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Frailty assessment and risk prediction by GRACE score in older patients with acute myocardial infarction.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Risk prediction after myocardial infarction is often complex in older patients. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model includes clinical parameters and age, but not frailty. We hypothesised that frailty would enhance the prognostic properties of GRACE. METHODS:We performed a prospective observational cohort study in two independent cardiology units: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (primary cohort) and the South Yorkshire Cardiothoracic Centre, Sheffield, UK (external validation). The study sample included 198 patients ?65?years old hospitalised with type 1 myocardial infarction (primary cohort) and 96 patients ?65?years old undergoing cardiac catheterisation for myocardial infarction (external validation). Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The GRACE 2.0 estimated risk of 12-month mortality, Charlson comorbidity index and Karnofsky disability scale were also determined for each patient. RESULTS:Forty (20%) patients were frail (CFS ?5). These individuals had greater comorbidity, functional impairment and a higher risk of death at 12?months (49% vs. 9% in non-frail patients, p?

SUBMITTER: Anand A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7069195 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Frailty assessment and risk prediction by GRACE score in older patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Anand Atul A Cudmore Sarah S Robertson Shirley S Stephen Jacqueline J Haga Kristin K Weir Christopher J CJ Murray Scott A SA Boyd Kirsty K Gunn Julian J Iqbal Javaid J MacLullich Alasdair A Shenkin Susan D SD Fox Keith A A KAA Mills Nicholas N Denvir Martin A MA

BMC geriatrics 20200313 1

<h4>Background</h4>Risk prediction after myocardial infarction is often complex in older patients. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model includes clinical parameters and age, but not frailty. We hypothesised that frailty would enhance the prognostic properties of GRACE.<h4>Methods</h4>We performed a prospective observational cohort study in two independent cardiology units: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (primary cohort) and the South Yorkshire Cardiothoracic Centre, S ...[more]

PMID: 32164580

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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a clinical risk prediction tool for estimating the cumulative six month risk of death and death or myocardial infarction to facilitate triage and management of patients with acute coronary syndrome.DesignProspective multinational observational study in which we used multivariable regression to develop a final predictive model, with prospective and external validation.SettingNinety four hospitals in 14 countries in Europe, North and South America, Australia, and New Zealand.Population43,810 patients (21,688 in derivation set; 22,122 in validation set) presenting with acute coronary syndrome with or without ST segment elevation enrolled in the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) study between April 1999 and September 2005.Main outcome measuresDeath and myocardial infarction.Results1989 patients died in hospital, 1466 died between discharge and six month follow-up, and 2793 sustained a new non-fatal myocardial infarction. Nine factors independently predicted death and the combined end point of death or myocardial infarction in the period from admission to six months after discharge: age, development (or history) of heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, Killip class, initial serum creatinine concentration, elevated initial cardiac markers, cardiac arrest on admission, and ST segment deviation. The simplified model was robust, with prospectively validated C-statistics of 0.81 for predicting death and 0.73 for death or myocardial infarction from admission to six months after discharge. The external applicability of the model was validated in the dataset from GUSTO IIb (global use of strategies to open occluded coronary arteries).ConclusionsThis risk prediction tool uses readily identifiable variables to provide robust prediction of the cumulative six month risk of death or myocardial infarction. It is a rapid and widely applicable method for assessing cardiovascular risk to complement clinical assessment and can guide patient triage and management across the spectrum of patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Project description:BackgroundStrain analyses derived from cardiovascular magnetic resonance-feature tracking (CMR-FT) provide incremental prognostic benefit in patients sufferring from acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study aims to evaluate and revalidate previously reported prognostic implications of comprehensive strain analyses in a large independent cohort of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).MethodsOverall, 566 STEMI patients enrolled in the CONDITIONING-LIPSIA trial including pre- and/or postconditioning treatment in addition to conventional percutaneous coronary intervention underwent CMR imaging in median 3 days after primary percutaneous coronary intervention. CMR-based left atrial (LA) reservoir (Es), conduit (Ee), and boosterpump (Ea) strain analyses, as well as left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS), circumferential strain (GCS), and radial strain (GRS) analyses were carried out. Previously identified cutoff values were revalidated for risk stratification. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) comprising death, reinfarction, and new congestive heart failure were assessed within 12 months after the occurrence of the index event.ResultsBoth atrial and ventricular strain values were significantly reduced in patients with MACE (p < 0.01 for all). Predetermined LA and LV strain cutoffs enabled accurate risk assessment. All LA and LV strain values were associated with MACE on univariable regression modeling (p < 0.001 for all), with LA Es emerging as an independent predictor of MACE on multivariable regression modeling (HR 0.92, p = 0.033). Furthermore, LA Es provided an incremental prognostic value above LVEF (a c-index increase from 0.7 to 0.74, p = 0.03).ConclusionExternal validation of CMR-FT-derived LA and LV strain evaluations confirmed the prognostic value of cardiac deformation assessment in STEMI patients. In the present study, LA strain parameters especially enabled further risk stratification and prognostic assessment over and above clinically established risk parameters.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT02158468.

Project description:BackgroundEarly readmissions among older adults hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are costly and difficult to predict. Aging-related functional impairments may inform risk prediction but are unavailable in most studies. Our objective was to, therefore, develop and validate an AMI readmission risk model for older patients who considered functional impairments and was suitable for use before hospital discharge.Methods and resultsSILVER-AMI (Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk in Older Adults with AMI) is a prospective cohort study of 3006 patients of age ≥75 years hospitalized with AMI at 94 US hospitals. Participants underwent in-hospital assessment of functional impairments including cognition, vision, hearing, and mobility. Other variables plausibly associated with readmissions were also collected. The outcome was all-cause readmission at 30 days. We used backward selection and Bayesian model averaging to derive (N=2004) a risk model that was subsequently validated (N=1002). Mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. Within 30 days, 547 participants (18.2%) were readmitted. Readmitted participants were older, had more comorbidities, and had a higher prevalence of functional impairments, including activities of daily living disability (17.0% versus 13.0%; P=0.013) and impaired functional mobility (72.5% versus 53.6%; P<0.001). The final risk model included 8 variables: functional mobility, ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arrhythmia, acute kidney injury, first diastolic blood pressure, P2Y12 inhibitor use, and general health status. Functional mobility was the only functional impairment variable retained but was the strongest predictor. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value >0.05) with moderate discrimination (C statistics: 0.65 derivation cohort and 0.63 validation cohort). Functional mobility significantly improved performance of the risk model (net reclassification improvement index =20%; P<0.001).ConclusionsIn our final risk model, functional mobility, previously not included in readmission risk models, was the strongest predictor of 30-day readmission among older adults after AMI. The modest discrimination indicates that much of the variability in readmission risk among this population remains unexplained by patient-level factors.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01755052.

Dataset Information

Frailty assessment and risk prediction by GRACE score in older patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Publications

Frailty assessment and risk prediction by GRACE score in older patients with acute myocardial infarction.

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