Dataset Information

Early Prediction of Prognosis in Elderly Acute Stroke Patients.

ABSTRACT: Acute stroke has a high morbidity and mortality in elderly population. Baseline confounding illnesses, initial clinical examination, and basic laboratory tests may impact prognostics. In this study, we aimed to establish a model for predicting in-hospital mortality based on clinical data available within 12 hours of hospital admission in elderly (? 65 age) patients who experienced stroke. Design:Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting:Academic comprehensive stroke center. Patients:Elderly acute stroke patients-2005-2009 (n = 462), 2010-2012 (n = 122), and 2016-2017 (n = 123). Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:After institutional review board approval, we retrospectively queried elderly stroke patients' data from 2005 to 2009 (training dataset) to build a model to predict mortality. We designed a multivariable logistic regression model as a function of baseline severity of illness and laboratory tests, developed a nomogram, and applied it to patients from 2010 to 2012. Due to updated guidelines in 2013, we revalidated our model (2016-2017). The final model included stroke type (intracerebral hemorrhage vs ischemic stroke: odds ratio [95% CI] of 0.92 [0.50-1.68] and subarachnoid hemorrhage vs ischemic stroke: 1.0 [0.40-2.49]), year (1.01 [0.66-1.53]), age (1.78 [1.20-2.65] per 10 yr), smoking (8.0 [2.4-26.7]), mean arterial pressure less than 60?mm Hg (3.08 [1.67-5.67]), Glasgow Coma Scale (0.73 [0.66-0.80] per 1 point increment), WBC less than 11?K (0.31 [0.16-0.60]), creatinine (1.76 [1.17-2.64] for 2 vs 1), congestive heart failure (2.49 [1.06-5.82]), and warfarin (2.29 [1.17-4.47]). In summary, age, smoking, congestive heart failure, warfarin use, Glasgow Coma Scale, mean arterial pressure less than 60?mm Hg, admission WBC, and creatinine levels were independently associated with mortality in our training cohort. The model had internal area under the curve of 0.83 (0.79-0.89) after adjustment for over-fitting, indicating excellent discrimination. When applied to the test data from 2010 to 2012, the nomogram accurately predicted mortality with area under the curve of 0.79 (0.71-0.87) and scaled Brier's score of 0.17. Revalidation of the same model in the recent dataset from 2016 to 2017 confirmed accurate prediction with area under the curve of 0.83 (0.75-0.91) and scaled Brier's score of 0.27. Conclusions:Baseline medical problems, clinical severity, and basic laboratory tests available within the first 12 hours of admission provided strong independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly acute stroke patients. Our nomogram may guide interventions to improve acute care of stroke.

SUBMITTER: Bautista AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7063873 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early Prediction of Prognosis in Elderly Acute Stroke Patients.

Bautista Alexander F AF Lenhardt Rainer R Yang Dongsheng D Yu Changhong C Heine Michael F MF Mascha Edward J EJ Heine Cate C Neyer Thomas M TM Remmel Kerri K Akca Ozan O

Critical care explorations 20190429 4

Acute stroke has a high morbidity and mortality in elderly population. Baseline confounding illnesses, initial clinical examination, and basic laboratory tests may impact prognostics. In this study, we aimed to establish a model for predicting in-hospital mortality based on clinical data available within 12 hours of hospital admission in elderly (≥ 65 age) patients who experienced stroke.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective observational cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Academic comprehensive stroke center. ...[more]

PMID: 32166253

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Project description:Plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) is a risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS) but its relationship with IS outcome is uncertain. Moreover, previous studies underrepresented older IS patients, although risk of both hyperhomocysteinemia and IS increases with age. We investigated whether, in elderly patients with acute IS, tHcy measured on admission to the Stroke Unit (SU) is an independent predictor of SU discharge outcomes.Data are for 644 consecutive patients aged 80.3 ± 8.7 years, admitted to an Italian SU with diagnosis of acute IS. Plasma tHcy was measured on SU admission. Investigated outcomes included mortality during SU stay and poor functional status (modified Rankin Scale score ≥3) at SU discharge for survivors. The association of plasma tHcy with the study outcomes was assessed using Odds Ratios (OR) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) from logistic regression models adjusted for demographics, pre-stroke features, IS severity, and laboratory data on SU admission (serum C-reactive protein, serum albumin, and renal function).Median plasma tHcy was 16.7 μmol/L (interquartile range, 13.0-23.3 μmol/L). Outcome incidence was 5.3% for mortality and 49.7% for poor functional status. Plasma tHcy was unrelated to mortality in both univariate and multivariable-adjusted analyses. Conversely, plasma tHcy was associated with poor functional status of survivors in univariate analyses (P = 0.014). Multivariable-adjusted analyses showed that, compared to normal homocysteinemia (tHcy <16 μmol/L), risk of being discharged with poor functional status significantly increased for moderate (tHcy ≥30 mol/L) but not mild (16.0-29.9 μmol/L) hyperhomocysteinemia.In elderly patients with acute IS, high admission plasma tHcy is unrelated to mortality during SU stay but is an independent predictor of poor functional status at SU discharge in survivors. The association, however, is limited to patients with moderate hyperhomocysteinemia.

Project description:Background: Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) therapy is currently one of the best medical treatments available for patients with acute ischemic stroke. Studies have shown that blood pressure (BP) changes in patients treated with IVT are significantly correlated with prognosis. Objective: Our study aimed to determine the relationship between BP changes during recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) infusion and the 3-month prognosis evaluated using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and determine the factors influencing BP changes during rt-PA infusion. Methods: Consecutive patients who were treated with IVT and admitted to our stroke center between May 2015 and October 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients were divided into two groups according to their 3-month prognosis status: patients with mRS ≤ 2 were defined as "favorable outcome group" and those with mRS ≥ 3 as "unfavorable outcome group". First, the factors affecting prognosis after thrombolysis were analyzed. Second, we analyzed the relationship between BP and the prognosis. BP was taken before and at regular intervals of 15 min during the rt-PA infusion (1 h). The average value of BP during thrombolysis was calculated and compared to the baseline BP. BP decrease was defined as the difference between the baseline BP and the average BP, provided it was greater than 0 mmHg. Third, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify factors that may contribute to BP decrease. Results: In total, 458 patients were included. Patients with a lower baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (8.25 ± 5.57 vs. 13.51 ± 7.42, P < 0.001), a higher Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS; 8.65 ± 1.82 vs. 8.13 ± 2.00, P = 0.005), decreased BP during thrombolysis (69.4% vs. 59.8%, P = 0.037), and steady BP (SD < 10 mmHg) were more likely to have a favorable outcome (73.9% vs. 60.6%, P = 0.019). High baseline BP (OR > 1), hypertension history (OR < 1), and baseline ASPECTS (OR > 1) were independent factors of BP change during thrombolysis. Conclusion: Patients with decreased or steady BP during thrombolysis were more likely to have a favorable outcome. Baseline ASPECTS, baseline NIHSS score, and hypertension history influenced BP changes during thrombolysis.

Project description:Background Patients aged ≥90 were excluded or under-represented in past thrombectomy trials; thus, uncertainty remains whether treatment benefits can be expected regardless of age. This study investigates outcome and safety of thrombectomy in nonagenarians to improve decision making in a real-world setting. Methods and Results All currently available data of patients aged ≥90 enrolled in the GSR-ET (German Stroke Registry-Endovascular Treatment) were combined with a smaller cohort from 3 tertiary stroke centers. Baseline characteristics, procedural (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction scale) and functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale; mRS), as well as complications (symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage, serious adverse events; SAEs) were analyzed. Good functional outcome was defined as mRS ≤3 at 90-days. 203 patients with anterior circulation stroke and prestroke mRS ≤3 were included. The rate of successful recanalization (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction scale ≥2b) was 75.9% (154/203). Good functional outcome (mRS ≤3) was observed in 21.6% (41 of 193) at 90-days. In-hospital mortality was 27.1% (55 of 203) and increased significantly at 90 days to 48.9% (93 of 190; P<0.001). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 3% (6 of 203) of patients. Logistic regression analysis identified Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.01-3.70; P=0.046) and initial National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (adjusted odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97; P=0.014) as independent predictors for good outcome. Patients with successful recanalization had a significant (P=0.001) shift of mRS distribution with higher rates of good functional outcomes (23.8% [34 of 143] versus 14.9% [7 of 47]) and lower mortality at 90-days (46.8% [67 of 143] versus 55.3% [26 of 47]). Conclusions Despite high mortality and less frequent favorable outcome, our data suggest that thrombectomy is still effective and safe for nonagenarians. Decision making for thrombectomy in patients aged ≥90 should be based on a case-by-case basis with regard to initial National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between glucose parameters obtained by continuous glucose monitoring and clinical outcomes in acute stroke patients. METHODS AND RESULTS:Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage within 24 hours after onset were included. A continuous glucose monitoring device (iPro2) was attached for the initial 72 hours after emergent admission. Eight glucose parameters were obtained from continuous glucose monitoring: maximum, minimum, mean, and SD of blood glucose levels, as well as area under the curve more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose, distribution time more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose, coefficient of variation (%CV), and presence of time less than 4 mmol/L over 72 hours. The primary outcome measure was death or dependency at 3 months (modified Rankin Scale score ?3). One hundred patients with acute ischemic stroke (n=58) or intracerebral hemorrhage (n=42) were included. Blood glucose levels varied between 5.2±1.4 and 11.4±3.2 mmol/L over 72 hours, with area under the curve more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose of 0.7±1.4 min×mmol/L, distribution time more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose of 31.7±32.7%, coefficient of variation of 15.5±5.4%, and presence of hypoglycemia in 20% of overall patients. Mean glucose level (adjusted odds ratio, 1.60, 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.28/1 mmol/L), area under the curve more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose (2.13, 1.12-4.02/1 min×mmol/L), and distribution time more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose (1.25, 1.05-1.50/10%) were related to death or dependency for overall patients, as well as for acute ischemic stroke patients (2.05, 1.15-3.65; 2.38, 1.04-5.44; 1.85, 1.10-3.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:High mean glucose levels, distribution time more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose, and areas under the curve more than 8 mmol/L of blood glucose during the initial 72 hours of acute stroke were associated with death or dependency at 3 months.

Project description:Background and purposePatients with posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke exhibit varied clinical presentations and functional outcomes. Whether posterior circulation acute stroke prognosis early computed tomography scores (PC-ASPECTS) predict unfavorable functional outcomes (UFO) for patients treated with different therapeutic regimens is unclear.MethodsAccording to PRISMA guidelines, we performed a systematic search of electronic databases for studies assessing the functional outcomes of posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke using baseline PC-ASPECTS. The following three scales of PC-ASPECTS were retrieved: UFO prediction by using PC-ASPECTS per score decrease, UFO prediction by using binary PC-ASPECTS with a cut-off value, and the difference in PC-ASPECTS between patients with unfavorable and favorable functional outcomes. Moreover, a subgroup analysis was conducted for patients treated with intra-arterial endovascular treatment (IA-EVT) only. Sensitivity analysis with different definition of UFO and image modalities were also conducted.ResultsIn total, 25 studies were included. In scale 1, PC-ASPECTS significantly predicted UFO (odds ratio [OR]: 1.66 per score decrease, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32-2.07). In scale 2, binary PC-ASPECTS with a cut-off value between 6 and 9 significantly predicted UFO (OR: 3.91, 95% CI: 2.54-6.01). In scale 3, patients with UFO had lower PC-ASPECTS than those with favorable outcomes (standardized mean difference [SMD]: -0.67, 95% CI: -0.8 to -0.55). For patients treated with IA-EVT only, the scales demonstrated consistent results. Sensitivity analysis showed PC-ASPECTS significantly predicted UFO in both definitions of modified Rankin Scale ≥ 3 and ≥ 4, and magnetic resonance imaging was preferred imaging modality for PC-ASPECTS evaluation.ConclusionBaseline PC-ASPECTS is effective in predicting UFO for patients with posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treated with different therapeutic regimens.

Dataset Information

Early Prediction of Prognosis in Elderly Acute Stroke Patients.

Publications

Early Prediction of Prognosis in Elderly Acute Stroke Patients.

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