Dataset Information

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

ABSTRACT: Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels.

SUBMITTER: Gikonyo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7088189 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

Gikonyo Stephen S Kimani Tabitha T Matere Joseph J Kimutai Joshua J Kiambi Stella G SG Bitek Austine O AO Juma Ngeiywa K J Z KJZ Makonnen Yilma J YJ Tripodi Astrid A Morzaria Subhash S Lubroth Juan J Rugalema Gabriel G Fasina Folorunso Oludayo FO

EcoHealth 20180316 2

Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance site ...[more]

PMID: 29549589

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Project description:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging viral disease and dromedary camels are known to be the source of human spill over events. A cross-sectional epidemiological surveillance study was carried out in Kenya in 2017 to, 1) estimate MERS-CoV antibody seropositivity in the camel-dense counties of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Laikipia and Nakuru to identify, and 2) determine the risk factors associated with seropositivity in camels. Blood samples were collected from a total of 1421 camels selected using a multi-stage sampling method. Data were also collected from camel owners or herders using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. The sera from camel samples were tested for the presence of circulating antibodies to MERS-CoV using the anti-MERS-CoV IgG ELISA test. Univariate and multivariable statistical analysis were used to investigate factors potentially associated with MERS-CoV seropositivity in camels. The overall seropositivity in camel sera was 62.9 %, with the highest seropositivity recorded in Isiolo County (77.7 %), and the lowest seropositivity recorded in Nakuru County (14.0 %). When risk factors for seropositivity were assessed, the "Type of camel production system" {(aOR = 5.40(95 %CI: 1.67-17.49)}, "Age between 1-2 years, 2-3 years and above 3 years" {(aOR = 1.64 (95 %CI: 1.04-2.59}", {(aOR = 3.27 (95 %CI: 3.66-5.61)}" and {(aOR = 6.12 (95 %CI: 4.04-9.30)} respectively and "Sex of camels" {(aOR = 1.75 (95 %CI: 1.27-2.41)} were identified as significant predictors of MERS-CoV seropositivity. Our studies indicate a high level of seropositivity to MERS-CoV in camels in the counties surveyed, and highlights the important risk factors associated with MERS-CoV seropositivity in camels. Given that MERS-CoV is a zoonosis, and Kenya possesses the fourth largest camel population in Africa, these findings are important to inform the development of efficient and risk-based prevention and mitigation strategies against MERS-CoV transmission to humans.

Dataset Information

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

Publications

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

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