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Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.

ABSTRACT: Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.

SUBMITTER: Johnson HC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7068161 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.

Johnson Helen C HC Gossner Céline M CM Colzani Edoardo E Kinsman John J Alexakis Leonidas L Beauté Julien J Würz Andrea A Tsolova Svetla S Bundle Nick N Ekdahl Karl K

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20200301 9

Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect th ...[more]

PMID: 32156332

Similar Datasets

Rapidly increasing cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the European Union/European Economic Area and the United Kingdom, 1 January to 15 March 2020.

Project description:The cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is showing similar trends in European Union/European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom confirming that, while at a different stage depending on the country, the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing rapidly in all countries. Based on the experience from Italy, countries, hospitals and intensive care units should increase their preparedness for a surge of patients with COVID-19 who will require healthcare, and in particular intensive care.

| S-EPMC7096777 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of antibiotics in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on antibiotic consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/EEA countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main antibiotic groups.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of antibiotics, i.e. antibacterials for systemic use (ATC group J01), in the community, aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Antibiotic consumption was analysed based on ATC-3 groups, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, antibiotic consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor 3.6 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. Antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA did not change significantly over time. Antibiotic consumption showed a significant seasonal variation, which decreased over time. The number of DDD per package significantly increased over time. The proportional consumption of sulphonamides and trimethoprim (J01E) relative to other groups significantly decreased over time, while the proportional consumption of other antibacterials (J01X) relative to other groups significantly increased over time.ConclusionsOverall, antibiotic consumption in the community in the EU/EEA did not change during 1997-2017, while seasonal variation consistently decreased over time. The number of DDD per package increased during 1997-2017.

| S-EPMC8314117 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of quinolones in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on quinolone consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of main subgroups of quinolones.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of quinolones, i.e. ATC group J01M, in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Quinolone consumption was analysed by subgroups based on pharmacokinetic profile, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, quinolone consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 8.2 between countries with the highest (Bulgaria) and the lowest (Norway) consumption. The second-generation quinolones accounted for >50% of quinolone consumption in most countries. Quinolone consumption significantly increased up to 2001, and did not change significantly afterwards. Seasonal variation increased significantly over time. Proportional consumption of third-generation quinolones significantly increased over time relative to that of second-generation quinolones, while proportional consumption of both third- and second-generation quinolones significantly increased relative to that of first-generation quinolones. Levofloxacin and moxifloxacin represented >40% of quinolone consumption in the community in southern EU/EEA countries.ConclusionsQuinolone consumption in the community is no longer increasing in the EU/EEA, but its seasonal variation continues to increase significantly as is the proportion of quinolones to treat respiratory infections.

| S-EPMC8314103 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of cephalosporins in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on cephalosporin consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/EEA countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main subgroups of cephalosporins.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of cephalosporins (i.e. first-, second-, third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins; ATC subgroups J01DB, J01DC, J01DD and J01DE, respectively) in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Cephalosporin consumption was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroup, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, cephalosporin consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 285 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. Cephalosporin consumption did not change significantly between the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2017. Seasonal variation decreased significantly over time. Proportional consumption of second- and third-generation cephalosporins significantly increased over time compared with that of first-generation cephalosporins, and proportional consumption of fourth-generation cephalosporins significantly decreased compared with that of second- and third-generation cephalosporins.ConclusionsDespite considerable variation between countries in the composition of cephalosporin consumption and trends over time, a significant shift towards consumption of more broad-spectrum cephalosporins in the community was observed across the EU/EEA during 1997-2017.

| S-EPMC8314097 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of penicillins in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on consumption of penicillins in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main subgroups of penicillins.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of penicillins, i.e. β-lactam antibacterials, penicillins (ATC group J01C), in the community aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of penicillins was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroups, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, consumption of penicillins in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 4.9 between countries with the highest (Spain) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. An increase in consumption of penicillins, which was not statistically significant, was observed between 1997 and 2003 and up to 2010. A decrease, which was not statistically significant, was observed from 2010 onwards. Proportional consumption of combinations of penicillins, including β-lactamase inhibitors (J01CR) increased during 1997-2017, which coincided with a decrease in the proportional consumption of extended-spectrum penicillins (J01CA) and narrow-spectrum penicillins (J01CE).ConclusionsConsiderable variation in the patterns of consumption of penicillins was observed between EU/EEA countries. The consumption of penicillins in the EU/EEA community did not change significantly over time, while the proportional consumption of combinations of penicillins increased.

| S-EPMC8314108 | biostudies-literature

Surveillance and laboratory detection for non-polio enteroviruses in the European Union/European Economic Area, 2016.

Project description:Enteroviruses (EVs) cause severe outbreaks of respiratory and neurological disease as illustrated by EV-D68 and EV-A71 outbreaks, respectively. We have mapped European laboratory capacity for identification and characterisation of non-polio EVs to improve preparedness to respond to (re)-emerging EVs linked to severe disease. An online questionnaire on non-polio EV surveillance and laboratory detection was submitted to all 30 European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries. Twenty-nine countries responded; 26 conducted laboratory-based non-polio EV surveillance, and 24 included neurological infections in their surveillance. Eleven countries have established specific surveillance for EV-D68 via sentinel influenza surveillance (n?=?7), typing EV-positive respiratory samples (n?=?10) and/or acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (n?=?5). Of 26 countries performing non-polio EV characterisation/typing, 10 further characterised culture-positive EV isolates, whereas the remainder typed PCR-positive but culture-negative samples. Although 19 countries have introduced sequence-based EV typing, seven still rely entirely on virus isolation. Based on 2015 data, six countries typed over 300 specimens mostly by sequencing, whereas 11 countries characterised under 50 EV-positive samples. EV surveillance activity varied between EU/EEA countries, and did not always specifically target patients with neurological and/or respiratory infections. Introduction of sequence-based typing methods is needed throughout the EU/EEA to enhance laboratory capacity for the detection of EVs.

| S-EPMC5718392 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of macrolides, lincosamides and streptogramins in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on the consumption of macrolides, lincosamides and streptogramins (MLS) in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in composition of the main subgroups of MLS.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of MLS, i.e. ATC group J01F, in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of MLS was analysed and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes, using a classification based on mean plasma elimination half-life for macrolides.ResultsIn 2017, consumption of MLS in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 13 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (Sweden) consumption. Consumption of MLS did not change significantly up to 2003, after which it significantly increased up to 2007. No significant change was observed after 2007. Consumption of MLS showed high seasonal variation. The proportional consumption of long-acting macrolides significantly increased over time compared with that of intermediate-acting macrolides, and proportional consumption of the latter increased compared with that of short-acting macrolides.ConclusionsConsumption of MLS did not change significantly over time during 2007-2017, while the proportional consumption of long-acting macrolides increased. Seasonal variation remained high, which suggests that MLS are still prescribed inappropriately in many countries.

| S-EPMC8314107 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of antibiotics in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017: data collection, management and analysis.

Project description:ObjectivesThis article introduces a series of articles on antibiotic consumption in the community between 1997 and 2017, which provide an update of previous articles covering the periods 1997-2003 and 1997-2009.MethodsIn this article, differences in participating countries, the ATC/DDD classification system, and data collection, validation and analysis between the current and previous series are described.ResultsIn the previous series, 33 European countries provided valid data for further analysis, while the current series focused on 30 countries belonging to the EU or the European Economic Area (EEA). For both series, data were collected in accordance with the WHO ATC classification system. While the previous series reported data in accordance with the ATC/DDD index 2011, the current series employed the ATC/DDD index 2019. Both series focused on consumption of antibacterials for systemic use (ATC J01) and collected data expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. When studying consumption expressed in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day, countries reporting total care data, i.e. community and hospital sector combined, were included in the previous series but excluded in the current series. While the previous series used non-linear mixed models to evaluate time trends in antibiotic consumption, the current series allowed for inclusion of change-points with a data-driven location. In addition, both series assessed the composition and quality of antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA.ConclusionsThe updated analyses of two decades of ESAC-Net data provide the most comprehensive and detailed description of antibiotic consumption in the community in Europe.

| S-EPMC8314094 | biostudies-literature

Consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials in the community, European Union/European Economic Area, 1997-2017.

Project description:ObjectivesData on consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of main subgroups of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim and other antibacterials.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of tetracyclines (ATC group J01A), sulphonamides and trimethoprim (ATC group J01E), and other antibacterials (ATC group J01X) in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroups and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied considerably between countries. Between 1997 and 2017, consumption of tetracyclines did not change significantly, while its seasonal variation significantly decreased over time. Consumption of sulphonamides and trimethoprim significantly decreased until 2006, and its seasonal variation significantly decreased over time. The consumption of other antibacterials showed no significant change over time or in seasonal variation.ConclusionsConsumption and composition of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials showed wide variations between EU/EEA countries and over time. This represents an opportunity to further reduce consumption of these groups in some countries and improve the quality of their prescription.

| S-EPMC8314111 | biostudies-literature

Candida auris: epidemiological situation, laboratory capacity and preparedness in the European Union and European Economic Area*, January 2018 to May 2019.

Project description:Between January 2018 and May 2019, 349 cases of Candida auris were reported in the European Union/European Economic Area*, 257 (73.6%) colonisations, 84 (24.1%) bloodstream infections, seven (2.0%) other infections and one case of unknown infection/colonisation status (0.3%). Most cases (97.1%, n = 339) were reported from Spain or the United Kingdom, but also for the first time in Greece, the Netherlands and Poland. Laboratory capacity and preparedness has improved since January 2018.

| S-EPMC7118346 | biostudies-literature

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