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Forecasts of mortality and economic losses from poor water and sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT: This paper presents country-level estimates of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)-related mortality and the economic losses associated with poor access to water and sanitation infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1990 to 2050. We examine the extent to which the changes that accompany economic growth will "solve" water and sanitation problems in SSA and, if so, how long it will take. Our simulations suggest that WASH-related mortality will continue to differ markedly across countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In many countries, expected economic growth alone will not be sufficient to eliminate WASH-related mortality or eliminate the economic losses associated with poor access to water and sanitation infrastructure by 2050. In other countries, WASH-related mortality will sharply decline, although the economic losses associated with the time spent collecting water are forecast to persist. Overall, our findings suggest that in a subset of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Angola, Niger, Sierra Leone, Chad and several others), WASH-related investments will remain a priority for decades and require a long-term, sustained effort from both the international community and national governments.

SUBMITTER: Fuente D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7083270 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasts of mortality and economic losses from poor water and sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Fuente David D Allaire Maura M Jeuland Marc M Whittington Dale D

PloS one 20200320 3

This paper presents country-level estimates of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH)-related mortality and the economic losses associated with poor access to water and sanitation infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1990 to 2050. We examine the extent to which the changes that accompany economic growth will "solve" water and sanitation problems in SSA and, if so, how long it will take. Our simulations suggest that WASH-related mortality will continue to differ markedly across countries ...[more]

PMID: 32196493

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Project description:IntroductionSub-Saharan Africa has the highest under-five mortality rate and is among the regions where people have the least access to adequate Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) services. The work aimed to investigate the effects of WASH conditions faced by children on under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsWe carried out secondary analyses using the Demographic and Health Survey datasets of 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study population consisted of children born within 5 years preceding the selected surveys. The dependent variable was the child's status (1 = deceased versus 0 = alive) on the survey day. The individual WASH conditions in which children live were assessed in their immediate environment, i.e., at the level of their households of residence. The other explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household, and environment. Following a description of the study variables, we identified the predictors of under-five mortality using a mixed logistic regression.ResultsThe analyses involved 303,985 children. Overall, 6.36% (95% CI = 6.24-6.49) of children died before their fifth birthday. The percentage of children living in households with access to individual basic WASH services was 58.15% (95% CI = 57.51-58.78), 28.18% (95% CI = 27.74-28.63), and 17.06% (95% CI = 16.71-17.41), respectively. Children living in households using unimproved water facilities (aOR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.04-1.16) or surface water (aOR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.03-1.20) were more likely to die before five than those coming from households with basic water facilities. The risk of under-five mortality was 11% higher for children living in households with limited sanitation facilities (aOR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.04-1.18) than for those with basic sanitation services. We found no evidence to support a relationship between household access to hygiene services and under-five mortality.ConclusionInterventions to reduce under-five mortality should focus on strengthening access to basic water and sanitation services. Further studies are needed to investigate the contribution of access to basic hygiene services on under-five mortality.

Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient.

Project description:COVID-19 is an active pandemic that likely poses an existential threat to humanity. Frequent handwashing, social distancing, and partial or total lockdowns are among the suite of measures prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and being implemented across the world to contain the pandemic. However, existing inequalities in access to certain basic necessities of life (water, sanitation facility, and food storage) create layered vulnerabilities to COVID-19 and can render the preventive measures ineffective or simply counterproductive. We hypothesized that individuals in households without any of the named basic necessities of life are more likely to violate the preventive (especially lockdown) measures and thereby increase the risk of infection or aid the spread of COVID-19. Based on nationally-representative data for 25 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, multivariate statistical and geospatial analyses were used to investigate whether, and to what extent, household family structure is associated with in-house access to basic needs which, in turn, could reflect on a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. The results indicate that approximately 46% of the sampled households in these countries (except South Africa) did not have in-house access to any of the three basic needs and about 8% had access to all the three basic needs. Five countries had less than 2% of their households with in-house access to all three basic needs. Ten countries had over 50% of their households with no in-house access to all the three basic needs. There is a social gradient in in-house access between the rich and the poor, urban and rural richest, male- and female-headed households, among others. We conclude that SSA governments would need to infuse innovative gender- and age-sensitive support services (such as water supply, portable sanitation) to augment the preventive measures prescribed by the WHO. Short-, medium- and long-term interventions within and across countries should necessarily address the upstream, midstream and downstream determinants of in-house access and the full spectrum of layers of inequalities including individual, interpersonal, institutional, and population levels.

Project description:BACKGROUND:We hypothesized that mass distribution of a broad-spectrum antibiotic agent to preschool children would reduce mortality in areas of sub-Saharan Africa that are currently far from meeting the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. METHODS:In this cluster-randomized trial, we assigned communities in Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania to four twice-yearly mass distributions of either oral azithromycin (approximately 20 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Children 1 to 59 months of age were identified in twice-yearly censuses and were offered participation in the trial. Vital status was determined at subsequent censuses. The primary outcome was aggregate all-cause mortality; country-specific rates were assessed in prespecified subgroup analyses. RESULTS:A total of 1533 communities underwent randomization, 190,238 children were identified in the census at baseline, and 323,302 person-years were monitored. The mean (±SD) azithromycin and placebo coverage over the four twice-yearly distributions was 90.4±10.4%. The overall annual mortality rate was 14.6 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received azithromycin (9.1 in Malawi, 22.5 in Niger, and 5.4 in Tanzania) and 16.5 deaths per 1000 person-years in communities that received placebo (9.6 in Malawi, 27.5 in Niger, and 5.5 in Tanzania). Mortality was 13.5% lower overall (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7 to 19.8) in communities that received azithromycin than in communities that received placebo (P<0.001); the rate was 5.7% lower in Malawi (95% CI, -9.7 to 18.9), 18.1% lower in Niger (95% CI, 10.0 to 25.5), and 3.4% lower in Tanzania (95% CI, -21.2 to 23.0). Children in the age group of 1 to 5 months had the greatest effect from azithromycin (24.9% lower mortality than that with placebo; 95% CI, 10.6 to 37.0). Serious adverse events occurring within a week after administration of the trial drug or placebo were uncommon, and the rate did not differ significantly between the groups. Evaluation of selection for antibiotic resistance is ongoing. CONCLUSIONS:Among postneonatal, preschool children in sub-Saharan Africa, childhood mortality was lower in communities randomly assigned to mass distribution of azithromycin than in those assigned to placebo, with the largest effect seen in Niger. Any implementation of a policy of mass distribution would need to strongly consider the potential effect of such a strategy on antibiotic resistance. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; MORDOR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02047981 .).

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Forecasts of mortality and economic losses from poor water and sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Forecasts of mortality and economic losses from poor water and sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa.

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