Quantifying the risk of Zika virus spread in Asia during the 2015-16 epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

No large-scale Zika epidemic has been observed to date in Southeast Asia following the 2015-16 Latin American and the Caribbean epidemic. One hypothesis is Southeast Asian populations' partial immunity to Zika.

Method

We estimated the two conditions for a Zika outbreak emergence in Southeast Asia: (i) the risk of Zika introduction from Latin America and the Caribbean and, (ii) the risk of autochthonous transmission under varying assumptions on population immunity. We also validated the model used to estimate the risk of introduction by comparing the estimated number of Zika seeds introduced into the United States with case counts reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Results

There was good agreement between our estimates and case

SUBMITTER: Luo XS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7049897 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan - Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature