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Bayesian approach for analysis of time-to-event data in plant biology.

ABSTRACT: Background:Plants, like all living organisms, metamorphose their bodies during their lifetime. All the developmental and growth events in a plant's life are connected to specific points in time, be it seed germination, seedling emergence, the appearance of the first leaf, heading, flowering, fruit ripening, wilting, or death. The onset of automated phenotyping methods has brought an explosion of such time-to-event data. Unfortunately, it has not been matched by an explosion of adequate data analysis methods. Results and discussion:In this paper, we introduce the Bayesian approach towards time-to-event data in plant biology. As a model example, we use seedling emergence data of maize under control and stress conditions but the Bayesian approach is suitable for any time-to-event data (see the examples above). In the proposed framework, we are able to answer key questions regarding plant emergence such as these: (1) Do seedlings treated with compound A emerge earlier than the control seedlings? (2) What is the probability of compound A increasing seedling emergence by at least 5 percent? Conclusion:Proper data analysis is a fundamental task of general interest in life sciences. Here, we present a novel method for the analysis of time-to-event data which is applicable to many plant developmental parameters measured in field or in laboratory conditions. In contrast to recent and classical approaches, our Bayesian computational method properly handles uncertainty in time-to-event data and it is capable to reliably answer questions that are difficult to address by classical methods.

SUBMITTER: Humplik JF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7011251 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian approach for analysis of time-to-event data in plant biology.

Humplík Jan F JF Dostál Jakub J Ugena Lydia L Spíchal Lukáš L De Diego Nuria N Vencálek Ondřej O Fürst Tomáš T

Plant methods 20200211

<h4>Background</h4>Plants, like all living organisms, metamorphose their bodies during their lifetime. All the developmental and growth events in a plant's life are connected to specific points in time, be it seed germination, seedling emergence, the appearance of the first leaf, heading, flowering, fruit ripening, wilting, or death. The onset of automated phenotyping methods has brought an explosion of such time-to-event data. Unfortunately, it has not been matched by an explosion of adequate d ...[more]

PMID: 32063998

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Project description:Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (? 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

Dataset Information

Bayesian approach for analysis of time-to-event data in plant biology.

Publications

Bayesian approach for analysis of time-to-event data in plant biology.

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