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Predicting hospitalisation-associated functional decline in older patients admitted to a cardiac care unit with cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Up to one in three of older patients who are hospitalised develop functional decline, which is associated with sustained disability, institutionalisation and death. This study developed and validated a clinical prediction model that identifies patients who are at risk for functional decline during hospitalisation. The predictive value of the model was compared against three models that were developed for patients admitted to a general medical ward. METHODS:A prospective cohort study was performed on two cardiac care units between September 2016 and June 2017. Patients aged 75 years or older were recruited on admission if they were admitted for non-surgical treatment of an acute cardiovascular disease. Hospitalisation-associated functional decline was defined as any decrease on the Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living between hospital admission and discharge. Predictors were selected based on a review of the literature and a prediction score chart was developed based on a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS:A total of 189 patients were recruited and 33% developed functional decline during hospitalisation. A score chart was developed with five predictors that were measured on hospital admission: mobility impairment = 9 points, cognitive impairment = 7 points, loss of appetite = 6 points, depressive symptoms = 5 points, use of physical restraints or having an indwelling urinary catheter = 5 points. The score chart of the developed model demonstrated good calibration and discriminated adequately (C-index = 0.75, 95% CI (0.68-0.83) and better between patients with and without functional decline (chi2 = 12.8, p = 0.005) than the three previously developed models (range of C-index = 0.65-0.68). CONCLUSION:Functional decline is a prevalent complication and can be adequately predicted on hospital admission. A score chart can be used in clinical practice to identify patients who could benefit from preventive interventions. Independent external validation is needed.

SUBMITTER: Van Grootven B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7082946 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundLower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia, have been associated with short-term increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is only limited evidence about the long-term impact of pneumonia on the cardiovascular system beyond one year.MethodsWe conducted a prospective matched cohort study based on data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 482,017 adults who were enrolled between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, and were free of CVD at baseline and before pneumonia hospitalization. A total of 24,060 patients hospitalised with pneumonia were identified until December 31, 2018, and were matched on age, sex, urban or rural areas, and decile of the frailty index to 223,875 controls. We used the piecewise Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pre-specified incident CVD outcomes, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), arrhythmia, heart failure (HF), ischaemic stroke (IS), and hemorrhagic stroke (HS), at various time intervals through 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization.FindingsOf the 247,935 pneumonia cases and controls included, the mean age (standard deviation) was 53.5 (10.4), and 40.8% (101,159) were men. During follow-up, 2389 (9.9%) pneumonia cases developed IHD, 489 (2.0%) cases developed arrhythmia, 545 (2.3%) cases developed HF, 1764 (7.3%) cases developed IS, and 348 (1.4%) cases developed HS. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, health status and medication, underlying conditions, and family history of CVD, the elevated CVD risk was highest within the first 30 days after pneumonia hospitalisation, with subsequent risk reductions varying by subtypes. The elevated risk remained until the eighth year after pneumonia hospitalisation for IHD, arrhythmia, and HF, with HRs (95% CIs) of 1.48 (1.13-1.93), 2.69 (1.70-4.25), and 4.36 (2.86-6.64), respectively. The risk of stroke associated with pneumonia hospitalisation remained elevated until the seventh year for IS (HR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.63), and until the second year for HS (1.39; 1.07-1.80). The above associations were consistently observed across various characteristics of the participants.InterpretationIn middle-aged and older Chinese adults, pneumonia hospitalisation was associated with short- and long-term CVD risk, with the elevated risk of certain CVD outcomes persisting for up to 8 years.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong, the UK Wellcome Trust.

Project description:BackgroundErectile dysfunction is an emerging risk marker for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events; however, evidence on dose response and specific CVD outcomes is limited. This study investigates the relationship between severity of erectile dysfunction and specific CVD outcomes.Methods and findingsWe conducted a prospective population-based Australian study (the 45 and Up Study) linking questionnaire data from 2006-2009 with hospitalisation and death data to 30 June and 31 Dec 2010 respectively for 95,038 men aged ≥45 y. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the relationship of reported severity of erectile dysfunction to all-cause mortality and first CVD-related hospitalisation since baseline in men with and without previous CVD, adjusting for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, marital status, income, education, physical activity, body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension and/or hypercholesterolaemia treatment. There were 7,855 incident admissions for CVD and 2,304 deaths during follow-up (mean time from recruitment, 2.2 y for CVD admission and 2.8 y for mortality). Risks of CVD and death increased steadily with severity of erectile dysfunction. Among men without previous CVD, those with severe versus no erectile dysfunction had significantly increased risks of ischaemic heart disease (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.60, 95% CI 1.31-1.95), heart failure (8.00, 2.64-24.2), peripheral vascular disease (1.92, 1.12-3.29), "other" CVD (1.26, 1.05-1.51), all CVD combined (1.35, 1.19-1.53), and all-cause mortality (1.93, 1.52-2.44). For men with previous CVD, corresponding RRs (95% CI) were 1.70 (1.46-1.98), 4.40 (2.64-7.33), 2.46 (1.63-3.70), 1.40 (1.21-1.63), 1.64 (1.48-1.81), and 2.37 (1.87-3.01), respectively. Among men without previous CVD, RRs of more specific CVDs increased significantly with severe versus no erectile dysfunction, including acute myocardial infarction (1.66, 1.22-2.26), atrioventricular and left bundle branch block (6.62, 1.86-23.56), and (peripheral) atherosclerosis (2.47, 1.18-5.15), with no significant difference in risk for conditions such as primary hypertension (0.61, 0.16-2.35) and intracerebral haemorrhage (0.78, 0.20-2.97).ConclusionsThese findings give support for CVD risk assessment in men with erectile dysfunction who have not already undergone assessment. The utility of erectile dysfunction as a clinical risk prediction tool requires specific testing.

Project description:ObjectiveTo examine whether acute dysglycaemia predicts death in people admitted to hospital with community acquired pneumonia.DesignMulticentre prospective cohort study.SettingHospitals and private practices in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria.Participants6891 patients with community acquired pneumonia included in the German community acquired pneumonia competence network (CAPNETZ) study between 2003 and 2009.Main outcome measuresUnivariable and multivariable hazard ratios adjusted for sex, age, current smoking status, severity of community acquired pneumonia using the CRB-65 score (confusion, respiratory rate >30/min, systolic blood pressure ≤ 90 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mm Hg, and age ≥ 65 years), and various comorbidities for death at 28, 90, and 180 days according to serum glucose levels on admission.ResultsAn increased serum glucose level at admission to hospital in participants with community acquired pneumonia and no pre-existing diabetes was a predictor of death at 28 and 90 days. Compared with participants with normal serum glucose levels on admission, those with mild acute hyperglycaemia (serum glucose concentration 6-10.99 mmol/L) had a significantly increased risk of death at 90 days (1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.01; P<0.001), and this risk increased to 2.37 (1.62 to 3.46; P<0.001) when serum glucose concentrations were ≥ 14 mmol/L. In sensitivity analyses the predictive value of serum glucose levels on admission for death was confirmed at 28 days and 90 days. Patients with pre-existing diabetes had a significantly increased overall mortality compared with those without diabetes (crude hazard ratio 2.47, 95% confidence interval 2.05 to 2.98; P<0.001). This outcome was not significantly affected by serum glucose levels on admission (P = 0.18 for interaction).ConclusionsSerum glucose levels on admission to hospital can predict death in patients with community acquired pneumonia without pre-existing diabetes. Acute hyperglycaemia may therefore identify patients in need of intensified care to reduce the risk of death from community acquired pneumonia.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Functional decline is a strong health determinant in older adults, and chronic diseases play a major role in this age-related phenomenon. In this study, we explored possible clinical pathways underlying functional heterogeneity in older adults by quantifying the impact of cardiovascular (CV) and neuropsychiatric (NP) chronic diseases and their co-occurrence on trajectories of functional decline. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We studied 2,385 people ?60 years (range 60-101 years) participating in the Swedish National study of Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K). Participants underwent clinical examination at baseline (2001-2004) and every 3 or 6 years for up to 9 years. We grouped participants on the basis of 7 mutually exclusive clinical patterns of 0, 1, or more CV and NP diseases and their co-occurrence, from a group without any CV and NP disease to a group characterised by the presence of CV or NP multimorbidity, accompanied by at least 1 other CV or NP disorder. The group with no CV and/or NP diseases served as the reference group. Functional decline was estimated over 9 years of follow-up by measuring mobility (walking speed, m/s) and independence (ability to carry out six activities of daily living [ADL]). Mixed-effect linear regression models were used (1) to explore the individual-level prognostic predictivity of the different CV and NP clinical patterns at baseline and (2) to quantify the association between the clinical patterns and functional decline at the group level by entering the clinical patterns as time-varying measures. During the 9-year follow-up, participants with multiple CV and NP diseases had the steepest decline in walking speed (up to 0.7 m/s; p < 0.001) and ADL independence (up to three impairments in ADL, p < 0.001) (reference group: participants without any CV and NP disease). When the clinical patterns were analyzed as time varying, isolated CV multimorbidity impacted only walking speed (? -0.1; p < 0.001). Conversely, all the clinical patterns that included at least 1 NP disease were significantly associated with decline in both walking speed (? -0.21--0.08; p < 0.001) and ADL independence (? -0.27--0.06; p < 0.05). Groups with the most complex clinical patterns had 5%-20% lower functioning at follow-up than the reference group. Key limitations of the study include that we did not take into account the specific weight of single diseases and their severity and that the exclusion of participants with less than 2 assessments may have led to an underestimation of the tested associations. CONCLUSIONS:In older adults, different patterns of CV and NP morbidity lead to different trajectories of functional decline over time, a finding that explains part of the heterogeneity observed in older adults' functionality. NP diseases, alone or in association, are prevalent and major determinants of functional decline, whereas isolated CV multimorbidity is associated only with declines in mobility.

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Predicting hospitalisation-associated functional decline in older patients admitted to a cardiac care unit with cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study.

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