Dataset Information

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

ABSTRACT: Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long-term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.

SUBMITTER: Fay R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7042680 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Fay Rémi R Michler Stephanie S Laesser Jacques J Jeanmonod Jacques J Schaub Michael M

Ecology and evolution 20200207 4

Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long-term monitori ...[more]

PMID: 32128129

Similar Datasets

Project description:Raptors are exposed to a wide variety of human-related mortality agents, and yet population-level effects are rarely quantified. Doing so requires modeling vital rates in the context of species life-history, behavior, and population dynamics theory. In this paper, we explore the details of such an analysis by focusing on the demography of a resident, tree-nesting population of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the vicinity of an extensive (142 km2) windfarm in California. During 1994-2000, we tracked the fates of >250 radio-marked individuals of four life-stages and conducted five annual surveys of territory occupancy and reproduction. Collisions with wind turbines accounted for 41% of 88 uncensored fatalities, most of which were subadults and nonbreeding adults (floaters). A consistent overall male preponderance in the population meant that females were the limiting sex in this territorial, monogamous species. Estimates of potential population growth rate and associated variance indicated a stable breeding population, but one for which any further decrease in vital rates would require immigrant floaters to fill territory vacancies. Occupancy surveys 5 and 13 years later (2005 and 2013) showed that the nesting population remained intact, and no upward trend was apparent in the proportion of subadult eagles as pair members, a condition that would have suggested a deficit of adult replacements. However, the number of golden eagle pairs required to support windfarm mortality was large. We estimated that the entire annual reproductive output of 216-255 breeding pairs would have been necessary to support published estimates of 55-65 turbine blade-strike fatalities per year. Although the vital rates forming the basis for these calculations may have changed since the data were collected, our approach should be useful for gaining a clearer understanding of how anthropogenic mortality affects the health of raptor populations, particularly those species with delayed maturity and naturally low reproductive rates.

Project description:Since the end of the nineteenth century, socio-economic changes have greatly altered the Central European landscape and the structural and functional quality of habitats. Urban sprawl areas have appeared, a reduction of multiple forest uses has resulted in the densification of forests and agricultural land use has changed fundamentally through specialisation and intensification. Many of these changes affect biodiversity. To determine the important drivers of spatio-temporal dynamics of the population of 28 game species, we first considered a total of 130 potential explanatory variables. Second, we aggregated the main drivers of single-species models for habitat guilds. Third, we evaluated the results to aid in the development and implementation of mitigation measures for different ecoregions. We used harvest data as a surrogate for population density from 1875 to 2014 in South Tyrol, Italy. In generalised linear models, we used environmental characteristics such as climate, landscape diversity and structures, land cover, hunting, wildlife diseases, competition and predation, land-use type, and intensity (including pesticide use) as explanatory variables to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of game species. The important drivers are land use and management changes (intensification in the agriculturally favourable areas, extensification or abandonment in the unfavourable areas) as well as associated changes in the landscape features, diversity and structure, and hunting management. Climatic variables, interspecific competition and diseases only play a subordinate role. The dynamics of the habitat guilds and their drivers provide concrete indications for measures to maintain or improve the habitat quality for the investigated species. Particularly important are transfer payments to ensure extensive agricultural use, increasingly through the takeover of personnel costs, but also for the installation of an independent body that monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of the measures.

Dataset Information

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Publications

Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets