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Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

ABSTRACT: Objective:To assess the effect of a permanent gun-carrying restriction on gun-related mortality in Colombia between 2008 and 2014, and determine differences in the effect of the restriction by place of death and sex. Methods:In 2012, Bogotá and Medellín introduced a permanent gun-carrying restriction. We compared gun-related mortality rates in these cities (intervention cities) with the rates in all other Colombian cities with more than 500?000 inhabitants (control cities). We used data from the Colombian National Department of Statistics to calculate monthly gun-related mortality rates between 2008 and 2014 for intervention and control cities. We used a differences-in-differences method with fixed effects to assess differences in gun-related mortality in intervention and control cities before and after the introduction of the gun-carrying restriction. We stratified effects by place of death (public area or residence) and sex. We made robustness checks to test the assumptions of the models. Findings:Gun-related deaths in the control and intervention cities decreased between 2008 and 2014; however, the decrease was greater in the intervention cities (from 20.29 to 14.93 per 100?000 population; 26.4%) than in the control cities (from 37.88 to 34.56 per 100?000 population; 8.8%). The restriction led to a 22.3% reduction in the monthly gun-related mortality rate in Bogotá and Medellín. The reduction was greater in public areas and for males. Robustness checks supported the assumptions of the models. Conclusion:The permanent restriction on carrying guns reduced gun-related deaths. This policy could be used to reduce gun-related injuries in urban centres of other countries with large numbers of gun-related deaths.

SUBMITTER: Vecino-Ortiz AI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7047021 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

Vecino-Ortiz Andres I AI Guzman-Tordecilla Deivis N DN

Bulletin of the World Health Organization 20190117 3

<h4>Objective</h4>To assess the effect of a permanent gun-carrying restriction on gun-related mortality in Colombia between 2008 and 2014, and determine differences in the effect of the restriction by place of death and sex.<h4>Methods</h4>In 2012, Bogotá and Medellín introduced a permanent gun-carrying restriction. We compared gun-related mortality rates in these cities (intervention cities) with the rates in all other Colombian cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants (control cities). We use ...[more]

PMID: 32132751

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Project description:Background:An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables. Objective:Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available. Data and method:We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures. Results:Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes. Conclusion:The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes.

Dataset Information

Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

Publications

Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

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