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A Nomogram for Predicting Severe Exacerbations in Stable COPD Patients.

ABSTRACT: Objective:To develop a practicable nomogram aimed at predicting the risk of severe exacerbations in COPD patients at three and five years. Methods:COPD patients with prospective follow-up data were extracted from Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) obtained from National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. We comprehensively considered the demographic characteristics, clinical data and inflammation marker of disease severity. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to identify the best combination of predictors on the basis of the smallest Akaike Information Criterion. A nomogram was developed and evaluated on discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis, respectively. Internal validation of the nomogram was assessed by the calibration plot with 1000 bootstrapped resamples. Results:Among 1711 COPD patients, 523 (30.6%) suffered from at least one severe exacerbation during follow-up. After stepwise regression analysis, six variables were determined including BMI, severe exacerbations in the prior year, comorbidity index, post-bronchodilator FEV1% predicted, and white blood cells. Nomogram to estimate patients' likelihood of severe exacerbations at three and five years was established. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.71-0.76), outperforming ADO, BODE and DOSE risk score. Besides, the calibration plot of three and five years showed great agreement between nomogram predicted possibility and actual risk. Decision curve analysis indicated that implementation of the nomogram in clinical practice would be beneficial and better than aforementioned risk scores. Conclusion:Our new nomogram was a useful tool to assess the probability of severe exacerbations at three and five years for COPD patients and could facilitate clinicians in stratifying patients and providing optimal therapies.

SUBMITTER: Chen X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7035888 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Nomogram for Predicting Severe Exacerbations in Stable COPD Patients.

Chen Xueying X Wang Qi Q Hu Yinan Y Zhang Lei L Xiong Weining W Xu Yongjian Y Yu Jun J Wang Yi Y

International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 20200218

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a practicable nomogram aimed at predicting the risk of severe exacerbations in COPD patients at three and five years.<h4>Methods</h4>COPD patients with prospective follow-up data were extracted from Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) obtained from National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. We comprehensively considered the demographic characteristics, ...[more]

PMID: 32110006

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Project description:BackgroundRetrospective studies have shown that statins decrease the rate and severity of exacerbations, the rate of hospitalization, and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We prospectively studied the efficacy of simvastatin in preventing exacerbations in a large, multicenter, randomized trial.MethodsWe designed the Prospective Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Simvastatin in the Prevention of COPD Exacerbations (STATCOPE) as a randomized, controlled trial of simvastatin (at a daily dose of 40 mg) versus placebo, with annual exacerbation rates as the primary outcome. Patients were eligible if they were 40 to 80 years of age, had COPD (defined by a forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] of less than 80% and a ratio of FEV1 to forced vital capacity of less than 70%), and had a smoking history of 10 or more pack-years, were receiving supplemental oxygen or treatment with glucocorticoids or antibiotic agents, or had had an emergency department visit or hospitalization for COPD within the past year. Patients with diabetes or cardiovascular disease and those who were taking statins or who required statins on the basis of Adult Treatment Panel III criteria were excluded. Participants were treated from 12 to 36 months at 45 centers.ResultsA total of 885 participants with COPD were enrolled for approximately 641 days; 44% of the patients were women. The patients had a mean (±SD) age of 62.2±8.4 years, an FEV1 that was 41.6±17.7% of the predicted value, and a smoking history of 50.6±27.4 pack-years. At the time of study closeout, the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were lower in the simvastatin-treated patients than in those who received placebo. The mean number of exacerbations per person-year was similar in the simvastatin and placebo groups: 1.36±1.61 exacerbations and 1.39±1.73 exacerbations, respectively (P=0.54). The median number of days to the first exacerbation was also similar: 223 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 195 to 275) and 231 days (95% CI, 193 to 303), respectively (P=0.34). The number of nonfatal serious adverse events per person-year was similar, as well: 0.63 events with simvastatin and 0.62 events with placebo. There were 30 deaths in the placebo group and 28 in the simvastatin group (P=0.89).ConclusionsSimvastatin at a daily dose of 40 mg did not affect exacerbation rates or the time to a first exacerbation in patients with COPD who were at high risk for exacerbations. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; STATCOPE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01061671.).

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A Nomogram for Predicting Severe Exacerbations in Stable COPD Patients.

Publications

A Nomogram for Predicting Severe Exacerbations in Stable COPD Patients.

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