Dataset Information

Impact of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Incidence of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Wuhan, China.

ABSTRACT: Background: Few studies have previously explored the relationship between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors with the effect modification of air pollution, and these studies had inconsistent findings. We therefore applied a time-series analysis assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on the incidence of HFMD in Wuhan, China to deepen our understanding of the relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of HFMD. Methods: Daily HFMD cases were retrieved from Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 February 2013 to 31 January 2017. Daily meteorological data including 24 h average temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, and atmospheric pressure were obtained from Hubei Meteorological Bureau. Data on Air pollution was collected from 10 national air-monitoring stations in Wuhan city. We adopted a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with Poisson regression and time-series analysis to estimate the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the incidence HFMD. Results: We found that the association between temperature and HFMD incidence was non-linear, exhibiting an approximate "M" shape with two peaks occurring at 2.3 °C (RR = 1.760, 95% CI: 1.218-2.542) and 27.9 °C (RR = 1.945, 95% CI: 1.570-2.408), respectively. We observed an inverted "V" shape between relative humidity and HFMD. The risk of HFMD reached a maximum value at a relative humidity of 89.2% (RR = 1.553, 95% CI: 1.322-1.824). The largest delayed cumulative effects occurred at lag 6 for temperature and lag 13 for relative humidity. Conclusions: The non-linear relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD on different lag days could be used in the early targeted warning system of infectious diseases, reducing the possible outbreaks and burdens of HFMD among sensitive populations.

SUBMITTER: Hao J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7013846 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Incidence of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Wuhan, China.

Hao Jiayuan J Yang Zhiyi Z Yang Wenwen W Huang Shuqiong S Tian Liqiao L Zhu Zhongmin Z Lu Yuanan Y Xiang Hao H Liu Suyang S

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200108 2

<i>Background</i>: Few studies have previously explored the relationship between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors with the effect modification of air pollution, and these studies had inconsistent findings. We therefore applied a time-series analysis assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on the incidence of HFMD in Wuhan, China to deepen our understanding of the relationship between meteorological factors and the risk of HFMD. <i>Methods:</i> Daily HFMD ...[more]

PMID: 31936369

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Project description:There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): ?13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: ?33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.

Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea remains a common infectious disease caused by various risk factors in developing countries. This study investigated the incidence rate and temporal associations between diarrhea and meteorological determinants in five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia.MethodMonthly diarrhea records from local governmental health facilities in Surabaya and monthly means of weather variables, including average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency were collected from January 2018 to September 2020. The generalized additive model was employed to quantify the time lag association between diarrhea risk and extremely low (5th percentile) and high (95th percentile) monthly weather variations in the north, central, west, south, and east regions of Surabaya (lag of 0-2 months).ResultThe average incidence rate for diarrhea was 11.4 per 100,000 during the study period, with a higher incidence during rainy season (November to March) and in East Surabaya. This study showed that the weather condition with the lowest diarrhea risks varied with the region. The diarrhea risks were associated with extremely low and high temperatures, with the highest RR of 5.39 (95% CI 4.61, 6.17) in the east region, with 1 month of lag time following the extreme temperatures. Extremely low relative humidity increased the diarrhea risks in some regions of Surabaya, with the highest risk in the west region at lag 0 (RR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.79, 2.47)). Extremely high precipitation significantly affects the risk of diarrhea in the central region, at 0 months of lag time, with an RR of 3.05 (95% CI 2.09, 4.01).ConclusionThis study identified a high incidence of diarrhea in the rainy season and in the deficient developed regions of Surabaya, providing evidence that weather magnifies the adverse effects of inadequate environmental sanitation. This study suggests the local environmental and health sectors codevelop a weather-based early warning system and improve local sanitation practices as prevention measures in response to increasing risks of infectious diseases.

Dataset Information

Impact of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Incidence of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Wuhan, China.

Publications

Impact of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Incidence of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Wuhan, China.

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