Dataset Information

Causal Structure Learning in Continuous Systems.

ABSTRACT: Real causal systems are complicated. Despite this, causal learning research has traditionally emphasized how causal relations can be induced on the basis of idealized events, i.e., those that have been mapped to binary variables and abstracted from time. For example, participants may be asked to assess the efficacy of a headache-relief pill on the basis of multiple patients who take the pill (or not) and find their headache relieved (or not). In contrast, the current study examines learning via interactions with continuous dynamic systems, systems that include continuous variables that interact over time (and that can be continuously observed in real time by the learner). To explore such systems, we develop a new framework that represents a causal system as a network of stationary Gauss-Markov ("Ornstein-Uhlenbeck") processes and show how such OU networks can express complex dynamic phenomena, such as feedback loops and oscillations. To assess adult's abilities to learn such systems, we conducted an experiment in which participants were asked to identify the causal relationships of a number of OU networks, potentially carrying out multiple, temporally-extended interventions. We compared their judgments to a normative model for learning OU networks as well as a range of alternative and heuristic learning models from the literature. We found that, although participants exhibited substantial learning of such systems, they committed certain systematic errors. These successes and failures were best accounted for by a model that describes people as focusing on pairs of variables, rather than evaluating the evidence with respect to the full space of possible structural models. We argue that our approach provides both a principled framework for exploring the space of dynamic learning environments as well as new algorithmic insights into how people interact successfully with a continuous causal world.

SUBMITTER: Davis ZJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7044349 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Causal Structure Learning in Continuous Systems.

Davis Zachary J ZJ Bramley Neil R NR Rehder Bob B

Frontiers in psychology 20200220

Real causal systems are complicated. Despite this, causal learning research has traditionally emphasized how causal relations can be induced on the basis of idealized events, i.e., those that have been mapped to binary variables and abstracted from time. For example, participants may be asked to assess the efficacy of a headache-relief pill on the basis of multiple patients who take the pill (or not) and find their headache relieved (or not). In contrast, the current study examines learning via ...[more]

PMID: 32153464

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Project description:The brain integrates streams of sensory input and builds accurate predictions, while arriving at stable percepts under disparate time scales. This stochastic process bears different unfolding dynamics for different people, yet statistical learning (SL) currently averages out, as noise, individual fluctuations in data streams registered from the brain as the person learns. We here adopt a new analytical approach that instead of averaging out fluctuations in continuous electroencephalographic (EEG)-based data streams, takes these gross data as the important signals. Our new approach reassesses how individuals dynamically learn predictive information in stable and unstable environments. We find neural correlates for two types of learners in a visuomotor task: narrow-variance learners, who retain explicit knowledge of the regularity embedded in the stimuli. They seem to use an error-correction strategy steadily present in both stable and unstable environments. This strategy can be captured by current optimization-based computational frameworks. In contrast, broad-variance learners emerge only in the unstable environment. Local analyses of the moment-by-moment fluctuations, naïve to the overall outcome, reveal an initial period of memoryless learning, well characterized by a continuous gamma process starting out exponentially distributed whereby all future events are equally probable, with high signal (mean) to noise (variance) ratio. The empirically derived continuous Gamma process smoothly converges to predictive Gaussian signatures comparable to those observed for the error-corrective mode that is captured by current optimization-driven computational models. We coin this initially seemingly purposeless stage exploratory. Globally, we examine a posteriori the fluctuations in distributions' shapes over the empirically estimated stochastic signatures. We then confirm that the exploratory mode of those learners, free of expectation, random and memoryless, but with high signal, precedes the acquisition of the error-correction mode boasting smooth transition from exponential to symmetric distributions' shapes. This early naïve phase of the learning process has been overlooked by current models driven by expected, predictive information and error-based learning. Our work demonstrates that (statistical) learning is a highly dynamic and stochastic process, unfolding at different time scales, and evolving distinct learning strategies on demand.

Dataset Information

Causal Structure Learning in Continuous Systems.

Publications

Causal Structure Learning in Continuous Systems.

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