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Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.

ABSTRACT: Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial epidemiological growth rate--which is a function of mutational load and population susceptibility to the cluster--along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating viruses. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually succeed with ~80% sensitivity, providing up to eight months advance warning. As a cluster expands, the predictions improve while the lead-time for vaccine development and other interventions decreases. However, attempts to make comparable predictions from 12 years of empirical influenza surveillance data, which are far sparser and more coarse-grained, achieve only 56% sensitivity. By expanding influenza surveillance to obtain more granular estimates of the frequencies of and population-wide susceptibility to emerging viruses, we can better anticipate major antigenic transitions. This provides added incentives for accelerating the vaccine production cycle to reduce the lead time required for strain selection.

SUBMITTER: Castro LA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7048310 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.

Castro Lauren A LA Bedford Trevor T Ancel Meyers Lauren L

PLoS computational biology 20200218 2

Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster ...[more]

PMID: 32069282

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Project description:Influenza A H3N2 variant [A(H3N2)v] viruses, which have caused human infections in the United States in recent years, originated from human seasonal H3N2 viruses that were introduced into North American swine in the mid-1990s, but they are antigenically distinct from both the ancestral and current circulating H3N2 strains. A reference A(H3N2)v virus, A/Minnesota/11/2010 (MN/10), and a seasonal H3N2 strain, A/Beijing/32/1992 (BJ/92), were chosen to determine the molecular basis for the antigenic difference between A(H3N2)v and the ancestral viruses. Viruses containing wild-type and mutant MN/10 or BJ/92 hemagglutinins (HAs) were constructed and probed for reactivity with ferret antisera against MN/10 and BJ/92 in hemagglutination inhibition assays. Among the amino acids that differ between the MN/10 and BJ/92 HAs, those in antigenic site A had little impact on the antigenic phenotype. Within antigenic site B, mutations at residues 156, 158, 189, and 193 of MN/10 HA to those in BJ/92 switched the MN/10 antigenic phenotype to that of BJ/92. Mutations at residues 156, 157, 158, 189, and 193 of BJ/92 HA to amino acids present in MN/10 were necessary for BJ/92 to become antigenically similar to MN/10. The HA amino acid substitutions responsible for switching the antigenic phenotype also impacted HA binding to sialyl receptors that are usually present in the human respiratory tract. Our study demonstrates that antigenic site B residues play a critical role in determining both the unique antigenic phenotype and receptor specificity of A(H3N2)v viruses, a finding that may facilitate future surveillance and risk assessment of novel influenza viruses. IMPORTANCE:Influenza A H3N2 variant [A(H3N2)v] viruses have caused hundreds of human infections in multiple states in the United States since 2009. Most cases have been children who had contact with swine in agricultural fairs. These viruses originated from human seasonal H3N2 viruses that were introduced into the U.S. swine population in the mid-1990s, but they are different from both these ancestral viruses and current circulating human seasonal H3N2 strains in terms of their antigenic characteristics as measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. In this study, we identified amino acids in antigenic site B of the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) that explain the antigenic difference between A(H3N2)v and the ancestral H3N2 strains. These amino acid mutations also alter binding to minor human-type glycans, suggesting that host adaptation may contribute to the selection of antigenically distinct H3N2 variants which pose a threat to public health.

Dataset Information

Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.

Publications

Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.

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