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External Validation and Refinement of Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade Risk Model in Patients With Heart Failure in the Emergency Department.

ABSTRACT: Background:Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) assesses the risk of death within 7 days of emergency department (ED) presentation for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). We aimed to externally validate and refine the EHMRG model in patients who presented to the ED with AHF. Methods:We performed a cohort study using administrative data for all ambulance-transported patients from Alberta (2012-2016) presenting to the ED with a primary diagnosis of AHF. Results:Among 6708 patients with AHF, the 7-day mortality was 0.0%, 0.8%, 1.6%, 4.0%, 4.2%, and 12.0% across EHMRG risk categories (1-4, 5A and 5B). The EHMRG score had a c-index of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.76) for 7-day mortality and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for 30-day mortality, but lower c-statistics for other outcomes (0.61-0.67). The inclusion of natriuretic peptides to the EHMRG model improved prediction (Net Reclassification Improvement, 0.268; 95% CI, 0.173-0.363; P < 0.01) for 7-day mortality, as did the addition of the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (Net Reclassification Improvement, 0.111; 95% CI, 0.005-0.218; P = 0.04). Conclusion:The EHMRG model exhibited moderate discriminative ability in a large population-based cohort of patients with AHF in the ED. Revision of the EHMRG score through factor inclusion and exclusion could improve the model's performance.

SUBMITTER: Sepehrvand N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7063601 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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External Validation and Refinement of Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade Risk Model in Patients With Heart Failure in the Emergency Department.

Sepehrvand Nariman N Youngson Erik E Bakal Jeffrey A JA McAlister Finlay A FA Rowe Brian H BH Ezekowitz Justin A JA

CJC open 20190412 3

<h4>Background</h4>Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) assesses the risk of death within 7 days of emergency department (ED) presentation for patients with acute heart failure (AHF). We aimed to externally validate and refine the EHMRG model in patients who presented to the ED with AHF.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a cohort study using administrative data for all ambulance-transported patients from Alberta (2012-2016) presenting to the ED with a primary diagnosis of AHF.<h4>Resul ...[more]

PMID: 32159095

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Project description:IntroductionThe purpose of this study was to validate and assess the performance of the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) to predict seven-day mortality in US patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with acute congestive heart failure (CHF) exacerbation.MethodsWe performed a retrospective chart review on patients presenting to the ED with acute CHF exacerbation between January 2014-January 2016 across eight EDs in New York. We identified patients using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10 Revisions, or who were diagnosed with CHF in the ED. Inclusion criteria were patients ≥ 18 years of age who presented to the ED for acute CHF. Exclusion criteria included the following: end-stage renal disease related heart failure; < 18 years of age; pregnancy; palliative care; renal failure; and "do not resuscitate" directive. The primary outcome was seven-day mortality. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate C-statistics and continuous net reclassification index for events and nonevents.ResultsWe identified 3,320 ED visits associated with suspected CHF among 2,495 unique patients. Of the 3,320 ED visits, 94.7% patients were admitted to the hospital and 3.4% were discharged. The median age was 78.6 (interquartile range 68.01 - 86.76). There was an overall seven-day mortality of 2%, an inpatient mortality rate of 2.4%, and no mortality among the discharge group. Adding EHMRG to the risk prediction model improved the C-statistic (from 0.748 to 0.772) and led to a higher degree of reclassification for both events and nonevents.ConclusionThe EHMRG can be used as a valuable and effective screening tool in the US while considering disposition decision for patients with acute CHF exacerbation. Emergency medical services transport and metolazone use is much higher in the US population as compared to the Canadian population. We observed minimal to no short-term mortality among discharged CHF patients from the ED.

Project description:BackgroundLoop diuretics are common therapy for emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF). Diuretic resistance (DR) is a term used to describe blunted natriuretic response to loop diuretics. It would be important to detect DR prior to it becoming clinically apparent, so early interventions can be initiated. However, several definitions have been proposed, and it is not clear if they identify similar patients. We compared these definitions and described the clinical characteristics of patients who fulfilled them.MethodsTo qualify for this secondary analysis of 1033 ED patients with AHF, all patients needed to receive intravenous diuretics in the ED and have urine available within 24 h of their ED evaluation. A poor diuretic response, suggesting DR, was characterized by (1) a fractional sodium excretion (FeNa) of less than 0.2%; (2) spot urinary sodium of less than 50 meq/L; and (3) a urinary Na/K ratio <1.0. McNemar's test was used to compare the different cohorts identified by the three definitions. Secondary analyses evaluated associations between each DR definition and hospital length of stay (LOS), ED revisits and rehospitalizations for AHF, and mortality using the Wilcoxon rank-sum tests and linear regression or Pearson chi-square test and logistic regression, as appropriate.ResultsThe median age of the 187 patients was 64, and 50% were African-American. There were 5.9% of patients with a FeNa less than 0.2%, 17.1% had urinary sodium less than 50 meq/L, and 10.7% had a urinary Na/K ratio <1.0. The three definitions identified significantly different patients with very little overlap (p < 0.02 for all comparisons). There were 37 (19.8%) patients who were readmitted to the ED or hospital or died within 30 days of ED evaluation. Patients with spot urinary sodium less than 50 meq/L were more likely to be readmitted (p = 0.03).ConclusionsThe patient proportion with poor natriuresis and DR varies depending on the definition used. Early ED therapy would be impacted at different rates if clinical decisions are made based on these definitions. These findings need to be further explored in a prospective ED-based study.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00508638.

Project description:AimsAcute heart failure (AHF) leads to a drastic increase in mortality and rehospitalization. The aim of the study was to identify prognostic variables in a real-life population of AHF patients admitted to the emergency department with acute shortness of breath.Methods and resultsWe evaluated potential predictors of mortality in 728 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency department with AHF. Possible predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality were investigated by Cox and Fine and Gray models at multivariable analysis. Among the 728 patients, 256 died during the entire follow-up, 142 of these due to CV cause. The 1 year mortality rate was 20%, with the highest risk of death during the index hospitalization (with 8% estimate in-hospital mortality at 30 days). A higher risk of events during the index hospitalization was more evident for the CV deaths, for which we found a cumulative 1 year incidence of 12% with a cumulative incidence in the first 30 days of hospitalization of about 5%. At multivariable analysis, age (P < 0.001), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV vs. I-II-III (P = 0.001), systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), non-cardiac co-morbidities (≥3 vs. 0, P = 0.05), oxygen saturation (P = 0.03), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.004; ≥50% vs. <40%, P = 0.003) were independent predictors of all-cause mortality during the entire follow-up. Age (P = 0.03), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.01), oxygen saturation (P = 0.03), serum creatinine (P = 0.02), and LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.03; ≥50% vs. <40%, P = 0.004) were independent predictors of CV mortality during the entire follow-up. NYHA class IV vs. I-II-III (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.01), and LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%, P = 0.02; ≥50% vs. <40%, P < 0.001) remained independent predictors for in-hospital death, while only serum creatinine (P = 0.04), LVEF (40-49% vs. <40%: 0.32, P = 0.04; ≥50% vs. <40%, P < 0.001), and NYHA class vs. I-II-III (P = 0.02) remained predictors for in-hospital CV mortality.ConclusionsIn this real-life cohort of patients with AHF, the results showed a similar mortality rate comparing with other analysis and with the most important registries. Age, NYHA class IV, systolic blood pressure, creatinine levels, sodium levels, and ejection fraction were independent predictors of 1 year mortality, while LVEF <40% was the only predictor of both all-cause mortality and CV mortality.

Project description:ObjectivesEarly Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18-65, 66-80, > 80 yr).DesignInternational multicenter cohort study.SettingData was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark.PatientsAll consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC).Measurements and main resultsModel performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% ( n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% ( n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89-0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82-0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80-0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5-15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories.ConclusionsThe IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years.

Dataset Information

External Validation and Refinement of Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade Risk Model in Patients With Heart Failure in the Emergency Department.

Publications

External Validation and Refinement of Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade Risk Model in Patients With Heart Failure in the Emergency Department.

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