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Performance of a mixture model by the degree of a missing categorical covariate when estimating clearance in NONMEM.

ABSTRACT: The accuracy and predictability of mixture models in NONMEM® may change depending on the relative size of inter-individual differences and the size of the differences in the parameters between subpopulations. This study explored the accuracy of mixture models when dealing with missing a categorical covariate under various situations that may occur in reality. We generated simulation data under various scenarios where genotypes representing extensive metabolizers (EM) and poor metabolizers (PM) of drug-metabolizing enzymes affect the clearance of a drug by different degrees, and the inter-individual variations in clearance are different for each scenario. From each simulated datum, a specific proportion of the covariate (genotype information) was randomly removed. Based on these simulation data, the proportion of each individual subpopulation and the clearance were estimated using a mixture model. Overall, the clearance estimate was more accurate when the difference in clearance between subpopulations was large, and the inter-individual variations were small. In some scenarios that showed higher ETA or epsilon shrinkage, the clearance estimates were significantly biased. The mixture model made better predictions for individuals in the EM subpopulation than for individuals in the PM subpopulation. However, the estimated values were not significantly affected by the tested ratio, if the sample size was secured to some extent. The current simulation study suggests that when the coefficient of variation of inter-individual variations of clearance exceeds 40%, the mixture model should be used carefully, and it should be taken into account that shrinkage can bias the results.

SUBMITTER: Yoon S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7032962 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIncomplete categorical variables with more than two categories are common in public health data. However, most of the existing missing-data methods do not use the information from nonresponse (missingness) probabilities.MethodsWe propose a nearest-neighbour multiple imputation approach to impute a missing at random categorical outcome and to estimate the proportion of each category. The donor set for imputation is formed by measuring distances between each missing value with other non-missing values. The distance function is calculated based on a predictive score, which is derived from two working models: one fits a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing categorical outcome (the outcome model) and the other fits a logistic regression for predicting missingness probabilities (the missingness model). A weighting scheme is used to accommodate contributions from two working models when generating the predictive score. A missing value is imputed by randomly selecting one of the non-missing values with the smallest distances. We conduct a simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with several alternative methods. A real-data application is also presented.ResultsThe simulation study suggests that the proposed method performs well when missingness probabilities are not extreme under some misspecifications of the working models. However, the calibration estimator, which is also based on two working models, can be highly unstable when missingness probabilities for some observations are extremely high. In this scenario, the proposed method produces more stable and better estimates. In addition, proper weights need to be chosen to balance the contributions from the two working models and achieve optimal results for the proposed method.ConclusionsWe conclude that the proposed multiple imputation method is a reasonable approach to dealing with missing categorical outcome data with more than two levels for assessing the distribution of the outcome. In terms of the choices for the working models, we suggest a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing outcome and a binary logistic regression for predicting the missingness probability.

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Performance of a mixture model by the degree of a missing categorical covariate when estimating clearance in NONMEM.

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