the United Kingdom. The red squirrel is a major UK conservation concern and understanding its continuing decline is important for any attempt to mitigate the decline. The red squirrel-gray squirrel system is also exemplary of the interplay between infectious disease (apparent competition) and direct competition in driving the replacement of a native by an invasive species. Time series data from Merseyside are presented on squirrel abundance and squirrelpox disease (SQPx) incidence, to determine the effect of the pathogen and the non-native species on the native red squirrel populations. Analysis indicates that SQPx in red squirrels has a significant negative impact on squirrel densities and their population growth rate (PGR). There is little evidence for a direct gray squirrel impact; only gray squirrel presence (but not density) proved to influence red squirrel density, but not red squirrel PGR. The dynamics of red SQPx cases are largely determined by previous red SQPx cases, although previous infection of local gray squirrels also feature, and thus, SQPV-infected gray squirrels are identified as potentially initiating outbreaks of SQPx in red squirrels. Retrospective serology indicates that approximately 8% of red squirrels exposed to SQPV may survive infection during an epidemic. This study further highlights the UK red squirrel - gray squirrel system as a classic example of a native species population decline strongly facilitated by infectious disease introduced by a non-native species. It is therefore paramount that disease prevention and control measures are integral in attempts to conserve red squirrels in the United Kingdom.

Dataset Information

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

Publications

Large-scale spatial synchrony in red squirrel populations driven by a bottom-up effect.

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