Dataset Information

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

ABSTRACT: We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model simulations integrated with Modern Era Retrospective for Research and Analysis 2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past four decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O3 has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1 to 20 September. The observed vortex-averaged column O3 during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 September have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O3 loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90°S 220 Dobson unit O3 mass deficit metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250-Dobson unit O3 mass deficit metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O3 increase is due to higher O3 levels in June prior to winter depletion.

SUBMITTER: Strahan SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7027592 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

Strahan Susan E SE Douglass Anne R AR Damon Megan R MR

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR 20190801 15

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model simulations integrated with Modern Era Retrospective for Research and Analysis 2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past ...[more]

PMID: 32071827

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Project description:Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide.

Dataset Information

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

Publications

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

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