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Development of a multivariable prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in high-risk people with diabetes.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Forty per cent of people with diabetes who heal from a foot ulcer recur within 1?year. The aim was to develop a prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence and to validate its predictive performance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:Data were retrieved from a prospective analysis of 171 high-risk patients with 18 months follow-up. Demographic, disease-related, biomechanical and behavioral factors were included as potential predictors. Two logistic regression models were created. Model 1 for all recurrent plantar foot ulcers (71 cases) and model 2 for those ulcers indicated to be the result of unrecognized repetitive stress (41 cases). Ten-fold cross-validation, each including five multiple imputation sets, was used to internally validate the prediction strategy; model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS:The presence of a minor lesion, living alone, increased barefoot peak plantar pressure, longer duration of having a previous foot ulcer and less variation in daily stride count were predictors of the first model. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.68 (IQR 0.61-0.80) and the Brier score was 0.24 (IQR 0.20-0.28). The predictors of the second model were presence of a minor lesion, longer duration of having a previous foot ulcer and location of the previous foot ulcer. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.76 (IQR 0.66-0.87) and the Brier score was 0.17 (IQR 0.15-0.18). CONCLUSIONS:These validated prediction models help identify those patients that are at increased risk of plantar foot ulcer recurrence and for that reason should be monitored more carefully and treated more intensively.

SUBMITTER: Aan de Stegge WB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7103819 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a multivariable prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in high-risk people with diabetes.

Aan de Stegge Wouter B WB Abu-Hanna Ameen A Bus Sicco A SA

BMJ open diabetes research & care 20200301 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>Forty per cent of people with diabetes who heal from a foot ulcer recur within 1 year. The aim was to develop a prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence and to validate its predictive performance.<h4>Research design and methods</h4>Data were retrieved from a prospective analysis of 171 high-risk patients with 18 months follow-up. Demographic, disease-related, biomechanical and behavioral factors were included as potential predictors. Two logistic regression models ...[more]

PMID: 32193202

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Project description:BACKGROUND:In people with diabetes, offloading high-risk foot regions by optimising footwear, or insoles, may prevent ulceration. This systematic review aimed to summarise and evaluate the evidence for footwear and insole features that reduce pathological plantar pressures and the occurrence of diabetic neuropathy ulceration at the plantar forefoot in people with diabetic neuropathy. METHODS:Six electronic databases (Medline, Cinahl, Amed, Proquest, Scopus, Academic Search Premier) were searched in July 2019. The search period was from 1987 to July 2019. Articles, in English, using footwear or insoles as interventions in patients with diabetic neuropathy were reviewed. Any study design was eligible for inclusion except systematic literature reviews and case reports. Search terms were diabetic foot, physiopathology, foot deformities, neuropath*, footwear, orthoses, shoe, footwear prescription, insole, sock*, ulcer prevention, offloading, foot ulcer, plantar pressure. RESULTS:Twenty-five studies were reviewed. The included articles used repeated measure (n?=?12), case-control (n?=?3), prospective cohort (n?=?2), randomised crossover (n?=?1), and randomised controlled trial (RCT) (n?=?7) designs. This involved a total of 2063 participants. Eleven studies investigated footwear, and 14 studies investigated insoles as an intervention. Six studies investigated ulcer recurrence; no study investigated the first occurrence of ulceration. The most commonly examined outcome measures were peak plantar pressure, pressure-time integral and total contact area. Methodological quality varied. Strong evidence existed for rocker soles to reduce peak plantar pressure. Moderate evidence existed for custom insoles to offload forefoot plantar pressure. There was weak evidence that insole contact area influenced plantar pressure. CONCLUSION:Rocker soles, custom-made insoles with metatarsal additions and a high degree of contact between the insole and foot reduce plantar pressures in a manner that may reduce ulcer occurrence. Most studies rely on reduction in plantar pressure measures as an outcome, rather than the occurrence of ulceration. There is limited evidence to inform footwear and insole interventions and prescription in this population. Further high-quality studies in this field are required.

Project description:Infection in diabetic foot ulcers (DFU) are one of the major complications associated with diabetic patients. Staphylococcus aureus is the most common offending pathogen in patients with infected DFU. Previous studies have suggested application of species-specific antibodies against S. aureus for diagnosis and monitoring treatment response. Early and accurate identification of the main pathogen is critical for management of DFU infection. Understanding the host immune response against species-specific infection may facilitate diagnosis and suggest potential intervention options to promote healing infected DFUs. We sought to investigate evolving host transcriptome associated with surgical treatment of S. aureus infected DFU. This study compared the transcriptome profile of twenty-one patients with S. aureus infected DFU who underwent initial foot salvage therapy with irrigation and debridement followed by intravenous antibiotics therapy. Blood samples were collected at the recruitment (0-weeks) and 8-week after therapy to isolate peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). We analyzed the PBMCs expression of transcriptomes at two different time points (0 vs 8-week). Subjects were further divided into two groups at 8-week: healed (n=17, 80.95%) versus non-healed (n=4,19.05%) based on the wound healing status. DESeq2 differential gene analysis was performed. An increased expression of IGHG1, IGHG2, IGHG3 and IGLV3-21, IGLV6-57 were noted during active infection at 0-week compared to 8-week. Lysine and arginine-rich histones (HIST1H2AJ, HIST1H2AL, HIST1H2BM, HIST1H3B and HIST1H3G) were upregulated at the initial phase of active infection at 0-week. CD177 and RRM2 were also upregulated at the initial phase of active infection (0-week) compared to 8-week follow-up. Genes of heat shock protein members (HSPA1A, HSPE1, and HSP90B1) were high in not-healed compared to healed patients 8-week after therapy. The outcome of our study suggests that identification of genes evolution based on a transcriptomic profiling could be a useful tool for diagnosing infection, assessing severity and assess host-immune response to therapies.

Project description:BackgroundThe "cancer analogy" is powerful for communicating risk to and organizing care for patients with diabetic foot syndrome. One potentially underappreciated similarity between cancer and foot ulcers is that both can recur at anatomical locations distinct from the primary occurrence, albeit with different physiological mechanisms. Few studies have characterized the location of diabetic foot ulcer recurrence, and these have been limited by considering only the first recurrent wound following a recent-healed wound. We therefore characterized the anatomical locations at which diabetic foot ulcers are likely to recur considering multiple wounds during follow-up and the locations of all prior wounds documented in the participant's history.MethodsWe completed a secondary analysis of existing data from a 129 participant multi-center study of participants in diabetic foot remission. The primary outcome was plantar foot ulceration, and each participant was followed for 34 weeks or until withdrawing consent, allowing characterization of all wounds occurring. We stratified the anatomical locations of wounds prior to the trial by the following outcome categories during the trial: no recurrence, recurrence to the same anatomical location, recurrence to a different anatomical location on the same foot, and recurrence to the contralateral foot.ResultsA large percentage (48%) of wounds recurred to the contralateral foot, and the proportion of subsequent foot ulcer to the contralateral limb was largely unaffected by the anatomical location of foot ulcer prior to the study. Only 17% of prior diabetic foot ulcers were followed by recurrence to the same anatomical location. Rates of recurrence remained high during treatment of a wound (0.41 foot ulcer/ulcer-year). Participants had documented wounds to 2.2 distinct anatomical locations on average, and more than 60% of participants had wounds to more than one plantar location by the end of the study.ConclusionsGiven the significant morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization associated with foot ulcer recidivism, quality and evidenced-based preventive care is essential. Our results better characterize the burden of recurrence and to what anatomy recurrence is most likely. These insights may benefit providers and patients alike for the provision of high-quality preventive care thereby resulting in reduced morbidity, mortality, and cost.Trial registrationThe study providing the data for this secondary analysis was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02647346) on January 6, 2016. The study was retrospectively registered.

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Development of a multivariable prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in high-risk people with diabetes.

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Development of a multivariable prediction model for plantar foot ulcer recurrence in high-risk people with diabetes.

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