Application of Optimal Control to Influenza Pneumonia Coinfection with Antiviral Resistance.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kanyiri CW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7091548 | biostudies-literature | 2020
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Application of Optimal Control to Influenza Pneumonia Coinfection with Antiviral Resistance.
Kanyiri Caroline W CW Luboobi Livingstone L Kimathi Mark M
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine 20200310
Influenza and pneumonia independently lead to high morbidity and mortality annually among the human population globally; however, a glaring fact is that influenza pneumonia coinfection is more vicious and it is a threat to public health. Emergence of antiviral resistance is a major impediment in the control of the coinfection. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model illustrating the transmission dynamics of influenza pneumonia coinfection is formulated having incorporated antiviral res ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir), combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness). Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.Methods and findingsWe designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing) that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.ConclusionsThe benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance should be considered in pandemic planning and monitored closely during a pandemic.
| S-EPMC1779817 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza is a serious and frequently underestimated, but vaccine preventable disease. The adamantane derivates rimantadine and amantadine and the neuraminidase inhibitors zanamivir and oseltamivir are the only antiviral drugs currently approved in Europe for therapy and prophylaxis of influenza infections. Resistance to these drugs occurs due to mutations within the therapeutic target proteins M2 ion channel protein and viral neuraminidase. An unexpected occurrence of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal A(H1N1) viruses was detected in winter 2007/2008. The prevalence of these viruses increased rapidly and nearby all viruses circulating during the following seasons were resistant to oseltamivir. The A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses replaced the former seasonal A(H1N1) subtype during the 2009-2010 influenza season. Fortunately, resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors was detected in A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses only sporadically and was treatment related mostly. Comprehensive analyses of circulating viruses showed a high prevalence of A(H3N2) influenza viruses that are resistant to adamantane derivates since 2004/2005 and a progressive trend in the prevalence of resistant viruses up to 100% in following seasons. The M2 ion channel protein of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses is associated with the Eurasian avian-like swine lineage and thus show "natural" resistance to adamantane derivates. Therefore, only neuraminidase inhibitors are recommended for influenza treatment today. This manuscript summarizes the occurrence and spread of antiviral resistant influenza viruses and highlights the importance for developing and/or approving new antiviral compounds.
| S-EPMC6301739 | biostudies-other
Project description:Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.
| S-EPMC2493585 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSimilar to influenza, coinfections and superinfections are common and might result in poor prognosis. Our study aimed to compare the characteristics and risks of coinfections and superinfections in severe COVID-19 and influenza virus pneumonia.MethodsThe data of patients with COVID-19 and influenza admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome was to describe the prevalence and pathogenic distribution of coinfections/ICU-acquired superinfections in the study population. The secondary outcome was to evaluate the independent risk factors for coinfections/ICU-acquired superinfections at ICU admission. Multivariate analysis of survivors and non-survivors was performed to investigate whether coinfections/ICU-acquired superinfections was an independent prognostic factor.ResultsIn the COVID-19 (n = 123) and influenza (n = 145) cohorts, the incidence of coinfections/ICU-acquired superinfections was 33.3%/43.9 and 35.2%/52.4%, respectively. The most common bacteria identified in coinfection cases were Enterococcus faecium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii (COVID-19 cohort) and A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae (influenza cohort). A significant higher proportion of coinfection events was sustained by Aspergillus spp. [(22/123, 17.9% in COVID-19) and (18/145, 12.4% in influenza)]. The COVID-19 group had more cases of ICU-acquired A. baumannii, Corynebacterium striatum and K. pneumoniae. A. baumannii, P. aeruginosa, and K. pneumoniae were the three most prevalent pathogens in the influenza cases with ICU-acquired superinfections. Patients with APACHE II ≥18, CD8+ T cells ≤90/μL, and 50 < age ≤ 70 years were more susceptible to coinfections; while those with CD8+ T cells ≤90/μL, CRP ≥120 mg/L, IL-8 ≥ 20 pg./mL, blood glucose ≥10 mmol/L, hypertension, and smoking might had a higher risk of ICU-acquired superinfections in the COVID-19 group. ICU-acquired superinfection, corticosteroid administration for COVID-19 treatment before ICU admission, and SOFA score ≥ 7 were independent prognostic factors in patients with COVID-19.ConclusionPatients with COVID-19 or influenza had a high incidence of coinfections and ICU-acquired superinfections. The represent agents of coinfection in ICU patients were different from those in the general ward. These high-risk patients should be closely monitored and empirically treated with effective antibiotics according to the pathogen.
| S-EPMC10497876 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza is a major cause of severe respiratory infections leading to excessive hospitalizations and deaths globally; annual epidemics, pandemics, and sporadic/endemic avian virus infections occur as a result of rapid, continuous evolution of influenza viruses. Emergence of antiviral resistance is of great clinical and public health concern. Currently available antiviral treatments include four neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir, zanamivir, peramivir, laninamivir), M2-inibitors (amantadine, rimantadine), and a polymerase inhibitor (favipiravir). In this review, we focus on resistance issues related to the use of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs). Data on primary resistance, as well as secondary resistance related to NAI exposure will be presented. Their clinical implications, detection, and novel therapeutic options undergoing clinical trials are discussed.
| S-EPMC4584294 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Within-host models are useful tools for understanding the processes regulating viral load dynamics. While existing models have considered a wide range of within-host processes, at their core these models have shown remarkable structural similarity. Specifically, the structure of these models generally consider target cells to be either uninfected or infected, with the possibility of accommodating further resolution (e.g. cells that are in an eclipse phase). Recent findings, however, indicate that cellular coinfection is the norm rather than the exception for many viral infectious diseases, and that cells with high multiplicity of infection are present over at least some duration of an infection. The reality of these cellular coinfection dynamics is not accommodated in current within-host models although it may be critical for understanding within-host dynamics. This is particularly the case if multiplicity of infection impacts infected cell phenotypes such as their death rate and their viral production rates. Here, we present a new class of within-host disease models that allow for cellular coinfection in a scalable manner by retaining the low-dimensionality that is a desirable feature of many current within-host models. The models we propose adopt the general structure of epidemiological 'macroparasite' models that allow hosts to be variably infected by parasites such as nematodes and host phenotypes to flexibly depend on parasite burden. Specifically, our within-host models consider target cells as 'hosts' and viral particles as 'macroparasites', and allow viral output and infected cell lifespans, among other phenotypes, to depend on a cell's multiplicity of infection. We show with an application to influenza that these models can be statistically fit to viral load and other within-host data, and demonstrate using model selection approaches that they have the ability to outperform traditional within-host viral dynamic models. Important in vivo quantities such as the mean multiplicity of cellular infection and time-evolving reassortant frequencies can also be quantified in a straightforward manner once these macroparasite models have been parameterized. The within-host model structure we develop here provides a mathematical way forward to address questions related to the roles of cellular coinfection, collective viral interactions, and viral complementation in within-host viral dynamics and evolution.
| S-EPMC6613536 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Interferon (IFN) cytokines induce autonomous antiviral state in cells of the infected site to restrict virus spreading and critically regulate overall antiviral response. The antiviral state leads to host protection through expression of hundreds of IFN-stimulated genes that restrict viral infection through multiple mechanisms, for example, directly in viral genome degradation and indirectly through cellular metabolic inhibition. Young pigs were split into four treatment groups: control, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV, also known as porcine arterivirus) infected, influenza B virus (IBV) infected, and IBV/PRRSV coinfection. Lung tissue was collected at 3, 5, and 7 days post infection (dpi) for control, PRRSV and IBV/PRRSV coinfection, and at 3 and 5 dpi for IBV. Transcriptomic analysis, using usegalaxy.org tools, was performed against the S.scrofa 11.1 reference genome. Differentially expressed gene (DEG) analysis was carried out using DeSeq2 based on the model treatment + dpi + treatment:dpi + E. Downstream analysis examined the interaction of DEG at each dpi for over-enriched gene ontology (G.O.) terms and pathways. Comparisons of the infected groups vs. the controls yielded a total of (n = 1412) DEGs for the PRRSV group and (n = 1578) for the IBV/PRRSV group across all timepoints. The IBV group had (n = 64) total DEGs across 3 and 5 dpi. Expression data were considered statistically significant based on false discovery rate (FDR) ? 0.1. Venn diagram comparisons of the DEGs across dpi showed that groups shared only 16 DEGs at 3 dpi, no DEGs were shared at 5 dpi, and for 7 dpi, only the PRRSV and IBV/PRRSV groups were compared and shared a total of 43 DEGs. Across the comparisons, differential expression was observed in antiviral genes such as IRF1, MX1, and OAS2. The IBV and IBV/PRRSV groups showed higher expression of antiviral genes at earlier dpi than the PRRSV group. Additionally, downregulated genes from the comparisons clustered around Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways effecting lung development and cellular integrity. Early expression of host IFN and antiviral genes may lead to viral RNA degradation, and assembly and transcription inhibition in the IBV infections. In comparison, expression of antiviral genes in the PRRSV group decreased across time. The decrease may explain why PRRSV infections persist, while IBV clears. Moreover, all infected groups showed prolonged upregulation in neutrophil degranulation pathway activity, possibly exacerbating symptomatic lung lesion pathology seen in these respiratory infections.
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Project description:Background:Influenza causes high rates of morbidity and mortality. Genetic variability of influenza viruses generates resistance to antivirals, which are of two types, since they act on two different viral targets: adamantanes, which block the M2 ion channel, and the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors. Methods:In Mexico, the available studies on the antiviral resistance of circulating influenza strains are scarce, so this work undertook an analysis of the Mexican sequences reported in public gene banks to perform a systematic analysis of the antiviral resistance markers on both M2 and NA. In all, 284 M2 sequences and 423 NA sequences were retrieved from three genetic databases (sequences from 2000 to 2017 were considered). Results:The resistance markers to M2 blockers were present in 100% of H1N1 pdm2009, 83.6% of H3N2, and 5.8% of seasonal H1N1 sequences. Two resistance markers conferring resistance to NA inhibitors were present in seasonal H1N1 sequences, H275Y (50.0%) and N70S (33.3%). None of these viruses had both resistance markers, which are associated with oseltamivir resistance. The more frequent resistance marker in H1N1 pdm2009 NA sequences was H275Y, present in 3.6%, while S247N was present in 0.30%. Only one of the resistance-associated markers (Q136K) in NA (1.5%) was present in the analyzed H3N2 sequences, while sequences of influenza B virus did not present resistance markers to NA inhibitors. Some influenza A H1N1 pdm2009 sequences (1.8%) presented resistance markers to both M2 and NA. Conclusion:Based on the present analysis, 7.1% of the all serotypes of influenza virus A sequences analyzed in Mexico from 2000 to 2017 have mutations conferring resistance to NA inhibitors. Because of this, and the limited availability of influenza drugs, it is necessary to increase the epidemiological surveillance, including molecular analysis, which will provide data such as the presence of changes associated with antiviral resistance.
| S-EPMC6188218 | biostudies-other
Project description:There are three classes of antiviral drugs approved for the treatment of influenza: the M2 ion channel inhibitors (amantadine, rimantadine), neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (laninamivir, oseltamivir, peramivir, zanamivir), and the protease inhibitor (favipiravir); some of the agents are only available in selected countries [1, 2]. These agents are effective at treating the signs and symptoms of influenza in patients infected with susceptible viruses. Clinical failure has been demonstrated in patients infected with viruses with primary resistance, i.e., antivirals can be present in the virus initially infecting the patient, or resistance may emerge during the course of therapy [3–5]. NA inhibitors are active against all nine NA subtypes recognized in nature [6], including highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 and recent low-pathogenic avian influenza A/H7N9 viruses [7]. Since seasonal influenza is usually an acute, self-limited illness in which viral clearance usually occurs rapidly due to innate and adaptive host immune responses, the emergence of drug-resistant variants would be anticipated to have limited effect on clinical recovery in otherwise healthy patients, as has been demonstrated clinically [3, 8, 9]. Unfortunately, immunocompromised or immunologically naïve hosts, such as young children and infants or those exposed to novel strains, are more likely to have mutations that confer resistance emergence during therapy; such resistant variants may also result in clinically significant adverse outcomes [10–13].
| S-EPMC7122614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections.
| S-EPMC2266801 | biostudies-literature