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Predictive model of the first failure pattern in patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy for inoperable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC).

ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:To analyze patterns of failure in patients with LA-NSCLC who received definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and to build a nomogram for predicting the failure patterns in this population of patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Clinicopathological data of patients with LA-NSCLC who received definitive chemoradiotherapy and follow-up between 2013 and 2016 in our hospital were collected. The endpoint was the first failure after definitive chemoradiotherapy. With using elastic net regression and 5-fold nested cross-validation, the optimal model with better generalization ability was selected. Based on the selected model and corresponding features, a nomogram prediction model was built. This model was also validated by ROC curves, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS:With a median follow-up of 28?months, 100 patients experienced failure. There were 46 and 54 patients who experience local failure and distant failure, respectively. Predictive model including 9 factors (smoking, pathology, location, EGFR mutation, age, tumor diameter, clinical N stage, consolidation chemotherapy and radiation dose) was finally built with the best performance. The average area under the ROC curve (AUC) with 5-fold nested cross-validation was 0.719, which was better than any factors alone. The calibration curve revealed a satisfactory consistency between the predicted distant failure rates and the actual observations. DCA showed most of the threshold probabilities in this model were with good net benefits. CONCLUSION:Clinicopathological factors could collaboratively predict failure patterns in patients with LA-NSCLC who are receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy. A nomogram was built and validated based on these factors, showing a potential predictive value in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Zhu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7029470 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive model of the first failure pattern in patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy for inoperable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC).

Zhu Xueru X Hou Runping R Li Xiaoyang X Jiang Chang C Xia Wuyan W Fu Xiaolong X

Radiation oncology (London, England) 20200218 1

<h4>Purpose</h4>To analyze patterns of failure in patients with LA-NSCLC who received definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and to build a nomogram for predicting the failure patterns in this population of patients.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Clinicopathological data of patients with LA-NSCLC who received definitive chemoradiotherapy and follow-up between 2013 and 2016 in our hospital were collected. The endpoint was the first failure after definitive chemoradiotherapy. With using elastic net reg ...[more]

PMID: 32070383

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Loco-regional and distant failure are common in inoperable stage III non small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after chemoradiotherapy (CRT). However, there is limited real-world data on failure pattern, patient prognosis and salvage options. METHODS:We analysed 99 consecutive patients with inoperable stage III NSCLC treated with CRT between 2011 and 2016. Follow up CT scans from date of the first-site failure were matched with the delivered radiation treatment plans. Intra-thoracic loco-regional relapse was defined as in-field (IFR) vs. out-of-field recurrence (OFR) [in- vs. outside 50Gy isodose line in the involved lung], respectively. Extracranial distant (DMs) and brain metastases (BMs) as first site of recurrence were also evaluated. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, impact of salvage surgery (sS), radiotherapy (sRT), chemotherapy (sCT) and immunotherapy (sIO) on patient survival was assessed. RESULTS:Median follow-up was 60.0?months. Median PFS from the end of CRT for the entire cohort was 7.5 (95% CI: 6.0-9.0?months) months. Twenty-six (26%) and 25 (25%) patients developed IFR and OFR. Median time to diagnosis of IFR and OFR was 7.2 and 6.2?months. In the entire cohort, onset of IFR and OFR did not influence patient outcome. However, in 73 (74%) patients who survived longer than 12?months after initial diagnosis, IFR was a significant negative prognostic factor with a median survival of 19.3 vs 40.0?months (p <?0.001). No patients with IFR underwent sS and/or sRT. 18 (70%) and 5 (19%) patients with IFR underwent sCT and sIO. Three (12%) patients with OFR underwent sS and are still alive with 3-year survival rate of 100%. 5 (20%) patients with OFR underwent sRT with a median survival of 71.2 vs 19.1?months (p =?0.014). Four (16%) patients with OFR received sIO with a numerical survival benefit (64.6 vs. 26.4?months, p =?0.222). DMs and BMs were detected in 27 (27%) and 16 (16%) patients after median time of 5.8 and 5.13?months. Both had no impact on patient outcome in the entire cohort. However, patients with more than three BMs showed significantly poor OS (9.3 vs 26.0?months; p =?0.012). CONCLUSIONS:After completion of CRT, IFR was a negative prognostic factor in those patients, who survived longer than 12?months after initial diagnosis. Patients with OFR benefit significantly from salvage local treatment. Patients with more than three BMs as first site of failure had a significantly inferior outcome.

Project description:BackgroundThe nutritional status of cancer patients is a crucial factor in determining their prognosis. The objective of this study was to investigate and compare the prognostic value of pretreatment nutrition-related indicators in elderly esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Risk stratification was performed according to independent risk factors and a new nutritional prognostic index was constructed.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 460 older locally advanced ESCC patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) or radiotherapy (dRT). This study included five pre- therapeutic nutrition-related indicators. The optimal cut-off values for these indices were calculated from the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). Univariate and multivariate COX analyses were employed to determine the association between each indicator and clinical outcomes. The predictive ability of each independently nutrition-related prognostic indicator was assessed using the time-dependent ROC (time-ROC) and C-index.ResultsMultivariate analyses indicated that the geriatric nutrition risk index (GNRI), body mass index (BMI), the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, and platelet-albumin ratio (PAR) could independently predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in elderly patients with ESCC (all p < 0.05), except for prognostic nutritional index (PNI). Based on four independently nutrition-related prognostic indicators, we developed pre-therapeutic nutritional prognostic score (PTNPS) and new nutritional prognostic index (NNPI). No-risk (PTNPS = 0-1 point), moderate-risk (PTNPS = 2 points), and high-risk (PTNPS = 3-4 points) groups had 5-year OS rates of 42.3%, 22.9%, and 8.8%, respectively (p < 0.001), and 5-year PFS rates of 44.4%, 26.5%, and 11.3%, respectively (p < 0.001). The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the mortality of elderly ESCC patients in the high-risk group was higher than that in the low-risk group according to the NNPI. Analysis of time-AUC and C-index revealed that the NNPI (C-index: 0.663) had the greatest predictive power on the prognosis in older ESCC patients.ConclusionsIn elderly ESCC patients, the GNRI, BMI, CONUT score, and PAR can be used as objective assessment measures for the risk of nutrition-related death. Compared to the other four indexes, the NNPI has the greatest prognostic value for prognosis, and elderly patients with a higher nutritional risk have a poor prognosis, which is helpful in guiding early clinical nutrition intervention.

Dataset Information

Predictive model of the first failure pattern in patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy for inoperable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC).

Publications

Predictive model of the first failure pattern in patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy for inoperable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC).

Similar Datasets

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