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Parasite associations predict infection risk: incorporating co-infections in predictive models for neglected tropical diseases.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Schistosomiasis and infection by soil-transmitted helminths are some of the world's most prevalent neglected tropical diseases. Infection by more than one parasite (co-infection) is common and can contribute to clinical morbidity in children. Geostatistical analyses of parasite infection data are key for developing mass drug administration strategies, yet most methods ignore co-infections when estimating risk. Infection status for multiple parasites can act as a useful proxy for data-poor individual-level or environmental risk factors while avoiding regression dilution bias. Conditional random fields (CRF) is a multivariate graphical network method that opens new doors in parasite risk mapping by (i) predicting co-infections with high accuracy; (ii) isolating associations among parasites; and (iii) quantifying how these associations change across landscapes. METHODS:We built a spatial CRF to estimate infection risks for Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworms (Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus) and Schistosoma mansoni using data from a national survey of Rwandan schoolchildren. We used an ensemble learning approach to generate spatial predictions by simulating from the CRF's posterior distribution with a multivariate boosted regression tree that captured non-linear relationships between predictors and covariance in infection risks. This CRF ensemble was compared against single parasite gradient boosted machines to assess each model's performance and prediction uncertainty. RESULTS:Parasite co-infections were common, with 19.57% of children infected with at least two parasites. The CRF ensemble achieved higher predictive power than single-parasite models by improving estimates of co-infection prevalence at the individual level and classifying schools into World Health Organization treatment categories with greater accuracy. The CRF uncovered important environmental and demographic predictors of parasite infection probabilities. Yet even after capturing demographic and environmental risk factors, the presences or absences of other parasites were strong predictors of individual-level infection risk. Spatial predictions delineated high-risk regions in need of anthelminthic treatment interventions, including areas with higher than expected co-infection prevalence. CONCLUSIONS:Monitoring studies routinely screen for multiple parasites, yet statistical models generally ignore this multivariate data when assessing risk factors and designing treatment guidelines. Multivariate approaches can be instrumental in the global effort to reduce and eventually eliminate neglected helminth infections in developing countries.

SUBMITTER: Clark NJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7077138 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Parasite associations predict infection risk: incorporating co-infections in predictive models for neglected tropical diseases.

Clark Nicholas J NJ Owada Kei K Ruberanziza Eugene E Ortu Giuseppina G Umulisa Irenee I Bayisenge Ursin U Mbonigaba Jean Bosco JB Mucaca Jean Bosco JB Lancaster Warren W Fenwick Alan A Soares Magalhães Ricardo J RJ Mbituyumuremyi Aimable A

Parasites & vectors 20200316 1

<h4>Background</h4>Schistosomiasis and infection by soil-transmitted helminths are some of the world's most prevalent neglected tropical diseases. Infection by more than one parasite (co-infection) is common and can contribute to clinical morbidity in children. Geostatistical analyses of parasite infection data are key for developing mass drug administration strategies, yet most methods ignore co-infections when estimating risk. Infection status for multiple parasites can act as a useful proxy f ...[more]

PMID: 32178706

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Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization's (WHO) Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Road Map for 2021-2030 was recently endorsed by all member states at the World Health Assembly in November 2020. Although only 3 of the 20 NTDs are endemic in Canada (i.e., echinococcosis, rabies, and scabies), the Canadian research community has contributed to advancing the knowledge base of all 20 NTDs. Previous research comprehensively detailed Canadian research on 11 NTDs between 1950 and 2010 using a network analysis approach. The specific objective of the present analysis was to update the publication record over the last decade (2010-2019) to include all 20 NTDs.Materials and methodsA bibliometric analysis was conducted in Scopus and Web of Science databases (for English or French articles published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019) using appropriate search terms for each of the 20 NTDs and where at least 1 of the authors had a Canadian institution address. A 21st search was added to include publications including multiple NTDs or a discussion of NTDs in general. Following assessment of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 2 reviewers independently screened all abstracts, with discordant observations rereviewed to arrive at an agreement. Duplicates were removed.ResultsA total of 1,790 publications were retrieved (1,738 with a disease-specific NTD focus and 52 with a general NTD focus, resulting in 1,659 unique publications), giving an average of over 160 articles per year. Over 80% were classified as full-length research articles. The top 3 journals in terms of frequency were PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, PLOS ONE, and the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Authors' institutions were from all Canadian provinces. While all 20 NTDs were addressed in these publications, the 5 most commonly studied were leishmaniasis, dengue fever and chikungunya, Chagas disease, soil-transmitted helminthiases, and rabies.ConclusionsCanadian researchers across the country have contributed to the evidence base of all 20 NTDs, publishing an average of over 160 publications per year between 2010 and 2019. As WHO NTD Road Map 2021-2030 rolls out globally, the Canadian research community, in collaboration with its partners and in solidarity with people living in vulnerable circumstances in endemic regions worldwide, is well positioned to meet future research challenges so that the goal of eliminating the disease burden attributable to NTDs can be achieved.

Project description:BackgroundThe need to control Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) and sustain progress towards elimination through mass administration of medicines requires substantial communal participation. This study, therefore, assessed the knowledge and perception of attendees' regarding NTDs and its control activities during the inaugural World NTD day event in Ekiti State, Nigeria.MethodologyA cross-sectional study involving the administration of pretested semi-structured questionnaires to consenting attendees at the Inaugural World NTD day event was conducted on the 30th January, 2020. The questionnaire collected data on attendee's demography, knowledge and awareness about NTDs and its control in Nigeria. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics in SPSS. 20.0 software and expressed as frequencies and percentages. However, qualitative data to support quantitative analysis were obtained using open-ended questionnaires and analysed thematically.Principal findings/conclusionA total of 309 attendees comprising 167 (54.0%) females, and 142 (46.0%) males participated in this study. By age groupings, majority 206 (66.7%) were within 15-25 years. 167 (54.8%) of the attendees have not heard about NTDs before, whereas 77(35.0%) have heard about NTDs through the advertisement of the event. 181(63.3%) were aware of ongoing NTD control programs in schools and communities. Also, 246 (83.4%) of them have not taken or do not know anyone that has taken drugs donated in schools or communities. The number of attendees 41(13.3%) who incorrectly classified malaria as NTDs is higher than those who recognized onchocerciasis 36 (11.7%) and worm infections 34(11.0%) as NTDs (p>0.05). This study has shown that awareness and knowledge about NTDs control activities in Ekiti State is low, thus justifying the event as an awareness day for addressing NTDs. Public enlightment and regular promotional activities such as media engagement will raise the public appreciation and participation in NTDs control activities.

Dataset Information

Parasite associations predict infection risk: incorporating co-infections in predictive models for neglected tropical diseases.

Publications

Parasite associations predict infection risk: incorporating co-infections in predictive models for neglected tropical diseases.

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