Dataset Information

Guns In Political Advertising Over Four US Election Cycles, 2012-18.

ABSTRACT: Gun-related deaths are on the rise in the US, and following recent mass shootings, gun policy has emerged as an issue in the 2020 election cycle. Political advertising is an increasingly important tool for candidates seeking office to communicate their policy priorities. Over $6 billion was spent on political ads in the 2016 election cycle, and spending in the 2020 cycle is expected to be even higher. Tracking gun-related political advertising over time can offer critical insights into how candidates view the salience of gun policy in the context of the 2020 election and beyond. We analyzed the coverage of guns in over fourteen million candidate-related television ad airings for presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races over four election cycles: 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The share of candidate-related ad airings that referred to guns increased from 1 percent in the 2012 cycle to over 8 percent in the 2018 cycle. Pro-gun rights content dominated but dropped from 86 percent of airings mentioning guns in the 2012 cycle to 45 percent in the 2018 cycle. Advertising in favor of gun regulation and against the National Rifle Association increased over time. These shifts offer insights into how gun issues are being framed in the 2020 election cycle.

SUBMITTER: Barry CL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7114904 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Guns In Political Advertising Over Four US Election Cycles, 2012-18.

Barry Colleen L CL Bandara Sachini S Fowler Erika Franklin EF Baum Laura L Gollust Sarah E SE Niederdeppe Jeff J Hendricks Alene Kennedy AK

Health affairs (Project Hope) 20200201 2

Gun-related deaths are on the rise in the US, and following recent mass shootings, gun policy has emerged as an issue in the 2020 election cycle. Political advertising is an increasingly important tool for candidates seeking office to communicate their policy priorities. Over $6 billion was spent on political ads in the 2016 election cycle, and spending in the 2020 cycle is expected to be even higher. Tracking gun-related political advertising over time can offer critical insights into how candi ...[more]

PMID: 32011931

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Project description:Motivation and methodExisting rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in "specific contexts". This paper offers a theoretical explanation by including unsophisticated voters into an opportunistic political cycle model; unsophisticated voters are unable to take the optimal behaviour of other agents (fully) into account, but may, nonetheless, vaguely suspect government deception.ResultsFirst, rationally expected manipulations are, on average, fruitless in equilibrium. By including unsophisticated voters we can, however, corroborate empirically found electoral effects of political budget manipulations. Second, unsophisticated voters become anxious and suspicious in an intransparent or uncertain world, but the government tries to "outperform" their scepticism by increasing budget manipulations in order to appear more competent and, ultimately, increase re-election chances. It is, therefore, not surprising that political budget cycles are observed in countries suffering from intransparencies such as developing countries or new democracies. Third and in addition, the model presented here predicts that political opportunism produces, unintentionally, a countercyclical policy effect in election years, thereby, for instance, alleviating the typical problem of policy procyclicality in developing countries.Additional contributionThe paper also offers a theoretical explanation for political distortions found in forecasts by US states. Based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts the incumbent state government can conduct expansionary fiscal policies in order to appear more competent prior to an upcoming election. Since the resulting deficit can only be observed afterwards, the government can effectively circumvent a constitutional balanced budget constraint. As a result, there are political forecast and budget cycles in the state. More generally, however, these findings may also apply to European countries where balanced budget constraints are or will be in place (for instance the debt brakes in Switzerland and Germany); similarly, they apply to the supra-national European Fiscal Compact of the European Union.

Project description:The present data set contains self-report data of German individuals participating in a longitudinal data assessment via online surveys conducted in the year preceeding the general elections in Germany. Data of N = 122 individuals are included in the data set. Those individuals participated in an initial, extensive survey between November 2020 and February 2021 (T1) as well as in a final survey after the general German elections, thus, between the end of September 2021 and October 2021 (T3). Of those individuals, n = 93 additionally participated in an intermediate survey in between the previously mentioned ones between the end of May and the end of June 2021 (T2). Next to the assessment of sociodemographic variables, information on (political) news consumption, such as the frequency of being confronted with counter-attitudinal news, and on political attitudes, for example via current voting intentions for one of the major German parties, were assessed in the initial survey (T1). In the intermediate survey (T2), participants provided information on recent political news consumption habits including the frequency of being confronted with counter-attitudinal news, current voting intentions for one of the major German parties, as well as on extraordinary events that happened recently and impacted their voting intentions. In the final survey (T3), sociodemographic variables and actual voting decisions in the general German elections in 2021 were assessed. Moreover, variables on recent political news consumption habits, including the frequency of being confronted with counter-attitudinal news, and extraordinary events that happened recently and impacted voting decisions were assessed. Finally, a detailed self-report questionnaire retrospectively assessing political news consumption for the time between participation in the initial survey (T1) and the final survey (T3) was completed by participants. Not only did this questionnaire assess which online and offline news channels (e.g., TV, print, news websites) participants used. Besides, the questionnaire included items on how many outlets per channel were used and the frequency of being confronted with counter-attitudinal news within each channel. This data set is provided alongside the present article to be used for further investigations of the stability of voting intentions, thus, political attitudes. Moreover, a content analysis of the open responses on which extraordinary events happened and impacted voting intentions/decisions can provide further knowledge on factors influencing voting intentions and their variability versus stability.

Dataset Information

Guns In Political Advertising Over Four US Election Cycles, 2012-18.

Publications

Guns In Political Advertising Over Four US Election Cycles, 2012-18.

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