Dataset Information

An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution.

ABSTRACT: Various approaches have been proposed to model PM2.5 in the recent decade, with satellite-derived aerosol optical depth, land-use variables, chemical transport model predictions, and several meteorological variables as major predictor variables. Our study used an ensemble model that integrated multiple machine learning algorithms and predictor variables to estimate daily PM2.5 at a resolution of 1?km?×?1?km across the contiguous United States. We used a generalized additive model that accounted for geographic difference to combine PM2.5 estimates from neural network, random forest, and gradient boosting. The three machine learning algorithms were based on multiple predictor variables, including satellite data, meteorological variables, land-use variables, elevation, chemical transport model predictions, several reanalysis datasets, and others. The model training results from 2000 to 2015 indicated good model performance with a 10-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.86 for daily PM2.5 predictions. For annual PM2.5 estimates, the cross-validated R2 was 0.89. Our model demonstrated good performance up to 60??g/m3. Using trained PM2.5 model and predictor variables, we predicted daily PM2.5 from 2000 to 2015 at every 1?km?×?1?km grid cell in the contiguous United States. We also used localized land-use variables within 1?km?×?1?km grids to downscale PM2.5 predictions to 100?m?×?100?m grid cells. To characterize uncertainty, we used meteorological variables, land-use variables, and elevation to model the monthly standard deviation of the difference between daily monitored and predicted PM2.5 for every 1?km?×?1?km grid cell. This PM2.5 prediction dataset, including the downscaled and uncertainty predictions, allows epidemiologists to accurately estimate the adverse health effect of PM2.5. Compared with model performance of individual base learners, an ensemble model would achieve a better overall estimation. It is worth exploring other ensemble model formats to synthesize estimations from different models or from different groups to improve overall performance.

SUBMITTER: Di Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7063579 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution.

Di Qian Q Amini Heresh H Shi Liuhua L Kloog Itai I Silvern Rachel R Kelly James J Sabath M Benjamin MB Choirat Christine C Koutrakis Petros P Lyapustin Alexei A Wang Yujie Y Mickley Loretta J LJ Schwartz Joel J

Environment international 20190701

Various approaches have been proposed to model PM2.5 in the recent decade, with satellite-derived aerosol optical depth, land-use variables, chemical transport model predictions, and several meteorological variables as major predictor variables. Our study used an ensemble model that integrated multiple machine learning algorithms and predictor variables to estimate daily PM2.5 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km across the contiguous United States. We used a generalized additive ...[more]

PMID: 31272018

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Project description:ObjectivesThe goals of this study were to assess the air quality in subway systems in the northeastern United States and estimate the health risks for transit workers and commuters.MethodsWe report real-time and gravimetric PM2.5 concentrations and particle composition from area samples collected in the subways of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Boston, Massachusetts; New York City, New York/New Jersey (NYC/NJ); and Washington, District of Columbia. A total of 71 stations across 12 transit lines were monitored during morning and evening rush hours.ResultsWe observed variable and high PM2.5 concentrations for on-train and on-platform measurements during morning (from 0600 hours to 1000 hours) and evening (from 1500 hours to 1900 hours) rush hour across cities. Mean real-time PM2.5 concentrations in underground stations were 779±249, 548±207, 341±147, 327±136, and 112±46.7 μg/m3 for the PATH-NYC/NJ; MTA-NYC; Washington, DC; Boston; and Philadelphia transit systems, respectively. In contrast, the mean real-time ambient PM2.5 concentration taken above ground outside the subway stations of PATH-NYC/NJ; MTA-NYC; Washington, DC; Boston; and Philadelphia were 20.8±9.3, 24.1±9.3, 12.01±7.8, 10.0±2.7, and 12.6±12.6 μg/m3, respectively. Stations serviced by the PATH-NYC/NJ system had the highest mean gravimetric PM2.5 concentration, 1,020 μg/m3, ever reported for a subway system, including two 1-h gravimetric PM2.5 values of approximately 1,700 μg/m3 during rush hour at one PATH-NYC/NJ subway station. Iron and total carbon accounted for approximately 80% of the PM2.5 mass in a targeted subset of systems and stations.DiscussionOur results document that there is an elevation in the PM2.5 concentrations across subway systems in the major urban centers of Northeastern United States during rush hours. Concentrations in some subway stations suggest that transit workers and commuters may be at increased risk according to U.S. federal environmental and occupational guidelines, depending on duration of exposure. This concern is highest for the PM2.5 concentrations encountered in the PATH-NYC/NJ transit system. Further research is urgently needed to identify the sources of PM2.5 and factors that contribute to high levels in individual stations and lines and to assess their potential health impacts on workers and/or commuters. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7202.

Project description:Since December 2019, the world has witnessed the stringent effect of an unprecedented global pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of January 29,2021, there have been 100,819,363 confirmed cases and 2,176,159 deaths reported. Among the countries affected severely by COVID-19, the United States tops the list. Research has been conducted to discuss the causal associations between explanatory factors and COVID-19 transmission in the contiguous United States. However, most of these studies focus more on spatial associations of the estimated parameters, yet exploring the time-varying dimension in spatial econometric modeling appears to be utmost essential. This research adopts various relevant approaches to explore the potential effects of driving factors on COVID-19 counts in the contiguous United States. A total of three global spatial regression models and two local spatial regression models, the latter including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multiscale GWR (MGWR), are performed at the county scale to take into account the scale effects. For COVID-19 cases, ethnicity, crime, and income factors are found to be the strongest covariates and explain most of the variance of the modeling estimation. For COVID-19 deaths, migration (domestic and international) and income factors play a critical role in explaining spatial differences of COVID-19 deaths across counties. Such associations also exhibit temporal variations from March to July, as supported by better performance of MGWR than GWR. Both global and local associations among the parameters vary highly over space and change across time. Therefore, time dimension should be paid more attention to in the spatial epidemiological analysis. Among the two local spatial regression models, MGWR performs more accurately, as it has slightly higher Adj. R2 values (for cases, R2?=?0.961; for deaths, R2?=?0.962), compared to GWR's Adj. R2 values (for cases, R2?=?0.954; for deaths, R2?=?0.954). To inform policy-makers at the nation and state levels, understanding the place-based characteristics of the explanatory forces and related spatial patterns of the driving factors is of paramount importance. Since it is not the first time humans are facing public health emergency, the findings of the present research on COVID-19 therefore can be used as a reference for policy designing and effective decision making.

Dataset Information

An ensemble-based model of PM2.5 concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution.

Publications

An ensemble-based model of PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration across the contiguous United States with high spatiotemporal resolution.

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