Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Johnson HC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7068161 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.
Johnson Helen C HC Gossner Céline M CM Colzani Edoardo E Kinsman John J Alexakis Leonidas L Beauté Julien J Würz Andrea A Tsolova Svetla S Bundle Nick N Ekdahl Karl K
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20200301 9
Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect th ...[more]
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Project description:The cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is showing similar trends in European Union/European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom confirming that, while at a different stage depending on the country, the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing rapidly in all countries. Based on the experience from Italy, countries, hospitals and intensive care units should increase their preparedness for a surge of patients with COVID-19 who will require healthcare, and in particular intensive care.
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Project description:ObjectivesData on cephalosporin consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/EEA countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main subgroups of cephalosporins.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of cephalosporins (i.e. first-, second-, third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins; ATC subgroups J01DB, J01DC, J01DD and J01DE, respectively) in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Cephalosporin consumption was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroup, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, cephalosporin consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 285 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. Cephalosporin consumption did not change significantly between the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2017. Seasonal variation decreased significantly over time. Proportional consumption of second- and third-generation cephalosporins significantly increased over time compared with that of first-generation cephalosporins, and proportional consumption of fourth-generation cephalosporins significantly decreased compared with that of second- and third-generation cephalosporins.ConclusionsDespite considerable variation between countries in the composition of cephalosporin consumption and trends over time, a significant shift towards consumption of more broad-spectrum cephalosporins in the community was observed across the EU/EEA during 1997-2017.
| S-EPMC8314097 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesData on consumption of penicillins in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main subgroups of penicillins.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of penicillins, i.e. β-lactam antibacterials, penicillins (ATC group J01C), in the community aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of penicillins was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroups, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, consumption of penicillins in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 4.9 between countries with the highest (Spain) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. An increase in consumption of penicillins, which was not statistically significant, was observed between 1997 and 2003 and up to 2010. A decrease, which was not statistically significant, was observed from 2010 onwards. Proportional consumption of combinations of penicillins, including β-lactamase inhibitors (J01CR) increased during 1997-2017, which coincided with a decrease in the proportional consumption of extended-spectrum penicillins (J01CA) and narrow-spectrum penicillins (J01CE).ConclusionsConsiderable variation in the patterns of consumption of penicillins was observed between EU/EEA countries. The consumption of penicillins in the EU/EEA community did not change significantly over time, while the proportional consumption of combinations of penicillins increased.
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Project description:ObjectivesData on antibiotic consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/EEA countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of the main antibiotic groups.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of antibiotics, i.e. antibacterials for systemic use (ATC group J01), in the community, aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Antibiotic consumption was analysed based on ATC-3 groups, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, antibiotic consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor 3.6 between countries with the highest (Greece) and the lowest (the Netherlands) consumption. Antibiotic consumption in the EU/EEA did not change significantly over time. Antibiotic consumption showed a significant seasonal variation, which decreased over time. The number of DDD per package significantly increased over time. The proportional consumption of sulphonamides and trimethoprim (J01E) relative to other groups significantly decreased over time, while the proportional consumption of other antibacterials (J01X) relative to other groups significantly increased over time.ConclusionsOverall, antibiotic consumption in the community in the EU/EEA did not change during 1997-2017, while seasonal variation consistently decreased over time. The number of DDD per package increased during 1997-2017.
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Project description:ObjectivesData on quinolone consumption in the community were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of main subgroups of quinolones.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of quinolones, i.e. ATC group J01M, in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Quinolone consumption was analysed by subgroups based on pharmacokinetic profile, and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, quinolone consumption in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied by a factor of 8.2 between countries with the highest (Bulgaria) and the lowest (Norway) consumption. The second-generation quinolones accounted for >50% of quinolone consumption in most countries. Quinolone consumption significantly increased up to 2001, and did not change significantly afterwards. Seasonal variation increased significantly over time. Proportional consumption of third-generation quinolones significantly increased over time relative to that of second-generation quinolones, while proportional consumption of both third- and second-generation quinolones significantly increased relative to that of first-generation quinolones. Levofloxacin and moxifloxacin represented >40% of quinolone consumption in the community in southern EU/EEA countries.ConclusionsQuinolone consumption in the community is no longer increasing in the EU/EEA, but its seasonal variation continues to increase significantly as is the proportion of quinolones to treat respiratory infections.
| S-EPMC8314103 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Enteroviruses (EVs) cause severe outbreaks of respiratory and neurological disease as illustrated by EV-D68 and EV-A71 outbreaks, respectively. We have mapped European laboratory capacity for identification and characterisation of non-polio EVs to improve preparedness to respond to (re)-emerging EVs linked to severe disease. An online questionnaire on non-polio EV surveillance and laboratory detection was submitted to all 30 European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries. Twenty-nine countries responded; 26 conducted laboratory-based non-polio EV surveillance, and 24 included neurological infections in their surveillance. Eleven countries have established specific surveillance for EV-D68 via sentinel influenza surveillance (n?=?7), typing EV-positive respiratory samples (n?=?10) and/or acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (n?=?5). Of 26 countries performing non-polio EV characterisation/typing, 10 further characterised culture-positive EV isolates, whereas the remainder typed PCR-positive but culture-negative samples. Although 19 countries have introduced sequence-based EV typing, seven still rely entirely on virus isolation. Based on 2015 data, six countries typed over 300 specimens mostly by sequencing, whereas 11 countries characterised under 50 EV-positive samples. EV surveillance activity varied between EU/EEA countries, and did not always specifically target patients with neurological and/or respiratory infections. Introduction of sequence-based typing methods is needed throughout the EU/EEA to enhance laboratory capacity for the detection of EVs.
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Project description:ObjectivesData on consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials were collected from 30 EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries over two decades. This article reviews temporal trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and changes in the composition of main subgroups of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim and other antibacterials.MethodsFor the period 1997-2017, data on consumption of tetracyclines (ATC group J01A), sulphonamides and trimethoprim (ATC group J01E), and other antibacterials (ATC group J01X) in the community and aggregated at the level of the active substance, were collected using the WHO ATC/DDD methodology (ATC/DDD index 2019). Consumption was expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day and in packages per 1000 inhabitants per day. Consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials was analysed based on ATC-4 subgroups and presented as trends, seasonal variation, presence of change-points and compositional changes.ResultsIn 2017, consumption of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials in the community expressed in DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day varied considerably between countries. Between 1997 and 2017, consumption of tetracyclines did not change significantly, while its seasonal variation significantly decreased over time. Consumption of sulphonamides and trimethoprim significantly decreased until 2006, and its seasonal variation significantly decreased over time. The consumption of other antibacterials showed no significant change over time or in seasonal variation.ConclusionsConsumption and composition of tetracyclines, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, and other antibacterials showed wide variations between EU/EEA countries and over time. This represents an opportunity to further reduce consumption of these groups in some countries and improve the quality of their prescription.
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Project description:This report of the EFSA and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2020 in 27 EU Member States (MS) and nine non-MS. Key statistics on zoonoses and zoonotic agents in humans, food, animals and feed are provided and interpreted historically. Two events impacted 2020 MS data collection and related statistics: the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU. In 2020, the first and second most reported zoonoses in humans were campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis, respectively. The EU trend for confirmed human cases of these two diseases was stable (flat) from 2016 to 2020. Fourteen of the 26 MS reporting data on Salmonella control programmes in poultry met the reduction targets for all poultry categories. Salmonella results for carcases of various species performed by competent authorities were more frequently positive than own-checks conducted by food business operators. This was also the case for Campylobacter quantification results from broiler carcases for the MS group that submitted data from both samplers, whereas overall at EU level, those percentages were comparable. Yersiniosis was the third most reported zoonosis in humans, with 10-fold less cases reported than salmonellosis, followed by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and Listeria monocytogenes infections. Illnesses caused by L. monocytogenes and West Nile virus infections were the most severe zoonotic diseases with the highest case fatality. In 2020, 27 MS reported 3,086 foodborne outbreaks (a 47.0% decrease from 2019) and 20,017 human cases (a 61.3% decrease). Salmonella remained the most frequently reported causative agent for foodborne outbreaks. Salmonella in 'eggs and egg products', norovirus in 'crustaceans, shellfish, molluscs and products containing them' and L. monocytogenes in 'fish and fish products' were the agent/food pairs of most concern. This report also provides updates on tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis or Mycobacterium caprae, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma, rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) and tularaemia.
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