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Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

ABSTRACT: AIMS:To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level. DESIGN:time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:Data were aggregated from 54?847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England. MEASUREMENTS:The input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e-cigarettes, (b) NRT over-the-counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face-to-face behavioural support; (3) use of roll-your-own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio-economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate. FINDINGS:The licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073-1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e-cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011-0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009-0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001-0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION:In England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e-cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.

SUBMITTER: Beard E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7004132 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

Beard Emma E Jackson Sarah E SE West Robert R Kuipers Mirte A G MAG Brown Jamie J

Addiction (Abingdon, England) 20191201 2

<h4>Aims</h4>To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level.<h4>Design</h4>time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling.<h4>Setting and participants</h4>Data were aggregated from 54 847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in Eng ...[more]

PMID: 31626370

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Project description:AimTo quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007-2017 in England.MethodsData from 51 867 past-year smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study (a monthly cross-sectional survey of individuals aged 16+) were aggregated over an 11-year period. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modeling. The input series were: (1) prevalence of smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy; (2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco use; (3) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (4) mass media expenditure; (5) average expenditure on smoking; (6) characteristics in the form of (a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) proportion from lower social grades, and (d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and (7) implementation of tobacco control policies.ResultsThere was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted = 0.224%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.061 to 0.388). Quit attempts were positively associated with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted = 0.165%;95% CI 0.048 to 0.282) and negatively associated with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted = -1.351%; 95% CI -2.168 to -0.534). All other associations were nonsignificant.ConclusionIncreases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact.ImplicationsThis study provides insight into how monthly changes in a wide range of population-level factors are associated with changes in quit attempts over an extended time period in a country with a strong tobacco control climate. The findings suggest a need for intervention or policy to stimulate quit attempts in older smokers. Otherwise, increases in the mean age of a smokers appears likely to undermine wider efforts to promote quit attempts in a population.

Project description:IntroductionMost people who smoke cigarettes are not willing (ie, not ready) to make a quit attempt (QA) at any given time. Unfortunately, interventions intended to increase QAs and the success of QAs are only modestly effective. Identifying processes leading to QAs and quitting success could guide intervention development.Aims and methodsThis is a secondary analysis of a randomized factorial trial of 6 weeks of motivation-phase interventions among primary care patients (N = 517) who were initially unwilling to quit but were willing to reduce their smoking. Using logistic regression, we controlled for treatment condition and tested whether baseline or change in smoking-related constructs after 6 weeks of treatment predicted (1) making an at least 24 h QA between weeks 6 and 26 and (2) quitting success at week 26 (7-day point-prevalence abstinence among those who made a QA). Predictors included cigarettes/day, time to first cigarette, motivation to quit, quitting self-efficacy, anticipated urges to smoke if quit, positive affect, negative affect, and time spent around others who smoke.ResultsIn multivariable models that included all smoking-related constructs, changes in the following variables predicted initiating a QA above and beyond other variables: greater baseline time to first cigarette (odds ratio [OR] = 1.60), increases in time to first cigarette (OR = 1.27), and increases in quitting self-efficacy (OR = 1.14). Increased motivation to quit predicted conversion of a QA into quitting success at 26 weeks (OR = 1.36).ConclusionPredictors of making a QA differed from predictors of quitting success. Predictors of QAs and success could each serve as important treatment targets of motivation-phase interventions.ImplicationsMotivation-phase interventions for people initially unwilling to quit smoking cigarettes may be improved by striving to increase their (1) time to first cigarette and quitting self-efficacy to promote QAs and (2) motivation to quit to promote quit success. Future experimental tests of such interventions are needed to identify causal determinants of QAs and quitting success.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Almost half of smoking quit attempts are "spontaneous" (initiated as soon as the decision to quit has been made) and are associated with increased success rates. This study aimed to assess to what extent other factors may account for this association. METHODS:Data were used from respondents to a survey representative of the adult population in England from 2006 to 2016. We included 2018 respondents who were current smokers at baseline and had attempted to quit between baseline and 6-month follow-up. Logistic regression models assessed the association between quit success and spontaneous quit attempts while adjusting for smoking, sociodemographic, and quit attempt characteristics. RESULTS:Spontaneous quit attempts were associated with greater odds of quit success (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.60) but the association was not significant in the fully adjusted model (ORadj = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.49). In this adjusted model, those who attempted to quit without cutting down first (ORadj = 3.08, 95% CI = 2.46 to 3.88) and were male (ORadj = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.80) had greater odds of success; although a greater number of attempts in the past 6 months, stronger urges to smoke (strong vs. none), higher daily cigarette consumption, and lower social grade (E vs. AB) were associated with lower odds of success (ORadj range = 0.32-0.98, p < .030). Quit attempts made without cutting down first were correlated with spontaneous quit attempts (r = .150, p < .001) and appeared to account for the diminished association between spontaneous quitting and success (ORadj = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.46). CONCLUSIONS:The increased success rate of spontaneous quit attempts appears to be because spontaneous quit attempts are more likely to be made without cutting down first. IMPLICATIONS:The apparent benefit of spontaneous over planned quit attempts may be attributable to the former being more likely to involve quitting without cutting down first (ie, abrupt cessation) than cutting down first (ie, gradual cessation) and so this may be a more useful target for advice to improve the chances of successful quitting.

Project description:IntroductionAlmost half of smoking quit attempts are "spontaneous" (initiated as soon as the decision to quit has been made) and are associated with increased success rates. This study aimed to assess to what extent other factors may account for this association.MethodsData were used from respondents to a survey representative of the adult population in England from 2006 to 2016. We included 2018 respondents who were current smokers at baseline and had attempted to quit between baseline and 6-month follow-up. Logistic regression models assessed the association between quit success and spontaneous quit attempts while adjusting for smoking, sociodemographic, and quit attempt characteristics.ResultsSpontaneous quit attempts were associated with greater odds of quit success (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.60) but the association was not significant in the fully adjusted model (ORadj = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.49). In this adjusted model, those who attempted to quit without cutting down first (ORadj = 3.08, 95% CI = 2.46 to 3.88) and were male (ORadj = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.16 to 1.80) had greater odds of success; although a greater number of attempts in the past 6 months, stronger urges to smoke (strong vs. none), higher daily cigarette consumption, and lower social grade (E vs. AB) were associated with lower odds of success (ORadj range = 0.32-0.98, p < .030). Quit attempts made without cutting down first were correlated with spontaneous quit attempts (r = .150, p < .001) and appeared to account for the diminished association between spontaneous quitting and success (ORadj = 1.18, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.46).ConclusionsThe increased success rate of spontaneous quit attempts appears to be because spontaneous quit attempts are more likely to be made without cutting down first.ImplicationsThe apparent benefit of spontaneous over planned quit attempts may be attributable to the former being more likely to involve quitting without cutting down first (ie, abrupt cessation) than cutting down first (ie, gradual cessation) and so this may be a more useful target for advice to improve the chances of successful quitting.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Reducing the social acceptability of smoking is associated with lowered smoking prevalence. However, denormalization strategies can also contribute to the stigmatization that some smokers may feel about their smoking. Smoking stigma may be more acute if smokers are also members of other stigmatized groups, such as racial/ethnic minorities. This study examined correlates of smoking self- and felt-stigma and discrimination, among current smokers. METHODS:Participants were recruited in the United States via a national commercial consumer panel to complete a cross-sectional, Web-based survey. Participants were 1528 current cigarette smokers aged 14 and older. Measures included the Internalized Stigma of Smoking Inventory (ISSI), Heaviness of Smoking Index, quit intentions, past-year quit attempts, and current use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes). RESULTS:Self-stigma was significantly associated with higher intent to quit in the next 6 months (odds ratio [OR] = 2.47, P < .01) and in the next 30 days (OR = 4.21, P < .01), relative to no intention to quit, as well as having made 1 or 2 quit attempts in the past year (OR = 1.60, P < .01) or 3 or more quit attempts (OR = 1.74, P < .01) and associated with daily e-cigarette use (OR = 1.73, P < .05). Felt-stigma was positively associated with intent to quit in the next 30 days (OR = 1.54, P < .01), having made 3 or more quit attempts in the past year (OR = 1.35, P < .01), and both daily (OR = 2.05, P < .05) and some-day (OR = 1.30, P < .05) e-cigarette use. Discrimination was associated only with increased odds of daily e-cigarette use (OR = 1.83, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS:Smokers who reported greater feelings of stigmatization about their smoking were more likely to report having made recent quit attempts, report a stronger intention quit smoking in the future, and report use of e-cigarettes, suggesting that feelings of self-and felt-stigmatization are related to greater motivation to stop smoking.

Project description:AimTo examine changes in smoking, drinking and quitting/reduction behaviour following the COVID-19 lockdown in England.Design/settingMonthly cross-sectional surveys representative of the adult population in England, aggregated before (April 2019-February 2020) versus after (April 2020) lockdown.ParticipantsA total of 20 558 adults (≥ 16 years).MeasurementsThe independent variable was the timing of the COVID-19 lockdown (before versus after March 2020). Dependent variables were: prevalence of smoking and high-risk drinking, past-year cessation and quit attempts (among past-year smokers), past-year attempts to reduce alcohol consumption (among high-risk drinkers) and use of evidence-based (e.g. prescription medication/face-to-face behavioural support) and remote support [telephone support/websites/applications (apps)] for smoking cessation and alcohol reduction (among smokers/high-risk drinkers who made a quit/reduction attempt). Covariates included age, sex, social grade, region and level of nicotine and alcohol dependence (as relevant).FindingsThe COVID-19 lockdown was not associated with a significant change in smoking prevalence [17.0% (after) versus 15.9% (before), odds ratio (OR) = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.95-1.24], but was associated with increases in quit attempts [39.6 versus 29.1%, adjusted odds ratio (ORadj ) = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.23-1.98], quit success (21.3 versus 13.9%, ORadj = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.22-3.33) and cessation (8.8 versus 4.1%, ORadj = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.69-4.09) among past-year smokers. Among smokers who tried to quit, there was no significant change in use of evidence-based support (50.0 versus 51.5%, ORadj = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.72-1.68) but use of remote support increased (10.9 versus 2.7%, ORadj = 3.59, 95% CI = 1.56-8.23). Lockdown was associated with increases in high-risk drinking (38.3 versus 25.1%, OR = 1.85, CI = 1.67-2.06), but also alcohol reduction attempts by high-risk drinkers (28.5 versus 15.3%, ORadj = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.77-2.64). Among high-risk drinkers who made a reduction attempt, use of evidence-based support decreased (1.2 versus 4.0%, ORadj = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.05-0.97) and there was no significant change in use of remote support (6.9 versus 6.1%, ORadj = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.64-2.75).ConclusionsFollowing the March 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, smokers and high-risk drinkers in England were more likely than before lockdown to report trying to quit smoking or reduce alcohol consumption and rates of smoking cessation and use of remote cessation support were higher. However, high-risk drinking prevalence increased post-lockdown and use of evidence-based support for alcohol reduction by high-risk drinkers decreased with no compensatory increase in use of remote support.

Dataset Information

Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

Publications

Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

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