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Development and validation of risk stratification trees for incident slow gait speed in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Disability prevention strategies are more achievable before osteoarthritis disease drives impairment. It is critical to identify high-risk groups, for strategy implementation and trial eligibility. An established measure, gait speed is associated with disability and mortality. We sought to develop and validate risk stratification trees for incident slow gait in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis, feasible in community and clinical settings. METHODS:Osteoarthritis Initiative (derivation cohort) and Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (validation cohort) participants at high risk for knee osteoarthritis were included. Outcome was incident slow gait over up to 10-year follow-up. Derivation cohort classification and regression tree analysis identified predictors from easily assessed variables and developed risk stratification models, then applied to the validation cohort. Logistic regression compared risk group predictive values; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) summarised discrimination ability. RESULTS:1870 (derivation) and 1279 (validation) persons were included. The most parsimonious tree identified three risk groups, from stratification based on age and WOMAC Function. A 7-risk-group tree also included education, strenuous sport/recreational activity, obesity and depressive symptoms; outcome occurred in 11%, varying 0%-29 % (derivation) and 2%-23 % (validation) depending on risk group. AUCs were comparable in the two cohorts (7-risk-group tree, 0.75, 95%?CI 0.72 to 0.78 (derivation); 0.72, 95%?CI 0.68 to 0.76 (validation)). CONCLUSIONS:In persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis, easily acquired data can be used to identify those at high risk of incident functional impairment. Outcome risk varied greatly depending on tree-based risk group membership. These trees can inform individual awareness of risk for impaired function and define eligibility for prevention trials.

SUBMITTER: Sharma L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7044716 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of risk stratification trees for incident slow gait speed in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis.

Sharma Leena L Kwoh Kent K Lee Jungwha Julia JJ Cauley Jane J Jackson Rebecca R Hochberg Marc M Chang Alison H AH Eaton Charles C Nevitt Michael M Song Jing J Almagor Orit O Chmiel Joan S JS

Annals of the rheumatic diseases 20190626 10

<h4>Objectives</h4>Disability prevention strategies are more achievable before osteoarthritis disease drives impairment. It is critical to identify high-risk groups, for strategy implementation and trial eligibility. An established measure, gait speed is associated with disability and mortality. We sought to develop and validate risk stratification trees for incident slow gait in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis, feasible in community and clinical settings.<h4>Methods</h4>Osteoarthri ...[more]

PMID: 31243017

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Project description:ObjectiveSubjective crepitus is the reporting of hearing grating, cracking, or popping sounds in and/or around a joint. We aimed to evaluate whether there is an association between crepitus and incident symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a multicenter longitudinal US cohort.MethodsKnees without baseline symptomatic OA were included. Crepitus frequency was assessed using a question from the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score at baseline and at 12, 24, and 36 months. Frequent knee pain and radiographs were assessed at baseline and at annual visits up to 48 months. Radiographic OA was defined as a tibiofemoral Kellgren/Lawrence grade ?2. Symptomatic OA was defined as a knee with both frequent symptoms and radiographic OA. We performed a repeated-measures analysis with a predictor of crepitus and outcome of incident symptomatic OA, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), with those never reporting crepitus as the referent group.ResultsThere were a total of 3,495 participants (42.2% male), with mean ± SD age of 61.1 ± 9.2 years and a mean ± SD BMI of 28.2 ± 4.7 kg/m². The odds of incident symptomatic OA were higher with greater frequency of crepitus (never, rarely, sometimes, often, and always, with adjusted odds ratios of (referent), 1.5, 1.8, 2.2, and 3.0, respectively; P < 0.0001 for trend). The group with radiographic OA at OAI baseline but without symptoms contributed 26% of the observations but more than 75% of the incident symptomatic OA cases.ConclusionIn those without symptomatic OA, subjective knee crepitus predicts incident symptomatic OA longitudinally, with most cases occurring in those with preexisting tibiofemoral radiographic OA but without frequent knee pain. However, an important limitation is that patellofemoral OA was not systematically evaluated within the OAI. Subjective crepitus offers utility for the identification of at-risk individuals, predictive modeling, and future research.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of risk stratification trees for incident slow gait speed in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis.

Publications

Development and validation of risk stratification trees for incident slow gait speed in persons at high risk for knee osteoarthritis.

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