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The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication.

ABSTRACT: When there is significant uncertainty in an innovation project, research literature suggests that strictly sequencing actions and stages may not be an appropriate mode of project management. We use a longitudinal process approach and qualitative system dynamics modelling to study the development of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes for malaria eradication in an African country. Our data were collected in real time, from early scientific research to deployment of the first prototype mosquitoes in the field. The 'gene drive' technology for modifying the mosquitoes is highly complex and controversial due to risks associated with its characteristics as a living, self-replicating technology. We show that in this case the innovation journey is linear and highly structured, but also embedded within a wider system of adoption that displays emergent behaviour. Although the need to control risks associated with the technology imposes a linearity to the NPD process, there are possibilities for deviation from a more structured sequence of stages. This arises from the effects of feedback loops in the wider system of evidence creation and learning at the population and governance levels, which cumulatively impact on acceptance of the innovation. The NPD and adoption processes are therefore closely intertwined, meaning that the endpoint for R&D and beginning of 'mainstream' adoption and diffusion are unclear. A key challenge for those responsible for NPD and its regulation is to plan for the adoption of the technology while simultaneously conducting its scientific and technical development.

SUBMITTER: Cisnetto V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7104890 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication.

Cisnetto Valentina V Barlow James J

Research policy 20200401 3

When there is significant uncertainty in an innovation project, research literature suggests that strictly sequencing actions and stages may not be an appropriate mode of project management. We use a longitudinal process approach and qualitative system dynamics modelling to study the development of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes for malaria eradication in an African country. Our data were collected in real time, from early scientific research to deployment of the first prototype mosquitoes ...[more]

PMID: 32255861

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Project description:BackgroundGenetically-modified (GM) mosquitoes have been proposed as part of an integrated vector control strategy for malaria control. Public acceptance is essential prior to field trials, particularly since mosquitoes are a vector of human disease and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) face strong scepticism in developed and developing nations. Despite this, in sub-Saharan Africa, where the GM mosquito effort is primarily directed, very little data is available on perspectives to GMOs. Here, results are presented of a qualitative survey of public attitudes to GM mosquitoes for malaria control in rural and urban areas of Mali, West Africa between the months of October 2008 and June 2009.MethodsThe sample consisted of 80 individuals - 30 living in rural communities, 30 living in urban suburbs of Bamako, and 20 Western-trained and traditional health professionals working in Bamako and Bandiagara. Questions were asked about the cause of malaria, heredity and selective breeding. This led to questions about genetic alterations, and acceptable conditions for a release of pest-resistant GM corn and malaria-refractory GM mosquitoes. Finally, participants were asked about the decision-making process in their community. Interviews were transcribed and responses were categorized according to general themes.ResultsMost participants cited mosquitoes as one of several causes of malaria. The concept of the gene was not widely understood; however selective breeding was understood, allowing limited communication of the concept of genetic modification. Participants were open to a release of pest-resistant GM corn, often wanting to conduct a trial themselves. The concept of a trial was reapplied to GM mosquitoes, although less frequently. Participants wanted to see evidence that GM mosquitoes can reduce malaria prevalence without negative consequences for human health and the environment. For several participants, a mosquito control programme was preferred; however a transgenic release that satisfied certain requirements was usually acceptable.ConclusionsAlthough there were some dissenters, the majority of participants were pragmatic towards a release of GM mosquitoes. An array of social and cultural issues associated with malaria, mosquitoes and genetic engineering became apparent. If these can be successfully addressed, then social acceptance among the populations surveyed seems promising.

Project description:BackgroundReproductive containment provides an opportunity to implement a staged-release strategy for genetic control of malaria vectors, in particular allowing predictions about the spread and persistence of (self-limiting) sterile and male-biased strains to be compared to outcomes before moving to (self-sustaining) gene-drive strains.MethodsIn this study, we: (i) describe a diffusion-advection-reaction model of the spread and persistence of a single cohort of male mosquitoes; (ii) elicit informative prior distributions for model parameters, for wild-type (WT) and genetically modified dominant sterile strains (DSM); (iii) estimate posterior distributions for WT strains using data from published mark-recapture-release (MRR) experiments, with inference performed through the Delayed-Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm; and (iv) weight prior distributions, in order to make predictions about genetically modified strains using Bayes factors calculated for the WT strains.ResultsIf a single cohort of 5000 genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes are released at the same location as previous MRR experiments with their WT counterparts, there is a 90% probability that the expected number of released mosquitoes will fall to < 1 in 10 days, and that by 12 days there will be a 99% probability that no mosquitoes will be found more than 150 m from the release location.ConclusionsSpread and persistence models should form a key component of risk assessments of novel genetic control strategies for malaria vectors. Our predictions, used in an independent risk assessment, suggest that genetically modified sterile male mosquitoes will remain within the locality of the release site, and that they will persist for a very limited amount of time. Data gathered following the release of these mosquitoes will enable us to test the accuracy of these predictions and also provide a means to update parameter distributions for genetic strains in a coherent (Bayesian) framework. We anticipate this will provide additional insights about how to conduct probabilistic risk assessments of stage-released genetically modified mosquitoes.

Project description:BackgroundThe use of genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs) for the control of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases has been proposed in malaria-endemic countries, such as Nigeria, which has the largest burden in Africa. Scientists are major stakeholders whose opinions and perceptions can adversely affect the success of the trials of GMMs if they are not involved early. Unfortunately, information on the awareness of Nigerians scientists and their overall perception of the GMMs is practically non-existent in the literature. Therefore, this study aimed at understanding how receptive Nigerian scientists are to a potential release of GMMs for the control of malaria.MethodsThe sample consisted of 164 scientists selected from academic and research institutions in Nigeria. Data were collected from participants using a semi-structured, self-administered questionnaire. Questions were asked about the cause and prevention of malaria, genetic modification and biotechnology. Specific questions on perception and acceptable conditions for the potential release of GM mosquitoes in Nigeria were also covered.ResultsAll participants cited mosquitoes as one of several causes of malaria and used various methods for household control of mosquitoes. The main concerns expressed by the scientists were that GMMs can spread in an uncontrolled way beyond their release sites (89%) and will mate with other mosquito species to produce hybrids with unknown consequences (94.5%). Most participants (92.7%) agreed that it was important that before approving the release of GMMs in Nigeria, there had to be evidence of contingency measures available to remove the GMMs should a hazard become evident during the course of the release. In general, a majority (83.5%) of scientists who participated in this study were sceptical about a potential release in Nigeria, while 16.5% of the participants were in support.ConclusionsAlthough a majority of the participants are sceptical about GMMs generally, most encourage the use of genetic modification techniques to make mosquitoes incapable of spreading diseases provided that there are contingency measures to remove GMMs if a hazard becomes evident during the course of the release.

Dataset Information

The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication.

Publications

The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication.

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