Dataset Information

Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States.

ABSTRACT: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from U.S. anthropogenic sources is decreasing. However, previous studies have predicted that PM2.5 emissions from wildfires will increase in the midcentury to next century, potentially offsetting improvements gained by continued reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, some regions could experience worse air quality, degraded visibility, and increases in population-level exposure. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the impacts of changing fire emissions on air quality, visibility, and premature deaths in the middle and late 21st century. We find that PM2.5 concentrations will decrease overall in the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to decreasing anthropogenic emissions (total PM2.5 decreases by 3% in Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5 and 34% in RCP4.5 by 2100), but increasing fire-related PM2.5 (fire-related PM2.5 increases by 55% in RCP4.5 and 190% in RCP8.5 by 2100) offsets these benefits and causes increases in total PM2.5 in some regions. We predict that the average visibility will improve across the CONUS, but fire-related PM2.5 will reduce visibility on the worst days in western and southeastern U.S. regions. We estimate that the number of deaths attributable to total PM2.5 will decrease in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (from 6% to 4-5%), but the absolute number of premature deaths attributable to fire-related PM2.5 will double compared to early 21st century. We provide the first estimates of future smoke health and visibility impacts using a prognostic land-fire model. Our results suggest the importance of using realistic fire emissions in future air quality projections.

SUBMITTER: Ford B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7038896 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States.

Ford B B Val Martin M M Zelasky S E SE Fischer E V EV Anenberg S C SC Heald C L CL Pierce J R JR

GeoHealth 20180803 8

Fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) from U.S. anthropogenic sources is decreasing. However, previous studies have predicted that PM<sub>2.5</sub> emissions from wildfires will increase in the midcentury to next century, potentially offsetting improvements gained by continued reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, some regions could experience worse air quality, degraded visibility, and increases in population-level exposure. We use global climate model simulations to estimate t ...[more]

PMID: 32159016

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Project description:Background People who smoke with serious mental illness carry disproportionate costs from smoking, including poor health and premature death from tobacco-related illnesses. Hospitals in New Zealand are ostensibly smoke-free; however, some mental health wards have resisted implementing this policy. Aim This study explored smoking in acute metal health wards using data emerging from a large sociological study on modern acute psychiatric units. Methods Eighty-five in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with staff and service users from four units. Data were analysed using a social constructionist problem representation approach. Results Although high-level smoke-free policies were mandatory, most participants disregarded these policies and smoking occurred in internal courtyards. Staff reasoned that acute admissions were not the time to quit smoking, citing the sceptres of distress and possibly violence; further, they found smoking challenging to combat. Inconsistent enforcement of smoke-free policies was common and problematic. Many service users also rejected smoke-free policies; they considered smoking facilitated social connections, alleviated boredom, and helped them feel calm in a distressing environment – some started or increased smoking following admission. A minority viewed smoking as a problem; a fire hazard, or pollutant. No one mentioned its health risks. Conclusion Psychiatric wards remain overlooked corners where hospital smoke-free policies are inconsistently applied or ignored. Well-meaning staff hold strong but anachronistic views about smoking. To neglect smoking cessation support for people with serious mental illness is discriminatory and perpetuates health and socioeconomic inequities. However, blanket applications of generic policy are unlikely to succeed. Solutions may include myth-busting education for service users and staff, local champions, and strong managerial support and leadership, with additional resourcing during transition phases. Smoke-free policies need consistent application with non-judgemental NRT and, potentially, other treatments. Smoking cessation would be supported by better designed facilities with more options for alleviating boredom, expressing autonomy, facilitating social connections, and reducing distress.

Dataset Information

Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States.

Publications

Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States.

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