Dataset Information

The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Baltimore and San Francisco represent high burden areas for gonorrhea in the United States. We explored different gonorrhea screening strategies and their comparative impact in the 2 cities. METHODS:We used a compartmental transmission model of gonorrhea stratified by sex, sexual orientation, age, and race/ethnicity, calibrated to city-level surveillance data for 2010 to 2017. We analyzed the benefits of 5-year interventions which improved retention in care cascade or increased screening from current levels. We also examined a 1-year outreach screening intervention of high-activity populations. RESULTS:In Baltimore, annual screening of population aged 15 to 24 years was the most efficient of the 5-year interventions with 17.9 additional screening tests (95% credible interval [CrI], 11.8-31.4) needed per infection averted while twice annual screening of the same population averted the most infections (5.4%; 95% CrI, 3.1-8.2%) overall with 25.3 (95% CrI, 19.4-33.4) tests per infection averted. In San Francisco, quarter-annual screening of all men who have sex with men was the most efficient with 16.2 additional (95% CrI, 12.5-44.5) tests needed per infection averted, and it also averted the most infections (10.8%; 95% CrI, 1.2-17.8%). Interventions that reduce loss to follow-up after diagnosis improved outcomes. Depending on the ability of a short-term outreach screening to screen populations at higher acquisition risk, such interventions can offer efficient ways to expand screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS:Data on gonorrhea prevalence distribution and time trends locally would improve the analyses. More focused intervention strategies could increase the impact and efficiency of screening interventions.

SUBMITTER: Ronn MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7012354 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

Rönn Minttu M MM Testa Christian C Tuite Ashleigh R AR Chesson Harrell W HW Gift Thomas L TL Schumacher Christina C Williford Sarah L SL Zhu Lin L Bellerose Meghan M Earnest Rebecca R Malyuta Yelena Y Hsu Katherine K KK Salomon Joshua A JA Menzies Nicolas A NA

Sexually transmitted diseases 20200301 3

<h4>Background</h4>Baltimore and San Francisco represent high burden areas for gonorrhea in the United States. We explored different gonorrhea screening strategies and their comparative impact in the 2 cities.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a compartmental transmission model of gonorrhea stratified by sex, sexual orientation, age, and race/ethnicity, calibrated to city-level surveillance data for 2010 to 2017. We analyzed the benefits of 5-year interventions which improved retention in care cascade or i ...[more]

PMID: 31842089

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Project description:The Trans Bay Cable (TBC) is a ±200-kilovolt (kV), 400 MW 85-km long High Voltage Direct Current (DC) buried transmission line linking Pittsburg, CA with San Francisco, CA (SF) beneath the San Francisco Estuary. The TBC runs parallel to the migratory route of various marine species, including green sturgeon, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout. In July and August 2014, an extensive series of magnetic field measurements were taken using a pair of submerged Geometrics magnetometers towed behind a survey vessel in four locations in the San Francisco estuary along profiles that cross the cable's path; these included the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge (BB), the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge (RSR), the Benicia-Martinez Bridge (Ben) and an area in San Pablo Bay (SP) in which a bridge is not present. In this paper, we apply basic formulas that ideally describe the magnetic field from a DC cable summed vectorially with the background geomagnetic field (in the absence of other sources that would perturb the ambient field) to derive characteristics of the cable that are otherwise not immediately observable. Magnetic field profiles from measurements taken along 170 survey lines were inspected visually for evidence of a distinct pattern representing the presence of the cable. Many profiles were dominated by field distortions unrelated to the cable caused by bridge structures or other submerged objects, and the cable's contribution to the field was not detectable. BB, with 40 of the survey lines, did not yield usable data for these reasons. The unrelated anomalies could be up to 100 times greater than those from the cable. In total, discernible magnetic field profiles measured from 76 survey lines were regressed against the equations, representing eight days of measurement. The modeled field anomalies due to the cable (the difference between the maximum and minimum field along the survey line at the cable crossing) were virtually identical to the measured values. The modeling yielded a pooled cable depth below the bay floor of 2.06 m (±1.46 std dev), and estimated the angle to the horizontal of the imaginary line connecting the cross-sectional center of the cable's two conductors (0.1143 m apart) as 178.9° ±61.9° (std dev) for Ben, 78.6°±37.0° (std dev) for RSR, and 139.9°±27.4° (std dev) for SP. The mean of the eight daily average currents derived from the regressions was 986 ±185 amperes (A) (std dev), as compared to 722 ±95 A (std dev) provided by Trans Bay Cable LLC. Overall, the regressions based on fundamental principles (Biot Savart law) and the vectorial summation of cable and geomagnetic fields provide estimates of cable characteristics consistent with plausible expectations.

Dataset Information

The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

Publications

The Potential Population-Level Impact of Different Gonorrhea Screening Strategies in Baltimore and San Francisco: An Exploratory Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

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