Dataset Information

Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.

ABSTRACT: Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960-2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade-1) and intensity (~0.28?°C decade-1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Wang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7012878 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.

Wang Jun J Chen Yang Y Tett Simon F B SFB Yan Zhongwei Z Zhai Panmao P Feng Jinming J Xia Jiangjiang J

Nature communications 20200211 1

Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960-2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade<sup>-1</sup>) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade<sup>-1</sup>) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from sum ...[more]

PMID: 32047147

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Project description:The surface mixed layer of the world ocean regulates global climate by controlling heat and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the oceanic interior1-3. The mixed layer also shapes marine ecosystems by hosting most of the ocean's primary production4 and providing the conduit for oxygenation of deep oceanic layers. Despite these important climatic and life-supporting roles, possible changes in the mixed layer during an era of global climate change remain uncertain. Here we use oceanographic observations to show that from 1970 to 2018 the density contrast across the base of the mixed layer increased and that the mixed layer itself became deeper. Using a physically based definition of upper-ocean stability that follows different dynamical regimes across the global ocean, we find that the summertime density contrast increased by 8.9 ± 2.7 per cent per decade (10-6-10-5 per second squared per decade, depending on region), more than six times greater than previous estimates. Whereas prior work has suggested that a thinner mixed layer should accompany a more stratified upper ocean5-7, we find instead that the summertime mixed layer deepened by 2.9 ± 0.5 per cent per decade, or several metres per decade (typically 5-10 metres per decade, depending on region). A detailed mechanistic interpretation is challenging, but the concurrent stratification and deepening of the mixed layer are related to an increase in stability associated with surface warming and high-latitude surface freshening8,9, accompanied by a wind-driven intensification of upper-ocean turbulence10,11. Our findings are based on a complex dataset with incomplete coverage of a vast area. Although our results are robust within a wide range of sensitivity analyses, important uncertainties remain, such as those related to sparse coverage in the early years of the 1970-2018 period. Nonetheless, our work calls for reconsideration of the drivers of ongoing shifts in marine primary production, and reveals stark changes in the world's upper ocean over the past five decades.

Dataset Information

Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.

Publications

Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.

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