Dataset Information

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.

Methods

In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.

Findings

Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.

Interpretation

We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

Funding

World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

SUBMITTER: WHO CVD Risk Chart Working Group

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7025029 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundWorld Health Organization (WHO) released region-specific cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction charts recently, but the extent to which the charts can apply to Chinese population is unknown. We aimed to validate the WHO CVD risk charts for East Asia, and evaluate their practicability combining with China-PAR (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China) equations among Chinese adults.MethodsThe China-PAR cohort with 93,234 participants aged 40-80 years was followed up during 1992-2015, including 29,337 participants from three sub-cohorts with follow-up period of over 10 years. We validated the WHO CVD risk charts using the China-PAR cohort by assessment of the predicted number of events, C index, calibration χ², and calibration plots, further elaborated the concordance between the China-PAR equations and the WHO risk charts.FindingsDuring an average follow-up of 13•64 years, 1849 incident CVD cases were identified from 29,337 participants. Both the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based charts overestimated CVD events by 59% and 58% in men, and by 72% and 85% in women, respectively. However, 92% of participants identified as high risk by the China-PAR equations could be successfully detected by the laboratory-based charts at the cut-off point of 10%. We also observed that the non-laboratory-based charts demonstrated the poor performance for diabetic population, with high proportion of high-risk individuals (17% for men, 31% for women) would be missed.InterpretationAlthough the WHO CVD risk charts for East Asia apparently overestimated CVD risk among Chinese population, they could be pragmatic pre-selection tools, as potential supplement to the China-PAR equations. The widespread use of the WHO risk charts along with the China-PAR equations might facilitate the implementation of the risk-based CVD prevention in China.FundingFull funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Project description:BackgroundReductions in World Health Organization (WHO) risk drinking levels have recently been shown to lower the risk of multiple adverse health outcomes, but prior work has not examined reductions in WHO risk drinking levels in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of death for men and women in the United States and of global mortality. This study examined associations between reductions in WHO risk drinking levels and subsequent risk for CVD.MethodsIn a US national survey, 1,058 very-high-risk and high-risk drinkers participated in Wave 1 interviews (2001 to 2002) and Wave 2 follow-ups (2004 to 2005). Self-reported CVD history that was communicated to the participant by a doctor or other healthcare professionals included arteriosclerosis, hypertension, angina, tachycardia, or myocardial infarction. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) evaluating relationships between ≥2-level reductions in WHO risk drinking levels from Wave 1 to Wave 2 and the risk of Wave 2 CVD, controlling for baseline characteristics.ResultsReductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD in individuals who at Wave 1 were very-high-risk (aOR = 0.58 [0.41 to 0.80]) or high-risk drinkers (aOR = 0.81 [0.70 to 0.94]). Interaction terms showed that this relationship varied by age. Among individuals >40 years old at Wave 1, reductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD among very-high-risk drinkers (aOR = 0.42 [0.28 to 0.63]) but not high-risk drinkers (p = 0.50). Among individuals ≤40 years old at Wave 1, reductions of ≥2 WHO risk drinking levels were associated with significantly lower odds of CVD among high-risk drinkers (aOR = 0.50 [0.37 to 0.69]) but not very-high-risk drinkers (p = 0.27).ConclusionsThese results show that reductions in WHO risk drinking levels are associated with reduced CVD risk among very-high-risk and high-risk drinkers in the US general population, and provide further evidence that reducing high levels of drinking provides important benefit across multiple clinical domains.

Project description:Viruses and mobile genetic elements are molecular parasites or symbionts that coevolve with nearly all forms of cellular life. The route of virus replication and protein expression is determined by the viral genome type. Comparison of these routes led to the classification of viruses into seven "Baltimore classes" (BCs) that define the major features of virus reproduction. However, recent phylogenomic studies identified multiple evolutionary connections among viruses within each of the BCs as well as between different classes. Due to the modular organization of virus genomes, these relationships defy simple representation as lines of descent but rather form complex networks. Phylogenetic analyses of virus hallmark genes combined with analyses of gene-sharing networks show that replication modules of five BCs (three classes of RNA viruses and two classes of reverse-transcribing viruses) evolved from a common ancestor that encoded an RNA-directed RNA polymerase or a reverse transcriptase. Bona fide viruses evolved from this ancestor on multiple, independent occasions via the recruitment of distinct cellular proteins as capsid subunits and other structural components of virions. The single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses are a polyphyletic class, with different groups evolving by recombination between rolling-circle-replicating plasmids, which contributed the replication protein, and positive-sense RNA viruses, which contributed the capsid protein. The double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) viruses are distributed among several large monophyletic groups and arose via the combination of distinct structural modules with equally diverse replication modules. Phylogenomic analyses reveal the finer structure of evolutionary connections among RNA viruses and reverse-transcribing viruses, ssDNA viruses, and large subsets of dsDNA viruses. Taken together, these analyses allow us to outline the global organization of the virus world. Here, we describe the key aspects of this organization and propose a comprehensive hierarchical taxonomy of viruses.