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Body composition predicts mortality and decompensation in compensated cirrhosis patients: A prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Background & Aims:Body composition, particularly sarcopenia, is associated with mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis undergoing transplant evaluation. Similar data are limited for non-transplant eligible or compensated patients. Methods:A total of 274 patients with cirrhosis were followed prospectively for ?5 years after a CT scan. We utilized Analytic Morphomics® to measure body composition (fat, muscle, and bone) which was rendered into relative values (percentiles) in relation to a reference population. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was used as a reference model for survival prediction. We validated our models in a separate cohort. Results:Our cohort had a mean Child-Pugh score of 7.0 and a mean MELD of 11.3. The median follow-up time was 5.05 years. The proportion of patients alive at 1, 3 and 5 years was 86.5%, 68.0%, and 54.3%; 13 (4.6%) underwent liver transplantation. Child-Pugh B/C (vs. A) cirrhosis was associated with decreased muscle, subcutaneous, and visceral fat area but increased subcutaneous/visceral fat density. Decreased normal density muscle mass was associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.984, p <0.001) as well as visceral and subcutaneous fat density (HR 1.013 and 1.014, respectively, p <0.001). Models utilizing these features outperformed MELD alone for mortality discrimination in both the derivation and validation cohort, particularly for those with compensated cirrhosis (C-statistics of 0.74 vs. 0.58). Using competing risk analysis, we found that subcutaneous fat density was most predictive of decompensation (subdistribution HR 1.018, p = 0.0001). Conclusion:The addition of body composition features to predictive models improves the prospective determination of prognosis in patients with cirrhosis, particularly those with compensated disease. Fat density, a novel feature, is associated with the risk of decompensation. Lay summary:Am I at high risk of getting sicker and dying? This is the key question on the mind of patients with cirrhosis. The problem is that we have very few tools to help guide our patients, particularly if they have early cirrhosis (without symptoms like confusion or fluid in the belly). We found that how much muscle and fat the patient has and what that muscle or fat looks like on a CT scan provide helpful information. This is important because many patients have CT scans and this information is hiding in plain sight.

SUBMITTER: Tapper EB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7005567 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Body composition predicts mortality and decompensation in compensated cirrhosis patients: A prospective cohort study.

Tapper Elliot B EB Zhang Peng P Garg Rohan R Nault Tori T Leary Kate K Krishnamurthy Venkat V Su Grace L GL

JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology 20191205 1

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Body composition, particularly sarcopenia, is associated with mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis undergoing transplant evaluation. Similar data are limited for non-transplant eligible or compensated patients.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 274 patients with cirrhosis were followed prospectively for ≤5 years after a CT scan. We utilized Analytic Morphomics® to measure body composition (fat, muscle, and bone) which was rendered into relative values (percentiles ...[more]

PMID: 32039402

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Project description:ObjectiveAlthough the liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LSVR) based on CT reflects portal hypertension, its prognostic role in cirrhotic patients has not been proven. We evaluated the utility of LSVR, automatically measured from CT images using a deep learning algorithm, as a predictor of hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with hepatitis B viral (HBV)-compensated cirrhosis.Materials and methodsA deep learning algorithm was used to measure the LSVR in a cohort of 1027 consecutive patients (mean age, 50.5 years; 675 male and 352 female) with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who underwent liver CT (2007-2010). Associations of LSVR with hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and competing risk analyses, accounting for either the Child-Pugh score (CPS) or Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and other variables. The risk of the liver-related events was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Aalen-Johansen estimator.ResultsAfter adjustment for either CPS or MELD and other variables, LSVR was identified as a significant independent predictor of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.71 and 0.68 for CPS and MELD models, respectively; p < 0.001) and transplantation-free survival (hazard ratio for LSVR increase by 1, 0.8 and 0.77, respectively; p < 0.001). Patients with an LSVR of < 2.9 (n = 381) had significantly higher 3-year risks of hepatic decompensation (16.7% vs. 2.5%, p < 0.001) and liver-related death or transplantation (10.0% vs. 1.1%, p < 0.001) than those with an LSVR ≥ 2.9 (n = 646). When patients were stratified according to CPS (Child-Pugh A vs. B-C) and MELD (< 10 vs. ≥ 10), an LSVR of < 2.9 was still associated with a higher risk of liver-related events than an LSVR of ≥ 2.9 for all Child-Pugh (p ≤ 0.045) and MELD (p ≤ 0.009) stratifications.ConclusionThe LSVR measured on CT can predict hepatic decompensation and transplantation-free survival in patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis.

Project description:BackgroundThere are limited data on the diagnostic accuracy of gut microbial signatures for predicting hepatic decompensation in patients with cirrhosis.AimsTo determine whether a stool metagenome-derived signature accurately detects hepatic decompensation and mortality risk in cirrhosis secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) METHODS: Shotgun metagenomic sequencing was performed on faecal samples collected at study entry from a prospective cohort of adults with NAFLD-related cirrhosis. A Random Forest machine learning algorithm was utilised to identify a metagenomic signature of decompensated cirrhosis (defined by ascites, hepatic encephalopathy or variceal haemorrhage) and subsequently validated in an external cohort. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine predictors of all-cause mortality.ResultsIn all, 25 adults with NAFLD-related cirrhosis (training cohort) were included. Among the 16 participants with decompensated cirrhosis, 33% had ascites, 56% had hepatic encephalopathy and 22% had experienced a variceal haemorrhage (not mutually exclusive). We identified a stool metagenomic signature comprising 13 discriminatory species that reliably distinguished decompensated NAFLD-related cirrhosis (diagnostic accuracy, 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-0.99). Diagnostic accuracy of the 13-species signature remained high after adjustment for lactulose (area under the curve [AUC] 0.99) and rifaximin use (AUC 0.93). The discriminative ability of 13-species metagenomic signature was robust in an independent test cohort (AUC 0.95, 95% CI 0.81-1.00). The 13-species metagenomic signature (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.10-2.15, p = 0.01) was a stronger predictor of mortality than the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.53, p = 0.03).ConclusionsThis study provides evidence for a gut metagenome-derived signature with high diagnostic accuracy for hepatic decompensation that predicts risk of mortality in NAFLD-related cirrhosis.

Project description:Background & Aims Treatment with non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) reduces the risk of ascites, which is the most common decompensating event in cirrhosis. This study aimed to assess the ability of a serum microRNA (miRNA) signature to predict ascites formation and the hemodynamic response to NSBBs in compensated cirrhosis. Methods Serum levels of miR-452-5p, miR-429, miR-885-5p, miR-181b-5p, and miR-122-5p were analyzed in patients with compensated cirrhosis (N = 105). Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured at baseline, after intravenous propranolol, and 1 year after randomization to NSBBs (n = 52) or placebo (n = 53) (PREDESCI trial). miRNAs were analyzed at baseline and at 1 year. Results Nineteen patients (18%) developed ascites, of whom 17 developed ascites after 1 year. miR-181b-5p levels at 1 year, but not at baseline, were higher in patients that developed ascites. The AUC of miR-181b-5p at 1 year to predict ascites was 0.7 (95% CI 0.59–0.78). miR-429 levels were lower at baseline in acute HVPG responders to NSBBs (AUC 0.65; 95% CI, 0.53–0.76), but levels at baseline and at 1 year were not associated with the HVPG response to NSBBs at 1 year. Conclusions Serum miR-181b-5p is a promising non-invasive biomarker to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of ascites development. Lay summary Ascites marks the transition from the compensated to decompensated stage in cirrhosis and indicates a worsening in prognosis. There are currently no easily accessible tools to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of developing ascites. We evaluated the levels of novel molecules termed microRNAs in the blood of patients with compensated cirrhosis and observed that miR-181b-5p can predict which patients are going to develop ascites. Graphical abstract Highlights • miR-181b-5p appears to be a useful serum biomarker to anticipate ascites onset.• Low serum miR-181b-5p indicates low risk of ascites in compensated cirrhosis.• Low serum miR-429 reflects acute hemodynamic response to non-selective beta-blockers.

Project description:Background & aimsAlthough ascites is the most frequent first decompensating event in cirrhosis, the clinical course after ascites as the single index decompensation is not well defined. The aim of this multicentre study was thus to systematically investigate the incidence and type of further decompensation after ascites as the first decompensating event and to assess risk factors for mortality.MethodsA total of 622 patients with cirrhosis presenting with grade 2/3 ascites as the single index decompensating event at 2 university hospitals (Padova and Vienna) between 2003 and 2021 were included. Events of further decompensation, liver transplantation, and death were recorded.ResultsThe mean age was 57 ± 11 years, and most patients were male (n = 423, 68%) with alcohol-related (n = 366, 59%) and viral (n = 200,32%) liver disease as the main aetiologies. In total, 323 (52%) patients presented with grade 2 and 299 (48%) with grade 3 ascites. The median Child-Pugh score at presentation was 8 (IQR 7-9), and the mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 15 ± 6. During a median follow-up period of 49 months, 350 (56%) patients experienced further decompensation: refractory ascites (n = 130, 21%), hepatic encephalopathy (n = 112, 18%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 32, 5%), hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (n = 29, 5%). Variceal bleeding as an isolated further decompensation event was rare (n = 18, 3%), whereas non-bleeding further decompensation (n = 161, 26%) and ≥2 concomitant further decompensation events (n = 171, 27%) were frequent. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was used in only 81 (13%) patients. In patients presenting with grade 2 ascites, MELD ≥15 indicated a considerable risk for further decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.18; p <0.001; 1-year incidences: <10: 10% vs. 10-14: 13% vs. ≥15: 28%) and of mortality (SHR 1.89; p = 0.004; 1-year incidences: <10: 3% vs. 10-14: 6% vs. ≥15: 14%). Importantly, mortality was similarly high throughout MELD strata in grade 3 ascites (p = n.s. for different MELD strata; 1-year incidences: <10: 14% vs. 10-14: 15% vs. ≥15: 20%).ConclusionsFurther decompensation is frequent in patients with ascites as a single index decompensation event and only rarely owing to bleeding. Although patients with grade 2 ascites and MELD <15 seem to have a favourable prognosis, those with grade 3 ascites are at a high risk of mortality across all MELD strata.Lay summaryDecompensation (the development of symptoms as a result of worsening liver function) marks a turning point in the disease course for patients with cirrhosis. Ascites (i.e. , the accumulation of fluid in the abdomen) is the most common first decompensating event, yet little is known about the clinical course of patients who develop ascites as a single first decompensating event. Herein, we show that the severity of ascites is associated with mortality and that in patients with moderate ascites, the widely used prognostic MELD score can predict patient outcomes.

Project description:Background & aimsPatients with decompensated cirrhosis present frequent hospitalisations with a relevant clinical and socio-economic impact. This study aims to characterise unscheduled readmissions up to 1-year follow-up and identify predictors of 30-day readmission after an index hospitalisation for acute decompensation (AD).MethodsWe performed a secondary analysis of a prospectively collected cohort of patients admitted for AD. Laboratory and clinical data at admission and at discharge were collected. Timing and causes of unscheduled readmissions and mortality were recorded up to 1 year.ResultsA total of 329 patients with AD were included in the analysis. Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 19% of patients at admission or developed in an additional 9% of patients during the index hospitalisation. During the 1-year follow-up, 182 patients (55%) were rehospitalised and 98 (30%) more than once. The most frequent causes of readmission were hepatic encephalopathy (36%), ascites (22%), and infection (21%). Cumulative incidence of readmission was 20% at 30 days, 39% at 90 days, and 63% at 1 year. Fifty-four patients were readmitted for emergent liver-related causes within 30 days. Early readmission was associated with a higher 1-year mortality (47 vs. 32%, p = 0.037). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that haemoglobin (Hb) ≤8.7 g/dl (hazard ratio 2.63 [95% CI 1.38-5.02], p = 0.003) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score (MELD-Na) >16 at discharge (hazard ratio 2.23 [95% CI 1.27-3.93], p = 0.005), were independent predictors of early readmission. In patients with MELD-Na >16 at discharge, the presence of Hb ≤8.7 g/dl doubles the risk of early rehospitalisation (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.02).ConclusionBesides MELD-Na, a low Hb level (Hb ≤8.7 g/dl) at discharge emerged as a new risk factor for early readmission, contributing to identification of patients who require closer surveillance after discharge.Impact and implicationsPatients with decompensated cirrhosis face frequent hospitalisations. In the present study, type and causes of readmissions were analysed during 1-year follow-up in patients discharged after the index hospitalisation for an acute decompensation of the disease. Early (30-day) liver-related readmission was associated with higher 1-year mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score and low haemoglobin at discharge were identified as independent risk factors for early readmissions. Haemoglobin emerged as a new easy-to-use parameter associated with early readmission warranting further investigation.

Dataset Information

Body composition predicts mortality and decompensation in compensated cirrhosis patients: A prospective cohort study.

Publications

Body composition predicts mortality and decompensation in compensated cirrhosis patients: A prospective cohort study.

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