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Seasonal trends of diagnosis of childhood malignant diseases and viral prevalence in South Korea.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Several studies have reported a seasonal trend in the diagnosis of childhood cancer suggesting seasonal factors such as infection. The present study aimed to analyze the diagnosis pattern of childhood malignant diseases using public health data, and to compare this pattern with seasonal viral infection trends. METHOD:Using the open data source of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, we extracted data regarding all patients under 21 years of age and who had any cancer, aplastic anemia or myelodysplastic syndrome between September 2009 and December 2013. The positive detection rates of 11 viruses was collected from the surveillance data of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and seasonality analysis were conducted with both data. RESULTS:In total, 9085 patients were diagnosed with malignant disease during the study period; there were about 175 new cases per month on average. Monthly stacked time series by year showed an apparent seasonal variation with the highest monthly average in January as 236, and the lowest in September as 120. In winter, significantly more patients were diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, neuroblastoma, and Hodgkin's lymphoma than in other seasons. There was a temporal correlation with the diagnostic trends of several diseases and the prevalence of recent human parainfluenza virus. CONCLUSION:This study tentatively suggests that the diagnosis of childhood malignancy follows a seasonal trend in Korea, and has a possible correlation with viral prevalence in several diseases. Further long-term analysis of epidemiological data is needed to explore possible causality.

SUBMITTER: Shim KS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7102810 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal trends of diagnosis of childhood malignant diseases and viral prevalence in South Korea.

Shim Kyu Seok KS Kim Min Hyung MH Shim Choong Nam CN Han Minkyu M Lim In Seok IS Chae Soo Ahn SA Yun Sin Weon SW Lee Na Mi NM Yi Dae Yong DY Kim Hyery H

Cancer epidemiology 20171108

<h4>Background</h4>Several studies have reported a seasonal trend in the diagnosis of childhood cancer suggesting seasonal factors such as infection. The present study aimed to analyze the diagnosis pattern of childhood malignant diseases using public health data, and to compare this pattern with seasonal viral infection trends.<h4>Method</h4>Using the open data source of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, we extracted data regarding all patients under 21 years of age and who ha ...[more]

PMID: 29127946

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Project description:Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis that occurs mainly in children under 5 years of age and is often accompanied by coronary artery lesions. The cause of the disease remains undetermined, but it is estimated to result from viral or bacterial infections. Certain studies have shown infection as a leading cause of KD. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between KD incidence and viral infections in different pediatric age groups, using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) Open Access Big Data Platform, to confirm seasonal trends by analyzing monthly patterns. We investigated the HIRA data of KD patients (M30.3) who were treated with intravenous immunoglobulin from 2015 to 2018. Weekly virus positive detection rate data (PDR) for this period was obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency for human adenovirus (HAdV), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV), human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV), influenza virus (IFV), human coronavirus (HCoV), human rhinovirus (HRV), human bocavirus (HBoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rotavirus, norovirus, and astrovirus. We then analyzed the weekly/monthly virus PDR and its association with KD incidence, including monthly incidence patterns, and seasonal trends. Seasonal trend analysis of the virus PDR was performed using the time series analysis method through ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Correlations between KD incidence and PDR at 1- and 2-month intervals were analyzed using the Granger test. A total of 16,740 patients were diagnosed with KD during the study period, mainly young children, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.35. Specifically, 15,635 (93%) patients were under 5 years of age, with an incidence rate of 172.4/100,000 person-years. Annually, the cumulative number of cases per month was the highest in January, with an average of 469 cases, and was the lowest in September, with an average of 291 cases, although most were diagnosed with KD in winter (29.3%). Granger tests showed that PDR for HRSV, rotavirus, and norovirus were related with KD incidence by 1 month, while PDR for HRSV, HRV, rotavirus, and norovirus by 2 months. This study found that detection rates of respiratory and enteric viruses preceded KD by 1-2 months. Further research is needed to confirm the association between these viruses and KD.

Dataset Information

Seasonal trends of diagnosis of childhood malignant diseases and viral prevalence in South Korea.

Publications

Seasonal trends of diagnosis of childhood malignant diseases and viral prevalence in South Korea.

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