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A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community.

ABSTRACT: One of the goals of imprisonment is to reduce violence1. Although imprisonment has risen dramatically since the 1970s, its effects on future violent crime are poorly understood2. This study's objective was to examine the effect of imprisonment on violent crime in the community among individuals on the policy margin between prison and probation sentences. Drawing on data from a population-based cohort of individuals convicted of a felony in Michigan between 2003 and 2006 (n?=?111,110) and followed through June 2015, we compared the rates of commission of violent crime committed by individuals sentenced to prison with those of individuals sentenced to probation using a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to criminal cases. Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.

SUBMITTER: Harding DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7062231 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community.

Harding David J DJ Morenoff Jeffrey D JD Nguyen Anh P AP Bushway Shawn D SD Binswanger Ingrid A IA

Nature human behaviour 20190513 7

One of the goals of imprisonment is to reduce violence<sup>1</sup>. Although imprisonment has risen dramatically since the 1970s, its effects on future violent crime are poorly understood<sup>2</sup>. This study's objective was to examine the effect of imprisonment on violent crime in the community among individuals on the policy margin between prison and probation sentences. Drawing on data from a population-based cohort of individuals convicted of a felony in Michigan between 2003 and 2006 (n ...[more]

PMID: 31086334

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Project description:The present study aimed to investigate the association between bone diseases and community water fluoridation (CWF). An ecological study with a natural experiment design was conducted in Cheongju, South Korea, from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2013. The community water fluoridation program was implemented in Cheongju and divided into CWF and non-CWF areas. To observe adverse health effects related to bone diseases, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the prevalence of hip fracture, osteoporosis, and bone cancer in residents who have lived in CWF and non-CWF areas using National Health Insurance Service data. First, we used standardized incidence ratios to estimate the disease risk. Second, the hierarchical Bayesian Poisson spatio-temporal regression model was used to investigate the association between the selected bone diseases and CWF considering space and time interaction. The method for Bayesian estimation was based on the R-integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Comparing the CWF area with the non-CWF area, there was no clear evidence that exposure to CWF increased health risks at the town level in Cheongju since CWF was terminated after 2004. The posterior relative risks (RR) of hip fracture was 0.95 (95% confidence intervals 0.87, 1.05) and osteoporosis was 0.94 (0.87, 1.02). The RR in bone cancer was a little high because the sample size very small compared to the other bone diseases (RR = 1.20 (0.89, 1.61)). The relative risk of selected bone diseases (hip fractures, osteoporosis, and bone cancer) increased over time but did not increase in the CWF area compared to non-CWF areas. CWF has been used to reduce dental caries in all population groups and is known for its cost-effectiveness. These findings suggest that CWF is not associated with adverse health risks related to bone diseases. This study provides scientific evidence based on a natural experiment design. It is necessary to continue research on the well-designed epidemiological studies and develop public health prevention programs to help in make suitable polices.

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A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community.

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A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community.

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