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Cardiac surgical outcome prediction by blood pressure variability indices Poincare plot and coefficient of variation: a retrospective study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Recent literature suggests a significant association between blood pressure variability (BPV) and postoperative outcomes after cardiac surgery. However, its outcome prediction ability remains unclear. Current prediction models use static preoperative patient factors. We explored the ability of Poincaré plots and coefficient of variation (CV) by measuring intraoperative BPV in predicting adverse outcomes. METHODS:In this retrospective, observational, cohort study, 3687 adult patients (>?18?years) undergoing cardiac surgery requiring cardio-pulmonary bypass from 2008 to 2014 were included. Blood pressure variability was computed by Poincare plots and CV. Standard descriptors (SD) SD1, SD2 were measured with Poincare plots by ellipse fitting technique. The outcomes analyzed were the 30-day mortality and postoperative renal failure. Logistic regression models adjusted for preoperative and surgical factors were constructed to evaluate the association between BPV parameters and outcomes. C-statistics were used to analyse the predictive ability. RESULTS:Analysis found that, 99 (2.7%) patients died within 30?days and 105 (2.8%) patients suffered from in-hospital renal failure. Logistic regression models including BPV parameters (standard descriptors from Poincare plots and CV) performed poorly in predicting postoperative 30-day mortality and renal failure [Concordance(C)-Statistic around 0.5]. They did not add any significant value to the standard STS risk score [C-statistic: STS alone 0.7, STS?+?BPV parmeters 0.7]. CONCLUSIONS:In conclusion, BP variability computed from Poincare plots and CV were not predictive of mortality and renal failure in cardiac surgical patients. Patient comorbid conditions and other preoperative factors are still the gold standard for outcome prediction. Future directions include analysis of dynamic parameters such as complexity of physiological signals in identifying high risk patients and tailoring management accordingly.

SUBMITTER: Packiasabapathy S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7055104 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cardiac surgical outcome prediction by blood pressure variability indices Poincaré plot and coefficient of variation: a retrospective study.

Packiasabapathy Senthil S Prasad Varesh V Rangasamy Valluvan V Popok David D Xu Xinling X Novack Victor V Subramaniam Balachundhar B

BMC anesthesiology 20200303 1

<h4>Background</h4>Recent literature suggests a significant association between blood pressure variability (BPV) and postoperative outcomes after cardiac surgery. However, its outcome prediction ability remains unclear. Current prediction models use static preoperative patient factors. We explored the ability of Poincaré plots and coefficient of variation (CV) by measuring intraoperative BPV in predicting adverse outcomes.<h4>Methods</h4>In this retrospective, observational, cohort study, 3687 a ...[more]

PMID: 32126969

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Project description:BackgroundBlood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with outcome after endovascular thrombectomy in acute large vessel occlusion stroke. We aimed to provide the optimal sampling frequency and BPV index for outcome prediction by using high-resolution blood pressure (BP) data.MethodsPatient characteristics, 3-month outcome, and BP values measured intraarterially at 1 Hz for up to 24 h were extracted from 34 patients treated at a tertiary care center neurocritical care unit. Outcome was dichotomized (modified Rankin Scale 0-2, favorable, and 3-6, unfavorable) and associated with systolic BPV (as calculated by using standard deviation, coefficient of variation, averaged real variability, successive variation, number of trend changes, and a spectral approach using the power of specific BP frequencies). BP values were downsampled by either averaging or omitting all BP values within each prespecified time bin to compare the different sampling rates.ResultsOut of 34 patients (age 72 ± 12.7 years, 67.6% men), 10 (29.4%) achieved a favorable functional outcome and 24 (70.6%) had an unfavorable functional outcome at 3 months. No group differences were found in mean absolute systolic BP (SBP) (130 ± 18 mm Hg, p = 0.82) and diastolic BP (DBP) (59 ± 10 mm Hg, p = 1.00) during the monitoring time. BPV only reached predictive significance when using successive variation extracted from downsampled (averaged over 5 min) SBP data (median 4.8 mm Hg [range 3.8-7.1]) in patients with favorable versus 7.1 mmHg [range 5.5-9.7] in those with unfavorable outcome, area under the curve = 0.74 [confidence interval (CI) 0.57-0.85; p = 0.031], or the power of midrange frequencies between 1/20 and 1/5 min [area under the curve = 0.75 (CI 0.59-0.86), p = 0.020].ConclusionsUsing high-resolution BP data of 1 Hz, downsampling by averaging all BP values within 5-min intervals is essential to find relevant differences in systolic BPV, as noise can be avoided (confirmed by the significance of the power of midrange frequencies). These results demonstrate how high-resolution BP data can be processed for effective outcome prediction.

Project description:The Poincaré plot is a geometrical technique used to visualize and quantify the correlation between two consecutive data points in a time-series. Since the dynamics of fluctuations in physiological rhythms exhibit long-term correlation and memory, this study aimed to extend the Poincaré plot by calculating the correlation between sequential data points in a time-series, rather than between two consecutive points. By incorporating this so-called lag, we hope to integrate a temporal aspect into quantifying the correlation, to depict whether a physiological system holds prolonged association between events separated by time. In doing so, it attempts to instantaneously characterize the intrinsic behavior of a complex system. We tested this hypothesis on three different physiological time-series: heart rate variability in patients with liver cirrhosis, respiratory rhythm in asthma and body temperature fluctuation in patients with cirrhosis, to evaluate the potential application of the extended Poincaré method in clinical practice. When studying the cardiac inter-beat intervals, the extended Poincaré plot revealed a stronger autocorrelation for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis compared to less severe cases using Pearson's correlation coefficient. In addition, long-term variability (known as SD2 in the extended Poincaré plot) appeared as an independent prognostic variable. This holds significance by acting as a non-invasive tool to evaluate patients with chronic liver disease and potentially facilitate transplant selection as an adjuvant to traditional criteria. For asthmatics, employing the extended Poincaré plot allowed for a non-invasive tool to differentially diagnose various classifications of respiratory disease. In the respiratory inter-breath interval analysis, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve provided evidence that the extension of the Poincaré plot holds a greater advantage in the classification of asthmatic patients, over the traditional Poincaré plot. Lastly, the analysis of body temperature from patients using the extended Poincaré plot helped identify inpatients from outpatients with cirrhosis. Through these analyses, the extended Poincaré plot provided unique and additional information which could potentially make a difference in clinical practice. Conclusively, the potential use of our work lies in its possible application of predicting mortality for the organ allocation procedure in patients with cirrhosis and non-invasively distinguish between atopic and non-atopic asthma.

Project description:ObjectivesTo explore the role of the Poincaré plot derived from a 24-hour Holter recording in distinguishing vasovagal syncope (VVS) from postural tachycardia syndrome (POTS) in pediatric patients.Materials and methodsPediatric patients with VVS or POTS, hospitalized in Peking University First Hospital between January 2012 and December 2018, were included in a derivation study. The transverse axis (T), longitudinal axis (L), T/L ratio, product T × L, distance between the origin and the proximal end of the longitudinal axis (pro-D), and distance between the origin and distal end of the longitudinal axis (dis-D) of the Poincaré plot were compared between the VVS and POTS groups, and the differential diagnostic performance of the above-mentioned graphic parameters was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. A validation study was conducted in pediatric patients hospitalized between January 2019 and December 2020.ResultsIn school-aged children, the T, L, T/L, T × L, and dis-D values of patients with VVS were greater than those of patients with POTS; in adolescents, the T, T/L, T × L, and pro-D values of patients with VVS were greater than those of patients with POTS. Using a T/L cut-off value of 0.3 to distinguish between the two diseases, the sensitivity and specificity were 91.0 and 90.5%, respectively, for the total participants; 91.6 and 88.9%, respectively, for the school-aged children; and 82.1 and 95.7%, respectively, for the adolescents. In the validation study, a T/L cut-off value of 0.3 yielded an accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 81.8, 87.2, and 77.6%, respectively, in the total participants; 76.5, 82.6, and 71.4%, respectively, in the school-aged children; and 89.2, 93.8, and 85.7%, respectively, in the adolescents, in distinguishing VVS from POTS validated by clinical diagnosis.ConclusionsThe graphic parameters of the Poincaré plot are significantly different between VVS and POTS in pediatric patients, and the T/L of the Poincaré plot may be a useful measure to help differentiate VVS from POTS in children and adolescents.

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Cardiac surgical outcome prediction by blood pressure variability indices Poincare plot and coefficient of variation: a retrospective study.

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Cardiac surgical outcome prediction by blood pressure variability indices Poincaré plot and coefficient of variation: a retrospective study.

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