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Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In India, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly in recent decades. Given the association between overweight and obesity with many non-communicable diseases, forecasts of the future prevalence of overweight and obesity can help inform policy in a country where around one sixth of the world's population resides. METHODS:We used a system of multi-state life tables to forecast overweight and obesity prevalence among Indians aged 20-69 years by age, sex and urban/rural residence to 2040. We estimated the incidence and initial prevalence of overweight using nationally representative data from the National Family Health Surveys 3 and 4, and the Study on global AGEing and adult health, waves 0 and 1. We forecasted future mortality, using the Lee-Carter model fitted life tables reported by the Sample Registration System, and adjusted the mortality rates for Body Mass Index using relative risks from the literature. RESULTS:The prevalence of overweight will more than double among Indian adults aged 20-69 years between 2010 and 2040, while the prevalence of obesity will triple. Specifically, the prevalence of overweight and obesity will reach 30.5% (27.4%-34.4%) and 9.5% (5.4%-13.3%) among men, and 27.4% (24.5%-30.6%) and 13.9% (10.1%-16.9%) among women, respectively, by 2040. The largest increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity between 2010 and 2040 is expected to be in older ages, and we found a larger relative increase in overweight and obesity in rural areas compared to urban areas. The largest relative increase in overweight and obesity prevalence was forecast to occur at older age groups. CONCLUSION:The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity is expected to increase considerably in India by 2040, with substantial increases particularly among rural residents and older Indians. Detailed predictions of excess weight are crucial in estimating future non-communicable disease burdens and their economic impact.

SUBMITTER: Luhar S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7039458 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040.

Luhar Shammi S Timæus Ian M IM Jones Rebecca R Cunningham Solveig S Patel Shivani A SA Kinra Sanjay S Clarke Lynda L Houben Rein R

PloS one 20200224 2

<h4>Background</h4>In India, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased rapidly in recent decades. Given the association between overweight and obesity with many non-communicable diseases, forecasts of the future prevalence of overweight and obesity can help inform policy in a country where around one sixth of the world's population resides.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a system of multi-state life tables to forecast overweight and obesity prevalence among Indians aged 20-69 years by age, ...[more]

PMID: 32092114

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Project description:ObjectivesThe purpose of this study is to assess the prevalence of overweight/obesity, abdominal obesity and obesity-related risk factors in southern China.MethodsA cross-sectional survey of 15,364 participants aged 15 years and older was conducted from November 2013 to August 2014 in Jiangxi Province, China, using questionnaire forms and physical measurements. The physical measurements included body height, weight, waist circumference (WC), body fat percentage (BFP) and visceral adipose index (VAI). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the risk factors for overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity.ResultsThe prevalence of overweight was 25.8% (25.9% in males and 25.7% in females), while that of obesity was 7.9% (8.4% in males and 7.6% in females). The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 10.2% (8.6% in males and 11.3% in females). The prevalence of overweight/obesity was 37.1% in urban residents and 30.2% in rural residents, and this difference was significant (P < 0.001). Urban residents had a significantly higher prevalence of abdominal obesity than rural residents (11.6% vs 8.7%, P < 0.001). Among the participants with an underweight/normal body mass index (BMI), 1.3% still had abdominal obesity, 16.1% had a high BFP and 1.0% had a high VAI. Moreover, among obese participants, 9.7% had a low /normal WC, 0.8% had a normal BFP and 15.9% had a normal VAI. Meanwhile, the partial correlation analysis indicated that the correlation coefficients between VAI and BMI, VAI and WC, and BMI and WC were 0.700, 0.666, and 0.721, respectively. A multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being female and having a high BFP and a high VAI were significantly associated with an increased risk of overweight/obesity and abdominal obesity. In addition, living in an urban area and older age correlated with overweight/obesity.ConclusionThis study revealed that obesity and abdominal obesity, which differed by gender and age, are epidemic in southern China. Moreover, there was a very high, significant, positive correlation between WC, BMI and VAI. However, further studies are needed to explore which indicator of body fat could be used as the best marker to indirectly reflect cardiometabolic risk.

Project description:Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model.The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation from the forecast model are compared to three observationally-based meteorological datasets. These time series are then used to drive the disease model, producing a simulated forecast of malaria and three synthetic malaria time series that are qualitatively compared to contemporary and pre-intervention malaria estimates. The area under the Relative Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is calculated as a quantitative metric of forecast skill, comparing the forecast to the meteorologically-driven synthetic malaria time series.The forecast shows probabilistic skill in predicting the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence when compared to the simulated meteorologically-driven malaria time series, particularly where modelled incidence shows high seasonal and interannual variability such as in Orissa, West Bengal, and Jharkhand (North-east India), and Gujarat, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (North-west India). Focusing on these two regions, the malaria forecast is able to distinguish between years of "high", "above average" and "low" malaria incidence in the peak malaria transmission seasons, with more than 70% sensitivity and a statistically significant area under the ROC curve. These results are encouraging given that the three month forecast lead time used is well in excess of the target for early warning systems adopted by the World Health Organization. This approach could form the basis of an operational system to identify the probability of regional malaria epidemics, allowing advanced and targeted allocation of resources for combatting malaria in India.

Project description:Background and aims: Youth populations with overweight/obesity (OW/OB) exhibit heterogeneity in cardiometabolic health phenotypes (e.g. fasting glucose, serum triglycerides, etc.). The underling mechanisms for those differences are still unclear. This study aimed to analyze the whole blood transcriptome profile (RNA-seq) of children with metabolic healthy overweight/obesity (MHO) and metabolic unhealthy overweight/obesity (MUO) phenotypes. Methods: 27 children with OW/OB (10.14 ± 1.3 years, 59% boys) from the ActiveBrains project were included. MHO was defined as having none of the following criteria for metabolic syndrome: elevated fasting glucose, high serum triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high systolic or diastolic blood pressure, while MUO was defined as presenting one or more of these criteria. Inflammatory markers interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), epidermal growth factor (EGF) and, vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF) were additionally determined. Total-blood RNA was analyzed by 5’-end RNA sequencing. Two different bioinformatics approaches were performed: 1) Differential gene expression analyses using Limma R/Bioconductor software package (analyses adjusted by sex and maturational status) and 2) weighted gene coexpression network analyses (WGCNA). Results: Children with MHO had lower values of pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α and IL-6 compared to MUO (p < 0.05). 40 genes were differentially expressed (FDR < 0.05) in children with MHO compared to MUO. WGCNA analysis identified 23 gene coexpression modules (i.e. clusters of genes) with low preservation (Zsummary < 2) in children with MHO compared to MUO. Differential and WGCNA gene expression patterns identified 32 genes linked to metabolism, mitochondrial and immune functions. Conclusions: Whole blood transcriptome analysis revealed a distinct pattern of gene expression in children with MHO compared to MUO children. The identified gene expression patterns related to metabolism, mitochondrial and immune functions can promote a better understanding of cardiovascular disease prognosis in individuals with MHO.

Dataset Information

Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040.

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Forecasting the prevalence of overweight and obesity in India to 2040.

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