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A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990-2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women.

ABSTRACT: Limited studies quantified the age, period, and cohort effects attributable to different risk factors on mortality rates (MRs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to breast cancer among Chinese women. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) in 2017. Mixed-effect and hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models were used to assess explicit and implicit fluctuations in MRs and DALYs attributable to different breast cancer associated risk factors. As the only risk factor, high body mass index (HBMI) showed continuously increasing trends in MRs and DALYs across ages, periods, and cohorts. Age, recent periods (2010-2015), and risk factor HBMI showed significant positive effect on MRs and DALYs (p < 0.05). Moreover, we reported significant interaction effects of older age and period in recent years in addition to the interplay of older age and risk factor HBMI on MRs and DALYs. Increased age and obesity contribute to substantially raised breast cancer MRs and DALYs in China and around the globe. These discoveries shed light on protective health policies and provision of healthy lifestyle for improving the subsequent breast cancer morbidity and mortality for China, as well as other related Asian regions that are presently facing the same public health challenges.

SUBMITTER: Mubarik S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7068251 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990-2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women.

Mubarik Sumaira S Wang Fang F Malik Saima Shakil SS Shi Fang F Wang Yafeng Y Nawsherwan Yu Chuanhua C

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200220 4

Limited studies quantified the age, period, and cohort effects attributable to different risk factors on mortality rates (MRs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to breast cancer among Chinese women. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) in 2017. Mixed-effect and hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models were used to assess explicit and implicit fluctuations in MRs and DALYs attributable to different breast cancer associated risk factors. As the only risk fact ...[more]

PMID: 32093283

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Project description:BackgroundThe Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed.MethodsBased on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources.ResultsPopulation ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors.ConclusionPopulation ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.

Project description:ImportanceCancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.ObjectiveTo estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.Evidence reviewCancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.FindingsIn 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.Conclusion and relevanceAs part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

Project description:BackgroundInfections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).MethodsWe estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance-bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011-12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature.FindingsFrom EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148-763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480-38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837-989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece.InterpretationOur results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases.FundingEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the national burdens and trends of micronutrient deficiencies can help guide effective intervention strategies. However, there is a lack of evidence of secular trends and age and sex differences in China. This study aims to elucidate trends in common micronutrient deficiencies, in particular, dietary iron, iodine and vitamin A deficiencies in China, from 1990 to 2019 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study data.MethodsPrevalence and DALYs trends of common micronutrient deficiencies from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period and cohort effects on the prevalence of common micronutrient deficiencies were estimated by an age-period-cohort model.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rates of iodine, vitamin A and dietary iron deficiencies changed by -0.6% (95% CI: -0.7% to -0.5%), -6.3% (-6.6% to -6.0%), and -3.5% (-3.6% to -3.4%) in males and + 0.8% (+ 0.6% to + 1.0%), -4.5% (-4.8% to -4.2%), and -3.3% (-3.4% to -3.2%) in females, respectively. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the iodine deficiency prevalence increased in females aged 20 years and older. The relative risk (RR) of iodine deficiency associated with the age effect peaked at 30-34 years of age and then decreased with increasing age. The RR of vitamin A deficiency decreased with age. The age distribution of the RR of iron deficiency differed significantly between sexes. The RRs of vitamin A deficiency and dietary iron deficiency decreased over time, whereas the RR of iodine deficiency substantially increased starting in 2004. The RRs of iodine deficiency and dietary iron deficiency associated with the cohort effect decreased, but the vitamin A deficiency prevalence increased in successive birth cohorts.ConclusionMicronutrient deficiency prevalence rates and associated DALYs decreased from 1990 to 2019 in China. Young adults, children aged less than 5 years, and older individuals were disproportionately affected by iodine, vitamin A, and dietary iron deficiencies, respectively. The results of this study may help identify individuals who would benefit from interventions to improve micronutrient deficiency.

Dataset Information

A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990-2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women.

Publications

A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990-2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women.

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