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Tuberculosis in Liberia: high multidrug-resistance burden, transmission and diversity modelled by multiple importation events.

ABSTRACT: Tuberculosis (TB) surveillance is scarce in most African countries, even though it is the continent with the greatest disease incidence according to the World Health Organization. Liberia is within the 30 countries with the highest TB burden, probably as a consequence of the long civil war and the recent Ebola outbreak, both crippling the health system and depreciating the TB prevention and control programmes. Due to difficulties working in the country, there is a lack of resistance surveys and bacillus characterization. Here, we use genome sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates to fill this gap. Our results highlight that the bacillus population structure is dominated by lineage 4 strains that harbour an outstanding genetic diversity, higher than in the rest of Africa as a whole. Coalescent analyses demonstrate that strains currently circulating in Liberia were introduced several times beginning in the early year 600 CE until very recently coinciding with migratory movements associated with the civil war and Ebola epidemics. A higher multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB frequency (23.5 %) than current estimates was obtained together with non-catalogued drug-resistance mutations. Additionally, 39 % of strains were in genomic clusters revealing that ongoing transmission is a major contribution to the TB burden in the country. Our report emphasizes the importance of TB surveillance and control in African countries where bacillus diversity, MDR-TB prevalence and transmission are coalescing to jeopardize TB control programmes.

SUBMITTER: Lopez MG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7067037 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis can be acquired through de-novo mutation during tuberculosis treatment or through transmission from other individuals with active MDR tuberculosis. Understanding the balance between these two mechanisms is essential when allocating resources for MDR tuberculosis. We aimed to create a dynamic transmission model of an MDR tuberculosis epidemic to estimate the contributions of treatment-related acquisition and person-to-person transmission of resistance to incident MDR tuberculosis cases.In this modelling analysis, we constructed a dynamic transmission model of an MDR tuberculosis epidemic, allowing for both treatment-related acquisition and person-to-person transmission of resistance. We used national tuberculosis notification data to inform Bayesian estimates of the proportion of each country's 2013 MDR tuberculosis incidence that resulted from MDR transmission rather than treatment-related MDR acquisition.Global estimates of 3·5% MDR tuberculosis prevalence among new tuberculosis notifications and 20·5% among re-treatment notifications translate into an estimate that resistance transmission rather than acquisition accounts for a median 95·9% (95% uncertainty range [UR] 68·0-99·6) of all incident MDR tuberculosis, and 61·3% (16·5-95·2) of incident MDR tuberculosis in previously treated individuals. The estimated proportion of MDR tuberculosis resulting from transmission varied substantially with different countries' notification data-ranging from 48% (95% UR 30-75) in Bangladesh to 99% (91-100) in Uzbekistan. Estimates were most sensitive to estimates of the transmissibility of MDR strains, the probability of acquiring MDR during tuberculosis treatment, and the responsiveness of MDR tuberculosis to first-line treatment.Notifications of MDR prevalence from most high-burden settings are consistent with most incident MDR tuberculosis resulting from transmission rather than new treatment-related acquisition of resistance. Merely improving the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis is unlikely to greatly reduce future MDR tuberculosis incidence. Improved diagnosis and treatment of MDR tuberculosis-including new tests and drug regimens-should be highly prioritised.National Institutes of Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Tuberculosis in Liberia: high multidrug-resistance burden, transmission and diversity modelled by multiple importation events.

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