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Power gains by using external information in clinical trials are typically not possible when requiring strict type I error control.

ABSTRACT: In the era of precision medicine, novel designs are developed to deal with flexible clinical trials that incorporate many treatment strategies for multiple diseases in one trial setting. This situation often leads to small sample sizes in disease-treatment combinations and has fostered the discussion about the benefits of borrowing of external or historical information for decision-making in these trials. Several methods have been proposed that dynamically discount the amount of information borrowed from historical data based on the conformity between historical and current data. Specifically, Bayesian methods have been recommended and numerous investigations have been performed to characterize the properties of the various borrowing mechanisms with respect to the gain to be expected in the trials. However, there is common understanding that the risk of type I error inflation exists when information is borrowed and many simulation studies are carried out to quantify this effect. To add transparency to the debate, we show that if prior information is conditioned upon and a uniformly most powerful test exists, strict control of type I error implies that no power gain is possible under any mechanism of incorporation of prior information, including dynamic borrowing. The basis of the argument is to consider the test decision function as a function of the current data even when external information is included. We exemplify this finding in the case of a pediatric arm appended to an adult trial and dichotomous outcome for various methods of dynamic borrowing from adult information to the pediatric arm. In conclusion, if use of relevant external data is desired, the requirement of strict type I error control has to be replaced by more appropriate metrics.

SUBMITTER: Kopp-Schneider A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7079072 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Power gains by using external information in clinical trials are typically not possible when requiring strict type I error control.

Kopp-Schneider Annette A Calderazzo Silvia S Wiesenfarth Manuel M

Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift 20190702 2

In the era of precision medicine, novel designs are developed to deal with flexible clinical trials that incorporate many treatment strategies for multiple diseases in one trial setting. This situation often leads to small sample sizes in disease-treatment combinations and has fostered the discussion about the benefits of borrowing of external or historical information for decision-making in these trials. Several methods have been proposed that dynamically discount the amount of information borr ...[more]

PMID: 31265159

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Project description:BackgroundRetrospective exploratory analyses of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) seeking to identify treatment effect heterogeneity (TEH) are prone to bias and false positives. Yet the desire to learn all we can from exhaustive data measurements on trial participants motivates the inclusion of such analyses within RCTs. Moreover, widespread advances in machine learning (ML) methods hold potential to utilise such data to identify subjects exhibiting heterogeneous treatment response.MethodsWe present a novel analysis strategy for detecting TEH in randomised data using ML methods, whilst ensuring proper control of the false positive discovery rate. Our approach uses random data partitioning with statistical or ML-based prediction on held-out data. This method can test for both crossover TEH (switch in optimal treatment) and non-crossover TEH (systematic variation in benefit across patients). The former is done via a two-sample hypothesis test measuring overall predictive performance. The latter is done via 'stacking' the ML predictors alongside a classical statistical model to formally test the added benefit of the ML algorithm. An adaptation of recent statistical theory allows for the construction of a valid aggregate p value. This testing strategy is independent of the choice of ML method.ResultsWe demonstrate our approach with a re-analysis of the SEAQUAMAT trial, which compared quinine to artesunate for the treatment of severe malaria in Asian adults. We find no evidence for any subgroup who would benefit from a change in treatment from the current standard of care, artesunate, but strong evidence for significant TEH within the artesunate treatment group. In particular, we find that artesunate provides a differential benefit to patients with high numbers of circulating ring stage parasites.ConclusionsML analysis plans using computational notebooks (documents linked to a programming language that capture the model parameter settings, data processing choices, and evaluation criteria) along with version control can improve the robustness and transparency of RCT exploratory analyses. A data-partitioning algorithm allows researchers to apply the latest ML techniques safe in the knowledge that any declared associations are statistically significant at a user-defined level.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Clinical trials are one of the most challenging and meaningful designs in medical research. One essential step before starting a clinical trial is screening, that is, to identify patients who fulfill the inclusion criteria and do not fulfill the exclusion criteria. The screening step for clinical trials might be supported by modern information technology (IT). OBJECTIVE:This explorative study aimed (1) to obtain insights into which tools for feasibility estimations and patient screening are actually used in clinical routine and (2) to determine which method and type of IT support could benefit clinical staff. METHODS:Semistandardized interviews were conducted in 5 wards (cardiology, gynecology, gastroenterology, nephrology, and palliative care) in a German university hospital. Of the 5 interviewees, 4 were directly involved in patient screening. Three of them were clinicians, 1 was a study nurse, and 1 was a research assistant. RESULTS:The existing state of study feasibility estimation and the screening procedure were dominated by human communication and estimations from memory, although there were many possibilities for IT support. Success mostly depended on the experience and personal motivation of the clinical staff. Electronic support has been used but with little importance so far. Searches in ward-specific patient registers (databases) and searches in clinical information systems were reported. Furthermore, free-text searches in medical reports were mentioned. For potential future applications, a preference for either proactive or passive systems was not expressed. Most of the interviewees saw the potential for the improvement of the actual systems, but they were also largely satisfied with the outcomes of the current approach. Most of the interviewees were interested in learning more about the various ways in which IT could support and relieve them in their clinical routine. CONCLUSIONS:Overall, IT support currently plays a minor role in the screening step for clinical trials. The lack of IT usage and the estimations made from memory reported by all the participants might constrain cognitive resources, which might distract from clinical routine. We conclude that electronic support for the screening step for clinical trials is still a challenge and that education of the staff about the possibilities for electronic support in clinical trials is necessary.

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Power gains by using external information in clinical trials are typically not possible when requiring strict type I error control.

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Power gains by using external information in clinical trials are typically not possible when requiring strict type I error control.

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