Dataset Information

Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.

ABSTRACT: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world, and accurate forecasts of dengue in a timely manner might help local government implement effective control measures. To obtain the accurate forecasting of DF cases, it is crucial to model the long-term dependency in time series data, which is difficult for a typical machine learning method. This study aimed to develop a timely accurate forecasting model of dengue based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks while only considering monthly dengue cases and climate factors. The performance of LSTM models was compared with the other previously published models when predicting DF cases one month into the future. Our results showed that the LSTM model reduced the average the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the predictions by 12.99% to 24.91% and reduced the average RMSE of the predictions in the outbreak period by 15.09% to 26.82% as compared with other candidate models. The LSTM model achieved superior performance in predicting dengue cases as compared with other previously published forecasting models. Moreover, transfer learning (TL) can improve the generalization ability of the model in areas with fewer dengue incidences. The findings provide a more precise forecasting dengue model and could be used for other dengue-like infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Xu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7014037 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.

Xu Jiucheng J Xu Keqiang K Li Zhichao Z Meng Fengxia F Tu Taotian T Xu Lei L Liu Qiyong Q

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200110 2

Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world, and accurate forecasts of dengue in a timely manner might help local government implement effective control measures. To obtain the accurate forecasting of DF cases, it is crucial to model the long-term dependency in time series data, which is difficult for a typical machine learning method. This study aimed to develop a timely accurate forecasting model of dengue based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural ...[more]

PMID: 31936708

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Project description:Fusarium head blight (FHB) incited by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe is a devastating disease of barley and other cereal crops worldwide. Fusarium head blight is associated with trichothecene mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON), where contaminated grains are unfit for malting or animal feed industries. While genetically resistant cultivars offer the best economic and environmentally responsible means to mitigate disease, parent lines with adequate resistance are limited in barley. Resistancebreeding based upon quantitative genetic gains has been slow to date, due to intensive labour requirements of disease nurseries. The development of high throughput genome-wide molecular markers, allow application in genomic prediction models. A diverse genomic panel consisting of 400 two-row spring barley lines was assembled to focus on Canadian barley breeding programs. The panel was evaluated for FHB and DON content in three environments and over two years. Moreover, it was genotyped using an Illumina Infinium HTS iSelect custom beadchip array of single nucleotide polymorphic molecular markers (50K SNP), where over 23K molecular markers were polymorphic. Genomic prediction has been successfully demonstrated for reducing FHB and DON content in cereals using various statistically-based models of different underlying assumptions. Herein, we have studied an alternative method basedon machine learning and compare it with a statistical approach. Two encoding techniques were utilized (categorical or Hardy-Weinberg frequencies), followed by selecting essential genomic markers for phenotype prediction. Subsequently, we applied a transformer-based deep learning algorithm to predict FHB and DON. Apart from the transformer method, we also implemented a Residual Fully Connected Neural Network (RFCNN). Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to compare true vs. predicted outputs. Under most model scenarios, the use of all markers vs. selected markers marginally improved prediction performance except for RFCNN method for FHB (27.6%). Hardy-Weinberg encoding generally improved correlation for FHB (6.9%) and DON (9.6%) for transformer. This study suggests the potential of the transformer based method for genomic prediction of complex traits such as FHB or DON, having performed better or equally compared with existing machine learning and statistical method. To genomic prediction in barley for Fusarium head blight and deoxynivalenol content using a custom Illumina Infinium array (BarleySNP50-JHI) (www.illumina.com). Sample types included leaves from 400 barley genotypes mostly of Canadian origin. This series includes 400 genotypes assayed on an Illumina infinium HTS platform 50K BeadChip.

Project description:BackgroundIn China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue.Methodology/principal findingsWeekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011-2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China.Conclusion and significanceThe proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.

Dataset Information

Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.

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Forecast of Dengue Cases in 20 Chinese Cities Based on the Deep Learning Method.

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