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Study of cardiovascular disease prediction model based on random forest in eastern China.

ABSTRACT: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide and a major public health concern. CVD prediction is one of the most effective measures for CVD control. In this study, 29930 subjects with high-risk of CVD were selected from 101056 people in 2014, regular follow-up was conducted using electronic health record system. Logistic regression analysis showed that nearly 30 indicators were related to CVD, including male, old age, family income, smoking, drinking, obesity, excessive waist circumference, abnormal cholesterol, abnormal low-density lipoprotein, abnormal fasting blood glucose and else. Several methods were used to build prediction model including multivariate regression model, classification and regression tree (CART), Naïve Bayes, Bagged trees, Ada Boost and Random Forest. We used the multivariate regression model as a benchmark for performance evaluation (Area under the curve, AUC?=?0.7143). The results showed that the Random Forest was superior to other methods with an AUC of 0.787 and achieved a significant improvement over the benchmark. We provided a CVD prediction model for 3-year risk assessment of CVD. It was based on a large population with high risk of CVD in eastern China using Random Forest algorithm, which would provide reference for the work of CVD prediction and treatment in China.

SUBMITTER: Yang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7090086 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Study of cardiovascular disease prediction model based on random forest in eastern China.

Yang Li L Wu Haibin H Jin Xiaoqing X Zheng Pinpin P Hu Shiyun S Xu Xiaoling X Yu Wei W Yan Jing J

Scientific reports 20200323 1

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide and a major public health concern. CVD prediction is one of the most effective measures for CVD control. In this study, 29930 subjects with high-risk of CVD were selected from 101056 people in 2014, regular follow-up was conducted using electronic health record system. Logistic regression analysis showed that nearly 30 indicators were related to CVD, including male, old age, family income, smoking, drinking, obesity, excessive ...[more]

PMID: 32251324

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Project description:BackgroundA large body of evidence shows that miRNA regulates the expression of its target genes at post-transcriptional level and the dysregulation of miRNA is related to many complex human diseases. Accurately discovering disease-related miRNAs is conductive to the exploring of the pathogenesis and treatment of diseases. However, because of the limitation of time-consuming and expensive experimental methods, predicting miRNA-disease associations by computational models has become a more economical and effective mean.ResultsInspired by the work of predecessors, we proposed an improved computational model based on random forest (RF) for identifying miRNA-disease associations (IRFMDA). First, the integrated similarity of diseases and the integrated similarity of miRNAs were calculated by combining the semantic similarity and Gaussian interaction profile kernel (GIPK) similarity of diseases, the functional similarity and GIPK similarity of miRNAs, respectively. Then, the integrated similarity of diseases and the integrated similarity of miRNAs were combined to represent each miRNA-disease relationship pair. Next, the miRNA-disease relationship pairs contained in the HMDD (v2.0) database were considered positive samples, and the randomly constructed miRNA-disease relationship pairs not included in HMDD (v2.0) were considered negative samples. Next, the feature selection based on the variable importance score of RF was performed to choose more useful features to represent samples to optimize the model's ability of inferring miRNA-disease associations. Finally, a RF regression model was trained on reduced sample space to score the unknown miRNA-disease associations. The AUCs of IRFMDA under local leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), global LOOCV and 5-fold cross-validation achieved 0.8728, 0.9398 and 0.9363, which were better than several excellent models for predicting miRNA-disease associations. Moreover, case studies on oesophageal cancer, lymphoma and lung cancer showed that 94 (oesophageal cancer), 98 (lymphoma) and 100 (lung cancer) of the top 100 disease-associated miRNAs predicted by IRFMDA were supported by the experimental data in the dbDEMC (v2.0) database.ConclusionsCross-validation and case studies demonstrated that IRFMDA is an excellent miRNA-disease association prediction model, and can provide guidance and help for experimental studies on the regulatory mechanism of miRNAs in complex human diseases in the future.

Dataset Information

Study of cardiovascular disease prediction model based on random forest in eastern China.

Publications

Study of cardiovascular disease prediction model based on random forest in eastern China.

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