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Fatality risks for nosocomial outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Middle East and South Korea.

ABSTRACT: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first isolated in 2012. The largest known outbreak outside the Middle East occurred in South Korea in 2015. As of 29 June 2016, 1769 laboratory-confirmed cases (630 deaths; 35.6 % case fatality rate [CFR]) had been reported from 26 countries, particularly in the Middle East. However, the CFR for hospital outbreaks was higher than that of family clusters in the Middle East and Korea. Here, we compared the mortality rates for 51 nosocomial outbreaks in the Middle East and one outbreak of MERS-CoV in South Korea. Our findings showed the CFR in the Middle East was much higher than that in South Korea (25.9 % [56/216] vs. 13.8 % [24/174], p = 0.003). Infected individuals who died were, on average, older than those who survived in both the Middle East (64 years [25-98] vs. 46 years [2-85], p = 0.000) and South Korea (68 years [49-82] vs. 53.5 years [16-87], p = 0.000). Similarly, the co-morbidity rates for the fatal cases were statistically higher than for the nonfatal cases in both the Middle East (64.3 % [36/56] vs. 28.1 % [45/160], p = 0.000) and South Korea (45.8 % [11/24] vs. 12.0 % [18/150], p = 0.000). The median number of days from onset to confirmation of infection in the fatal cases was longer than that for survivors from the Middle East (8 days [1-47] vs. 4 days [0-14], p = 0.009). Thus, older age, pre-existing concurrent diseases, and delayed confirmation increase the odds of a fatal outcome in nosocomial MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East and South Korea.

SUBMITTER: Sha J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7087023 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fatality risks for nosocomial outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Middle East and South Korea.

Sha Jianping J Li Yuan Y Chen Xiaowen X Hu Yan Y Ren Yajin Y Geng Xingyi X Zhang Zhiruo Z Liu Shelan S

Archives of virology 20160923 1

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first isolated in 2012. The largest known outbreak outside the Middle East occurred in South Korea in 2015. As of 29 June 2016, 1769 laboratory-confirmed cases (630 deaths; 35.6 % case fatality rate [CFR]) had been reported from 26 countries, particularly in the Middle East. However, the CFR for hospital outbreaks was higher than that of family clusters in the Middle East and Korea. Here, we compared the mortality rates for 51 nosocomia ...[more]

PMID: 27664026

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Project description:Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.

Project description:BackgroundThe absence of effective antiviral medications and vaccines increased the focus on non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors for mitigating against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To examine the current status of non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors practiced during the COVID-19 outbreak and factors affecting behavioral activities, we compared to the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea.MethodsThis was a serial cross-sectional population-based study in Korea with four surveys conducted on June 2 and 25, 2015 (MERS-CoV surveys), and February 4, and April 2, 2020 (COVID-19 surveys). Of 25,711 participants selected using random digit dialing numbers, 4,011 participants (aged ≥ 18 years) were successfully interviewed, for the 2020 COVID-19 (n = 2,002) and 2015 MERS-CoV (n = 2,009) epidemics were included. Participants were selected post-stratification by sex, age, and province. The total number of weighted cases in this survey equaled the total number of unweighted cases at the national level. We measured the levels of preventive behaviors (social distancing [avoiding physical contact with others]), and practicing transmission-reducing behaviors such as wearing face mask and handwashing.ResultsBetween the surveys, respondents who reported practicing social distancing increased from 41.9%-58.2% (MERS-CoV) to 83.4%-92.3% (COVID-19). The response rate for the four surveys ranged between 13.7% and 17.7%. Practicing transmission-reducing behaviors (wearing face masks and handwashing) at least once during COVID-19 (78.8%, 80.2%) also increased compared to that during MERS-CoV (15.5%, 60.3%). The higher affective risk perception groups were more likely to practice transmission-reducing measures (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24-4.81; 95 confidence interval, 1.76-6.96) during both COVID-19 and MERS-CoV.ConclusionThe study findings suggest markedly increased proportions of non-pharmaceutical behavioral practices evenly across all subgroups during the two different novel virus outbreaks in Korea. Strategic interventions are needed to attempt based on preventive behavior works.

Project description:BACKGROUND:A Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea in 2015 started by a single imported case and was amplified by intra- and inter-hospital transmission. We describe two hospital outbreaks of MERS-CoV infection in Daejeon caused by a single patient who was infected by the first Korean case of MERS. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Demographic and clinical information involving MERS cases in the Daejeon cluster were retrospectively collected and potential contacts and exposures were assessed. The incubation periods and serial intervals were estimated. Viral RNAs were extracted from respiratory tract samples obtained from the index case, four secondary cases and one tertiary case from each hospital. The partial S2 domain of the MERS-CoV spike was sequenced. RESULTS:In Daejeon, a MERS patient (the index case) was hospitalized at Hospital A in the first week of illness and was transferred to Hospital B because of pneumonia progression in the second week of illness, where he received a bronchoscopic examination and nebulizer therapy. A total of 23 secondary cases (10 in Hospital A and 13 in Hospital B) were detected among patients and caregivers who stayed on the same ward with the index case. There were no secondary cases among healthcare workers. Among close hospital contacts, the secondary attack rate was 15.8% (12/76) in Hospital A and 14.3% (10/70) in Hospital B. However, considering the exposure duration, the incidence rate was higher in Hospital B (7.7/100 exposure-days) than Hospital A (3.4/100 exposure-days). In Hospital B, the median incubation period was shorter (4.6 days vs. 10.8 days), the median time to pneumonia development was faster (3 days vs. 6 days) and mortality was higher (70% vs. 30.8%) than in Hospital A. MERS-CoV isolates from 11 cases formed a single monophyletic clade, with the closest similarity to strains from Riyadh. CONCLUSION:Exposure to the MERS case in the late stage (2nd week) of diseases appeared to increase the risk of transmission and was associated with shorter incubation periods and rapid disease progression among those infected. Early detection and isolation of cases is critical in preventing the spread of MERS in the hospital and decreasing the disease severity among those infected.

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Fatality risks for nosocomial outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Middle East and South Korea.

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Fatality risks for nosocomial outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Middle East and South Korea.

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