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Outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election and the subsequent sex ratio at birth in Canada: an ecological study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The sex ratio at birth (proportion of boys to girls) generally shows slight male preponderance but may decrease in response to societal stressors. Discrete adverse events such as terrorist attacks and disasters typically lead to a temporary decline in the sex ratio 3-5 months later, followed by resolution over around 5?months thereafter. We hypothesised that the unexpected outcome of the 2016 US presidential election may have been a societal stressor for liberal-leaning populations and thereby precipitated such an effect on the sex ratio in Canada. DESIGN:Ecological study. SETTING:Administrative data for Ontario (Canada's most populous province). PARTICIPANTS:All births in Ontario from April 2010 to Oct 2017 inclusive (n=1?079?758). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:We determined the sex ratio at birth in Ontario for each month from April 2010 to October 2017 and performed segmented regression analysis to evaluate the seasonally adjusted sex ratio for the following three time periods: before the November 2016 election; after the election to before the anticipated impact; and from anticipated impact to 5?months thereafter. RESULTS:In the 12?months following the election, the lowest sex ratio occurred in March 2017 (4?months post election). Compared with the preceding months, the sex ratio was lower in the 5?months from March to July 2017 (p=0.02) during which time it was rising (p=0.01), reflecting recovery from the nadir. Both effects were seen in liberal-leaning regions of Ontario (lower sex ratio (p=0.006) and recovery (p=0.002) in March-July 2017) but not in conservative-leaning areas (p=0.12?and p=0.49, respectively). CONCLUSION:The 2016 US presidential election preceded a temporary reduction in the sex ratio at birth in Canada, with the time course of changes therein matching the characteristic pattern of a discrete societal stressor.

SUBMITTER: Retnakaran R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7053262 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election and the subsequent sex ratio at birth in Canada: an ecological study.

Retnakaran Ravi R Ye Chang C

BMJ open 20200303 2

<h4>Objectives</h4>The sex ratio at birth (proportion of boys to girls) generally shows slight male preponderance but may decrease in response to societal stressors. Discrete adverse events such as terrorist attacks and disasters typically lead to a temporary decline in the sex ratio 3-5 months later, followed by resolution over around 5 months thereafter. We hypothesised that the unexpected outcome of the 2016 US presidential election may have been a societal stressor for liberal-leaning popula ...[more]

PMID: 32127345

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Project description:Background Anger and extreme stress can trigger potentially fatal cardiovascular events in susceptible people. Political elections, such as the 2016 US presidential election, are significant stressors. Whether they can trigger cardiac arrhythmias is unknown. Methods and Results In this retrospective case-crossover study, we linked cardiac device data, electronic health records, and historic voter registration records from 2436 patients with implanted cardiac devices. The incidence of arrhythmias during the election was compared with a control period with Poisson regression. We also tested for effect modification by demographics, comorbidities, political affiliation, and whether an individual's political affiliation was concordant with county-level election results. Overall, 2592 arrhythmic events occurred in 655 patients during the hazard period compared with 1533 events in 472 patients during the control period. There was a significant increase in the incidence of composite outcomes for any arrhythmia (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.77 [95% CI, 1.42-2.21]), supraventricular arrhythmia (IRR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.36-2.43]), and ventricular arrhythmia (IRR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.22-2.10]) during the election relative to the control period. There was also an increase in specific types of arrhythmia, including atrial fibrillation (IRR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.06-2.11]), supraventricular tachycardia (IRR, 3.7 [95% CI, 2.2-6.2]), nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (IRR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3-2.2]), and daily atrial fibrillation burden (P<0.001). No significant interaction was found for sex, race/ethnicity, device type, age ≥65 years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, political affiliation, or concordance between individual political affiliation and county-level election results. Conclusions There was a significant increase in cardiac arrhythmias during the 2016 US presidential election. These findings suggest that exposure to stressful sociopolitical events may trigger arrhythmogenesis in susceptible people.

Project description:ImportanceThe circumstances surrounding the 2016 US presidential election have been proposed as a significant stressor in the lives of the US Latino population. Few studies to date, however, have evaluated the population health implications of the election for Latina mothers and their children.ObjectiveTo determine whether preterm births (gestational age, <37 weeks) among US Latina women increased above expected levels after the 2016 US presidential election.Design, setting, and participantsIn this national population-based study, an interrupted time series design, used to evaluate whether policies or other population-level changes interrupt a trend in an outcome, compared monthly counts of preterm births to Latina women after the 2016 presidential election with the number expected had the election not taken place. Women residing in the United States who had singleton births during the study period were included. Counts of singleton term and preterm births by month and race/ethnicity from January 1, 2009, through July 30, 2017 (32 860 727 live births), were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wonder online database. These methods were applied separately to male and female births. Data were analyzed from November 8, 2018, through May 7, 2019.ExposuresPregnancy in the 2016 US presidential election.Main outcomes and measuresThe number of male and female preterm births based on the last menstrual period.ResultsAmong the 32 860 727 live births recorded during the study period, 11.0% of male and 9.6% of female births to Latina women were preterm compared with 10.2% and 9.3%, respectively, to other women. In the 9-month period beginning with November 2016, an additional 1342 male (95% CI, 795-1889) and 995 female (95% CI, 554-1436) preterm births to Latina women were found above the expected number of preterm births had the election not occurred.Conclusions and relevanceThe 2016 US presidential election appears to have been associated with an increase in preterm births among US Latina women. Anti-immigration policies have been proposed and enforced in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election; future research should evaluate the association of these actions with population health.

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Outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election and the subsequent sex ratio at birth in Canada: an ecological study.

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Outcome of the 2016 United States presidential election and the subsequent sex ratio at birth in Canada: an ecological study.

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