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Predictors of neonatal mortality: development and validation of prognostic models using prospective data from rural Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: Objective:To assess the extent to which maternal histories of newborn danger signs independently or combined with birth weight and/or gestational age (GA) can capture and/or predict postsecond day (age>48?hours) neonatal death. Methods:Data from a cluster-randomised trial conducted in rural Bangladesh were split into development and validation sets. The prompted recall of danger signs and birth weight measurements were collected within 48?hours postchildbirth. Maternally recalled danger signs included cyanosis (any part of the infant's body was blue at birth), non-cephalic presentation (part other than head came out first at birth), lethargy (weak or no arm/leg movement and/or cry at birth), trouble suckling (infant unable to suckle/feed normally in the 2?days after birth or before death, collected 1-month postpartum or from verbal autopsy). Last menstrual period was collected at maternal enrolment early in pregnancy. Singleton newborns surviving 2?days past childbirth were eligible for analysis. Prognostic multivariable models were developed and internally validated. Results:Recalling ?1?sign of lethargy, cyanosis, non-cephalic presentation or trouble suckling identified postsecond day neonatal death with 65.3% sensitivity, 60.8% specificity, 2.1% positive predictive value (PPV) and 99.3% negative predictive value (NPV) in the development set. Requiring either lethargy or weight <2.5 kg identified 89.1% of deaths (at 39.7% specificity, 1.9% PPV and 99.6% NPV) while lethargy or preterm birth (<37 weeks) captured 81.0% of deaths (at 53.6% specificity, 2.3% PPV and 99.5% NPV). A simplified model (birth weight, GA, lethargy, cyanosis, non-cephalic presentation and trouble suckling) predicted death with good discrimination (validation area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.80, 95%?CI 0.73 to 0.87). A further simplified model (GA, non-cephalic presentation, lethargy, trouble suckling) predicted death with moderate discrimination (validation AUC 0.74, 95%?CI 0.66 to 0.81). Conclusion:Maternally recalled danger signs, coupled to either birth weight or GA, can predict and capture postsecond day neonatal death with high discrimination and sensitivity.

SUBMITTER: Khan FA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7042570 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of neonatal mortality: development and validation of prognostic models using prospective data from rural Bangladesh.

Khan Farhad A FA Mullany Luke C LC Wu Lee F-S LF Ali Hasmot H Shaikh Saijuddin S Alland Kelsey K West Keith P KP Labrique Alain B AB

BMJ global health 20200127 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the extent to which maternal histories of newborn danger signs independently or combined with birth weight and/or gestational age (GA) can capture and/or predict postsecond day (age>48 hours) neonatal death.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from a cluster-randomised trial conducted in rural Bangladesh were split into development and validation sets. The prompted recall of danger signs and birth weight measurements were collected within 48 hours postchildbirth. Maternally recalled ...[more]

PMID: 32133171

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Project description:BackgroundAdopted in 2015, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set specific targets (SDG 3.2) for countries to reduce their neonatal mortality rate (NMR) to below 12 deaths per 1000 live births and under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) to below 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. For Pakistan to achieve these targets, there is a need to measure these rates and understand the predictors of child mortality at sub-national level. Launched in 2016, the Umeed-e-Nau (UeN) or New Hope project is based on scaling up proven and effective Maternal and Newborn Child Health (MNCH) interventions in 8 of the highest burden districts of the country, using existing public sector platforms in Pakistan at both the community and facility level. The primary aim of the project is to reduce perinatal mortality in these districts by 20% from baseline.MethodsWe report overall neonatal and post neonatal mortality rates for the two years preceding the UeN baseline household survey. Rates were calculated using the synthetic cohort probability method and predictors of neonatal and post neonatal mortality examined using Cox regression. To investigate spatial variations in the mortality rates, we calculated Moran's I at the district level using predicted probabilities of mortality. Finally, we create district level maps of predicted under 5 child mortality using a stochastic partial differentiation approach.FindingsA total of 26,258 children contributed to the analysis of mortality with 838 deaths in the neonatal period and 2236 under-5 deaths during the observation period from March 1, 2015 to March 17, 2017. Overall, we estimated the NMR to be 29.2 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 26.9-31.4) and the U5MR to be 86.1 per 1000 live births (95% CI: 85.5-86.8). We found evidence of within-district geospatial clustering of under 5 mortality (P < 0.0001) and that social factors (poverty, illiteracy, multiparity), poor coverage of community health workers and distance from health facilities were strongly associated with child mortality.InterpretationImportant factors associated with neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in our study population included maternal education, parity, household size and gender. Additionally, antenatal care coverage (at least 4 visits) was specifically associated with neonatal mortality only, whereas, LHW coverage and distance to health facility were strongly associated with post-neonatal mortality. These findings emphasise the need for comprehensive, multisectoral strategies to be implemented for future maternal and child health programs and outreach services in rural areas.FundingThe study was funded by an unrestricted grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the Aga Khan University (Grant OPP 1148892).

Project description:BackgroundNeonatal mortality remains unacceptably high in many countries. WHO recommends that all newborns be assessed during the postnatal period and should seek prompt medical care if there is any danger sign. However, in many developing countries, only a small proportion of women receive postnatal care. Also, the quality of care in public health facilities is sub-optimal.MethodsWe designed an intervention package that included community health worker-assisted pregnancy and birth surveillance, post-natal visits to assess newborns on the first, third, seventh and twenty-eighth days of birth, referral for facility-based care, and establishing a newborn stabilization unit at the first level referral health facility. We did a quasi-experimental, propensity-score matched, controlled study in the Sylhet region of Bangladesh. We used a cross-sectional survey method at baseline and endline to measure the effect of our intervention. We considered two indicators for the primary outcome-(a) all-cause neonatal mortality rate and (b) case fatality of severe illness. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of neonates with signs and symptoms of severe illness who sought care in a hospital or a medically qualified provider.ResultsOur sample size was 9,940 live births (4,257 at baseline, 5,683 at end line). Our intervention was significantly associated with a 39% reduction (aRR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.40-0.93; p = 0.046) in the risk of neonatal mortality and 45% reduction (aRR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.35-0.86; p = 0.001) in the risk of case fatality of severe illness among newborns in rural Bangladesh. The intervention significantly increased the care-seeking for severe illness at the first-level referral facility (DID 36.6%; 95% CI % 27.98 to 45.22; p<0.001).InterpretationOur integrated community-facility interventions model resulted in early identification of severely sick neonates, early care seeking and improved treatment. The interventions led to a significant reduction in all-cause neonatal mortality and case fatality from severe illness.

Project description:BackgroundChild and neonatal mortality is a serious problem in Bangladesh. The main objective of this study was to determine the most significant socio-economic factors (covariates) between the years 2011 and 2014 that influences on neonatal and child mortality and to further suggest the plausible policy proposals.MethodsWe modeled the neonatal and child mortality as categorical dependent variable (alive vs death of the child) while 16 covariates are used as independent variables using χ2 statistic and multiple logistic regression (MLR) based on maximum likelihood estimate.FindingsUsing the MLR, for neonatal mortality, diarrhea showed the highest positive coefficient (β = 1.130; P < 0.010) leading to most significant covariate for both 2011 and 2014. The corresponding odds ratios were: 0.323 for both the years. The second most significant covariate in 2011 was birth order between 2-6 years (β = 0.744; P < 0.001), while father's education was negative correlation (β = -0.910; P < 0.050). In general, 10 covariates in 2011 and 5 covariates in 2014 were significant, so there was an improvement in socio-economic conditions for neonatal mortality. For child mortality, birth order between 2-6 years and 7 and above years showed the highest positive coefficients (β = 1.042; P < 0.010) and (β = 1.285; P < 0.050) for 2011. The corresponding odds ratios were: 2.835 and 3.614, respectively. Father's education showed the highest coefficient (β = 0.770; P < 0.050) indicating the significant covariate for 2014 and the corresponding odds ratio was 2.160. In general, 6 covariates in 2011 and 4 covariates in 2014 were also significant, so there was also an improvement in socio-economic conditions for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh.ConclusionsIn 2014, mother's age and father's education were also still significant covariates for child mortality. This study allows policy makers to make appropriate decisions to reduce neonatal and child mortality in Bangladesh.

Project description:Background:The present study aimed to examine the risk factors for death due to pneumonia in young children and healthcare behaviors of the guardians for children in rural Bangladesh. A prospective autopsy study was conducted among guardians of children aged 4 weeks to 59 months in Mirzapur, Bangladesh, from 2008 to 2012. Results:Pneumonia was the primary cause of death, accounting for 26.4% (n?=?81) of all 307 deaths. Of the pneumonia deaths, 58% (n?=?47) deaths occurred in younger infants (aged 4 weeks to <?6 months) and 24.7% (n?=?20) in older infants (aged 6-11 months). The median duration of illness before pneumonia death was 8 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3-20 days). Prior to death, 91.4% (n?=?74) children with pneumonia sought treatment, and of those who sought treatment, 52.7% (n?=?39) sought treatment ??2 days after the onset of disease. Younger infants of 4 weeks to <?6 months old were at 5.5-time (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5, 12.0) and older infants aged 6-11 months were at 3-time (1.2, 7.5) greater risk of dying from pneumonia than older children aged 12-59 months. Children with a prolonged duration of illness (2-10 days) prior to death were at more risk for death by pneumonia than those who died from other causes (5.8 [2.1, 16.1]). Children who died from pneumonia sought treatment 3.4-time more than children who died from other causes. Delayed treatment seeking (??2 days) behavior was 4.9-time more common in children who died from pneumonia than those who died from other causes. Children who died from pneumonia more often had access to care from multiple sources (5.7-time) than children who died from other causes. Conclusions:Delay in seeking appropriate care and access to multiple sources for treatment are the underlying risk factors for pneumonia death in young children in Bangladesh. These results indicate the perplexity in guardians' decisions to secure appropriate treatment for children with pneumonia. Therefore, it further underscores the importance of focusing on mass media coverage that can outline the benefits of seeking care early in the progression of pneumonia and the potential negative consequences of seeking care late.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Majority burn mortality prognostic scores were developed and validated in western populations. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate and identify possible risk factors which may be used to predict burns mortality in a local Malaysian burns intensive care unit. The secondary objective was to validate the five well known burn prognostic scores (Baux score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI) score, Ryan score, Belgium Outcome Burn Injury (BOBI) score and revised Baux score) to predict burn mortality prediction. METHODS:Patients that were treated at the Hospital Sultan Ismail's Burns Intensive Care (BICU) unit for acute burn injuries between 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2017 were included. Risk factors to predict in-patient burn mortality were gender, age, mechanism of injury, total body surface area burn (TBSA), inhalational injury, mechanical ventilation, presence of tracheotomy, time from of burn injury to BICU admission and initial centre of first emergency treatment was administered. These variables were analysed using univariate and multivariate analysis for the outcomes of death. All patients were scored retrospectively using the five-burn mortality prognostic scores. Predictive ability for burn mortality was analysed using the area under receiver operating curve (AUROC). RESULTS:A total of 525 patients (372 males and 153 females) with mean age of 34.5?±?14.6?years were included. There were 463 survivors and 62 deaths (11.8% mortality rate). The outcome of the primary objective showed that amongst the burn mortality risk factors that remained after multivariate analysis were older age (p?=?0.004), wider TBSA burn (p?<?0.001) and presence of mechanical ventilation (p?<?0.001). Outcome of secondary objective showed good AUROC value for the prediction of burn death for all five burn prediction scores (Baux score; AUROC:0.9, ABSI score; AUROC:0.92, Ryan score; AUROC:0.87, BOBI score; AUROC:0.91 and revised Baux score; AUROC:0.94). The revised Baux score had the best AUROC value of 0.94 to predict burns mortality. CONCLUSION:Current study evaluated and identified older age, total body surface area burns, and mechanical ventilation as significant predictors of burn mortality. In addition, the revised Baux score was the most accurate burn mortality risk score to predict mortality in a Malaysian burn's population.

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Predictors of neonatal mortality: development and validation of prognostic models using prospective data from rural Bangladesh.

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Predictors of neonatal mortality: development and validation of prognostic models using prospective data from rural Bangladesh.

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