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Machine learning algorithm to predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Previous scoring models such as the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems do not adequately predict mortality of patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) for severe acute kidney injury. Accordingly, the present study applies machine learning algorithms to improve prediction accuracy for this patient subset. METHODS:We randomly divided a total of 1571 adult patients who started CRRT for acute kidney injury into training (70%, n?=?1094) and test (30%, n?=?477) sets. The primary output consisted of the probability of mortality during admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or hospital. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of several machine learning algorithms with that of the APACHE II, SOFA, and the new abbreviated mortality scoring system for acute kidney injury with CRRT (MOSAIC model) results. RESULTS:For the ICU mortality, the random forest model showed the highest AUC (0.784 [0.744-0.825]), and the artificial neural network and extreme gradient boost models demonstrated the next best results (0.776 [0.735-0.818]). The AUC of the random forest model was higher than 0.611 (0.583-0.640), 0.677 (0.651-0.703), and 0.722 (0.677-0.767), as achieved by APACHE II, SOFA, and MOSAIC, respectively. The machine learning models also predicted in-hospital mortality better than APACHE II, SOFA, and MOSAIC. CONCLUSION:Machine learning algorithms increase the accuracy of mortality prediction for patients undergoing CRRT for acute kidney injury compared with previous scoring models.

SUBMITTER: Kang MW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7006166 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine learning algorithm to predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

Kang Min Woo MW Kim Jayoun J Kim Dong Ki DK Oh Kook-Hwan KH Joo Kwon Wook KW Kim Yon Su YS Han Seung Seok SS

Critical care (London, England) 20200206 1

<h4>Background</h4>Previous scoring models such as the Acute Physiologic Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems do not adequately predict mortality of patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) for severe acute kidney injury. Accordingly, the present study applies machine learning algorithms to improve prediction accuracy for this patient subset.<h4>Methods</h4>We randomly divided a total of ...[more]

PMID: 32028984

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Project description:BackgroundTo construct and evaluate a predictive model for in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), based on nine machine learning (ML) algorithm.MethodsThe study retrospectively included patients with AKI who underwent CRRT during their initial hospitalization in the United States using the medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC) database IV (version 2.0), as well as in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Huzhou Central Hospital. Patients from the MIMIC database were used as the training cohort to construct the models (from 2008 to 2019, n = 1068). Patients from Huzhou Central Hospital were utilized as the external validation cohort to evaluate the models (from June 2019 to December 2022, n = 327). In the training cohort, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression with cross-validation was employed to select features for constructing the model and subsequently established nine ML predictive models. The performance of these nine models on the external validation cohort dataset was comprehensively evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the optimal model was selected. A static nomogram and a web-based dynamic nomogram were presented, with a comprehensive evaluation from the perspectives of discrimination (AUROC), calibration (calibration curve) and clinical practicability (DCA curves).ResultsFinally, 1395 eligible patients were enrolled, including 1068 patients in the training cohort and 327 patients in the external validation cohort. In the training cohort, LASSO regression with cross-validation was employed to select features and nine models were individually constructed. Compared to the other eight models, the Lasso regularized logistic regression (Lasso-LR) model exhibited the highest AUROC (0.756) and the optimal calibration curve. The DCA curve suggested a certain clinical utility in predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with AKI undergoing CRRT. Consequently, the Lasso-LR model was the optimal model and it was visualized as a common nomogram (static nomogram) and a web-based dynamic nomogram (https://chsyh2006.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/). Discrimination, calibration and DCA curves were employed to assess the performance of the nomogram. The AUROC for the training and external validation cohorts in the nomogram model was 0.771 (95%CI: 0.743, 0.799) and 0.756 (95%CI: 0.702, 0.809), respectively. The calibration slope and Brier score for the training cohort were 1.000 and 0.195, while for the external validation cohort, they were 0.849 and 0.197, respectively. The DCA indicated that the model had a certain clinical application value.ConclusionsOur study selected the optimal model and visualized it as a static and dynamic nomogram integrating clinical predictors, so that clinicians can personalized predict the in-hospital outcome of critically ill patients with AKI undergoing CRRT upon ICU admission.

Project description:BackgroundThe survival of critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is highly dependent on their nutritional status.ObjectivesThe prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is an indicator used to assess nutritional status and is calculated as: PNI = (serum albumin in g/dL) × 10 + (total lymphocyte count in/mm3) × 0.005. In this retrospective study, we investigated the correlation between this index and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with AKI receiving CRRT.MethodsWe analyzed data from 2076 critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit at Changhua Christian Hospital, a tertiary hospital in central Taiwan, between January 1, 2010, and April 30, 2021. All these patients met the inclusion criteria of the study. The relationship between PNI and renal replacement therapy-free survival (RRTFS) and mortality was examined using logistic regression models, Cox proportional hazard models, and propensity score matching. High utilization rate of parenteral nutrition (PN) was observed in our study. Subgroup analysis was performed to explore the interaction effect between PNI and PN on mortality.ResultsPatients with higher PNI levels exhibited a greater likelihood of achieving RRTFS, with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.43 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.98-2.97, p-value < 0.001). Additionally, these patients demonstrated higher survival rates, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72-0.98) for 28-day mortality and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69-0.92) for 90-day mortality (all p-values < 0.05), compared to those in the low PNI group. While a high utilization rate of parenteral nutrition (PN) was observed, with 78.86% of CRRT patients receiving PN, subgroup analysis showed that high PNI had an independent protective effect on mortality outcomes in AKI patients receiving CRRT, regardless of their PN status.ConclusionsPNI can serve as an easy, simple, and efficient measure of lymphocytes and albumin levels to predict RRTFS and mortality in AKI patients with require CRRT.

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Machine learning algorithm to predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

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Machine learning algorithm to predict mortality in patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

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