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Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy.

ABSTRACT: An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computationally efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.

SUBMITTER: Maier C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7080550 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy.

Maier Corinna C Hartung Niklas N de Wiljes Jana J Kloft Charlotte C Huisinga Wilhelm W

CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology 20200131 3

An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods ...[more]

PMID: 31905420

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Project description:BackgroundPublic health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making.MethodsAs part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools.ResultsTools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the 'actionable message(s)' from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making.ConclusionTools are available to support the process of evidence-informed decision making among public health professionals. The usability and usefulness of these tools for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making are discussed, including recommendations for the tools' application in other public health settings beyond this study. Knowledge and awareness of these tools may assist other health professionals in their efforts to implement evidence-informed practice.

Project description:Individualized treatment rules can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient prediction models are desired as a basis for such individualized treatment rules to handle potentially complex interactions between patient factors and treatment. Modern Bayesian semiparametric and nonparametric regression models provide an attractive avenue in this regard as these allow natural posterior uncertainty quantification of patient specific treatment decisions as well as the population wide value of the prediction-based individualized treatment rule. In addition, via the use of such models, inference is also available for the value of the optimal individualized treatment rules. We propose such an approach and implement it using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees as this model has been shown to perform well in fitting nonparametric regression functions to continuous and binary responses, even with many covariates. It is also computationally efficient for use in practice. With Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, we investigate a treatment strategy which utilizes individualized predictions of patient outcomes from Bayesian Additive Regression Trees models. Posterior distributions of patient outcomes under each treatment are used to assign the treatment that maximizes the expected posterior utility. We also describe how to approximate such a treatment policy with a clinically interpretable individualized treatment rule, and quantify its expected outcome. The proposed method performs very well in extensive simulation studies in comparison with several existing methods. We illustrate the usage of the proposed method to identify an individualized choice of conditioning regimen for patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation and quantify the value of this method of choice in relation to the optimal individualized treatment rule as well as non-individualized treatment strategies.

Project description:BackgroundMinistries of health in low- and middle-income countries often lack timely quality data for data-driven decision making in healthcare networks. We describe the design and implementation of decision-support electronic tools by the Ministry of Health of the State of Chiapas, in Mexico, as part of Salud Mesoamerica Initiative.MethodsThree electronic decision-support tools were designed through an iterative process focused on streamlined implementation: 1) to collect and report health facility data at health facilities; 2) to compile and analyze data at health district and central level; and, 3) to support stratified sampling of health facilities. Data was collected for five composite indicators measuring availability of equipment, medicines, and supplies for maternal and child health. Quality Assurance Teams collected data, evaluated results and supported quality improvement. Data was also analyzed at the central level and health districts for decision-making.ResultsData from 300 health facilities in four health districts was collected and analyzed (November 2014-June 2015). The first wave revealed gaps on availability of equipment and supplies in more than half of health facilities. Electronic tools provided the ministry of health officers new ways to visualize data, identify patterns and make hypothesis on root-causes. Between the first and second measurement, the number of missing items decreased, and actions performed by quality improvement teams became more proactive. In the final measurement, 89.7-100% of all health facilities achieved all the required items for each indicator.ConclusionsOur experience could help guide others seeking to implement electronic decision-support tools in low- and middle-income countries. Electronic decision-support tools supported data-driven decision-making by identifying gaps on heatmaps and graphs at the health facility, subdistrict, district or state level. Through a rapid improvement process, the Ministry of Health met targets of externally verified indicators. Using available information technology resources facilitated prompt implementation and adoption of technology.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy.

Publications

Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy.

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